Too many variables for anybody to predict with any degree of certainty.
1. Will the dwindling numbers of fellowship applicants continue for an extended period of time or is this just a blip? The general anesthesia market, by any logical projection, should remain highly lucrative for quite a while. But logical projections and what actually ends up happening are not always the same in medicine.
2. Constantly changing payment situation is an absolute wildcard. I’ve only been doing this a little over 2 years, and already in that time we have had the introduction of G2211, the start of WISeR, -2.5% efficiency adjustment on many CPTs, the rebirth and re-death of MILD, and more. The introduction of the Ambulatory Special Model looms on the horizon.
3. Will the epidemic of cluneal neuralgia continue?
All told, I think our field will be like any other field in medicine: it will absolutely get worse as time continues long term. But it will probably still be a much better field than most other specialties.