What does it really mean that all of these programs didn't fill? Does it reflect poorly on the program? Or does it mean that maybe they just didn't rank/interview enough candidates?
And does it make it easier for us rising 4th years to match at these programs next year? 🙂
Generally it reflects poorly on the program, although there is enough heterogeneity that you would have to take it on a case by case basis.
Residency programs know the approximate number of candidates they have to interview in order to fill. At one east coast program, the program director knows they generally have to go to #40-50 on their rank list to fill a class that numbers about 6-10 interns. Likewise, program directors can plan appropriately if they think that they are going to have trouble filling. For example, one of my friends is in a west coast program, and they generally interview in the neighborhood of 80 candidates. They anticipated having some problems attracting the same quality of candidates this year, so they decided to interview an additional 10 or so candidates.
So if a program doesn't fill, then the market for that program may be particularly weak, reflecting its perceived quality, or maybe the program director was simply not strategic enough (perhaps reflective of poor organizational skills).
Another possibility is that the pool of applicants (to a particular program) is shallow enough that a program could reasonably choose to risk not filling (and take its chances with applicants in the scramble) rather than risk ranking a set of poor quality candidates.
In terms of whether it makes it easy or hard to match the following year, there may be some serial correlation in competitiveness. But at some programs, that may not be the case. For example, one high quality midwestern pediatrics program did not fill several years ago, and many attributed it to poor support of its interns, some particularly problematic aspects of its program structure, and low morale overall. When they found they didn't fill, this was such a shock and embarrassment to them that the program director made some huge changes in a hurry -- and the following year they did fine in the Match.
-AT.