Oversaturation

This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.
Dharma

Dharma

Full Member
15+ Year Member
Joined
Aug 12, 2010
Messages
2,825
Reaction score
1,168
Points
5,436
Location
40.1792105,-74.0116913
  1. Attending Physician
Advertisement - Members don't see this ad
It appears as if more and more schools (D.O. and M.D.) are opening or are set to open within the next few years. Class sizes are on the increase as well. One cannot help but think this will result in an overabundance of physicians in the good ole US of A. Yes, many folks mention a shortage of physicians in primary care, however this shortage is made in reference to aging Baby Boomers.

For starters, will there be enough residency spots (both AOA and ACGME) for graduates in upcoming years or will some U.S. grads be left out in the proverbial cold?

Will new physicians eventually face the same hardships that today's law grads encounter? (Everyone has heard of John Smith, Esq who now makes a mean cafe latte at the local Starbucks but lives in mom's basement because the 9 bucks per hour can't pay off those student loans).

What happens when the numbers of Baby Boomers dwindles? This shortage everyone speaks of could become a distant memory. Are the numbers regarding this so-called shortage that reliable?

Add in the fact that there will be an infiltration of mid level health care practitioners who may attempt a quasi-hijacking of primary care provision and one may wonder just how employable tomorrow's med school grad will be.

I understand that these words may be a bit on the overly concerned (and maybe even somewhat paranoid) end of the "I'm a bit worried" spectrum, but I am honestly scared about what I am getting in to here. The prospect of being a quarter mil in debt and not having a job is most definitely a frightening one to say the very least. It's all too easy to try to ignore this fear and deal with it some other time, but looking at the current state of affairs in the world of medical education and training it would be logical to give this a good going over before jumping head first in to a mountain of debt.

What do you all think... realistically that is?
 
As long as residencies don't increase, the ones hurt will be those from FMG/IMG. Yes, specialties will become harder to get into, but that's the nature of the game.
 
The number of residencies dictates the supply of working Physicians, not the number of medical students.
 
If one day our job opportunities dwindle, then we have done our jobs.

[FONT=georgia, bookman old style, palatino linotype, book antiqua, palatino, trebuchet ms, helvetica, garamond, sans-serif, arial, verdana, avante garde, century gothic, comic sans ms, times, times new roman, serif]Medicine is the only profession that labours incessantly to destroy the reason for its own existence. ~James Bryce, 1914
.
 
Advertisement - Members don't see this ad
Dharma said:
Didn't notice that boss. There are none in the pre-osteo forums. Thank you for your insightful input.
Click to expand...

If the Allopathic section jumped off a bridge, would you want the DO section to as well?
 
JamesLMT said:
If one day our job opportunities dwindle, then we have done our jobs.

[FONT=georgia, bookman old style, palatino linotype, book antiqua, palatino, trebuchet ms, helvetica, garamond, sans-serif, arial, verdana, avante garde, century gothic, comic sans ms, times, times new roman, serif]Medicine is the only profession that labours incessantly to destroy the reason for its own existence. ~James Bryce, 1914
.
Click to expand...

Yeah, until someone finds a pill that makes all humans into Wolverine, Docs will always have jobs.

Dharma said:
Right, but will the increase in med students be met with an increase in residency spots?
Click to expand...

Seems like there will be an increase in residency spots, but probably nothing proportional to the number of increased med school spots.
 
This thread topic is everywhere: Pharmacy, Pre-Allo, you name it. The bottom line is, so what? Trust me, if you are a Dr., you are going to find a job somewhere. Will there be as many sweet rotations as there were? Yes. There will just be a few more applicants per spot. The baby boomers still haven't even reached retirement yet, for the most part, and still have 20 or so years left to go. This argument is not relevant for at least 10+ years, imo.

Basically, if you want to be a Dr., be a Dr. Would you rather be in med school busting your ass to achieve, or standing in line at McDonalds fighting it out for that sweet drive thru cashier gig?

Don't be afraid. Either way, stop trying to overanalyze a situation that is too far off in the future to worry about.
 
LastPolarBear said:
Seems like there will be an increase in residency spots, but probably nothing proportional to the number of increased med school spots.
Click to expand...


I'd gather this is somewhat of a good thing though.

Anyhow, my apologies for starting this thread. I really didn't realize there were some very lengthy discussions going on already.
 
Why is there such a lack of understanding of population growth? Even without hearing of the "Echo Boom" effect, one should understand that the baby boomers having children, even at old rates of child bearing/population growth, will result in the increase of the population and the continuation of demand for health care services (especially with our current environmental conditions promoting obeseity).

In short to explain the Echo Boom, late Boomers had children at a rate higher than previous decades and also under conditions of extended life expectancy. This increased birth rate from the Baby Boomers is typically characterized as those born from 1981-2001, i.e. our generation (or at least the majority of premeds). These
will be the people who need health care after the baby boom population ages and passes away, and whom future generations, those after gen Y (2001+) will need to take care of.
 
Dharma said:
I'd gather this is somewhat of a good thing though.

Anyhow, my apologies for starting this thread. I really didn't realize there were some very lengthy discussions going on already.
Click to expand...

Although we will not know until many years from now, are you thinking it's good since it will push more people towards primary care?
 
Go to a reputable school, do well on your boards, get into a reputable residency with a rigorous enough caseload and you should have little worries.
 
Advertisement - Members don't see this ad
LastPolarBear said:
Although we will not know until many years from now, are you thinking it's good since it will push more people towards primary care?
Click to expand...

No, I was saying I think it's good that they are not opening too many more residency spots. As far as pushing people into primary care, it would be better to see grads who actually want to practice primary medicine. Being no where close to this point, I couldn't say for myself whether I want to or not, but I'm certainly keeping an open mind about it, without a doubt. That said, not sure the best primary care physician would be one who felt pushed into it.

Anyhow, I was having a bit of a bug-out moment when I originally posted. Like a few of you said, it's all about hard work, kicking @$$ and knowing that there are no guarantees or golden tickets that come with this journey. Thanks for the words of advice. Much appreciated.
 
ruiner said:
what is 🙄y about that?
Click to expand...

The premise is fine. It's just not as easy (or as difficult depending on how you look at it).

You can go to a big time school and still be a dud.

You can go to a no-name/decent med school and still come out as a stud.

Basically, it depends on YOU, not the med school (as much).
 
Doctor4Life1769 said:
The premise is fine. It's just not as easy (or as difficult depending on how you look at it).

You can go to a big time school and still be a dud.

You can go to a no-name/decent med school and still come out as a stud.

Basically, it depends on YOU, not the med school (as much).
Click to expand...

That, and the it's so simple mentality. "Just be awesome, and you'll be ok. It's easy to be awesome, I'm going to be awesome, I suggest you do the same."
 
Nurse practitioners are much bigger worry anyways. But even so, don't forget that when everyone is forced to have health insurance, office visits should skyrocket.
 
Doctor4Life1769 said:
But dude, just be awesome! 😛👍
Click to expand...

Wait. Are you trying to tell me that it's not easy for everyone to be awesome? Dude. Strap on your awesome pants and go out there and carpe those diems.

Chucik_RyanMcPartlin-thumb-450x319-15057.jpg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom