Percentage of accepted applicants for 2011 cycle = 33%?

[dbeast]

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My pre-med advisor told me that this year's cycle has been ridiculously competitive and the projections for accepted applicants has dropped from mid 40%'s in many past years to possibly as low as 33% for this year's cycle. I know there's a lot of trash talking of advisors on this board but mine has been pretty consistently right about things...

Anyways, has anybody else heard about how competitive this cycle has been? 1 in 3 sounds really low at first, but I kind of believe it. Regardless, I think we all deserve a pat on the back for surviving the 2011 gauntlet 😎😎

 

[aSagacious]

Well, considering the fact that there are still many applicants who will eventually be accepted to their first school (from now until... July?) I'd say it's too early to speculate.

 

[vivalavie]

My pre-med advisor told me that this year's cycle has been ridiculously competitive and the projections for accepted applicants has dropped from mid 40%'s in many past years to possibly as low as 33% for this year's cycle. I know there's a lot of trash talking of advisors on this board but mine has been pretty consistently right about things...

Anyways, has anybody else heard about how competitive this cycle has been? 1 in 3 sounds really low at first, but I kind of believe it. Regardless, I think we all deserve a pat on the back for surviving the 2011 gauntlet 😎😎

Very skeptical of such a huge drop in one year. I'd believe low 40's or even 40 flat though. It's tough out there.

 

[Geneticist]

That means a more competitive waitlist too. Sucks to be you guys...

 

[TACMON]

i only see rough seas ahead for future applicants

 

[gravitywave]

i feel like we heard this same thing around this time last year and it turned out to be completely false. i'd take that with a grain of salt if i were you.

 

[tohsimas135]

Seems like every year people claim that their cycle was more competitive than usual. I find it hard to believe though considering there were 2 or 3 new schools this year.

 

[MetabolismASE]

Seems like every year people claim that their cycle was more competitive than usual. I find it hard to believe though considering there were 2 or 3 new schools this year.

Unfortunately, everyone applies to the "NEW" school because they think it will be easy.Sadly thousands of applicants think the same way making the app pool for that class even more competitive.

 

[Geneticist]

Seems like every year people claim that their cycle was more competitive than usual. I find it hard to believe though considering there were 2 or 3 new schools this year.

2 or 3 new schools may only admit 50-60 people each their first year. That is statistically insignificant considering the broad fluctuation in number of applicants from year to year.

 

[fahimaz7]

We had a total drop in applicants int he state of Georgia, so not sure what he's talking about.

 

[Ride Big Sky]

2 or 3 new schools may only admit 50-60 people each their first year. That is statistically insignificant considering the broad fluctuation in number of applicants from year to year.

Is it really statistically insignificant? Did you already run the numbers to back it up or just using fancy words to try and make you sound intelligent?

I hate when people throw around stats terms like they know what they're talking about or they actually crunched any numbers. Is 50-60 relatively small, yes. Is it statistically significant, you dont know...you didn't do any math!

 

[vivalavie]

https://www.aamc.org/download/153708/data/charts1982to2011.pdf

For those of you saying, "How can you know yet when all the decisions haven't yet been made?" stop and think.

The question is how many applicants there are and how many spots there are at medical schools, which we already know.

The numbers for this year are 18,665 spots for 42,742 spots or around 43.7 percent according the the aamc.

 

[rHinO1]

I think I'll choose to believe this one, if only because it works to inflate my already massive ego after being accepted 😛. 2015ers are awesome.

It will also allow me to use phrases that start with "back when I applied..."

 

[aSagacious]

https://www.aamc.org/download/153708/data/charts1982to2011.pdf

For those of you saying, "How can you know yet when all the decisions haven't yet been made?" stop and think.

The question is how many applicants there are and how many spots there are at medical schools, which we already know.

The numbers for this year are 18,665 spots for 42,742 spots or around 43.7 percent according the the aamc.

Touche... see I like when people use facts rather than hearsay 🙂

 

[Geneticist]

Is it really statistically insignificant? Did you already run the numbers to back it up or just using fancy words to try and make you sound intelligent?

I hate when people throw around stats terms like they know what they're talking about or they actually crunched any numbers. Is 50-60 relatively small, yes. Is it statistically significant, you dont know...you didn't do any math!

Yeah, you're right. Only a world renowned mathematician would know if 50 is statistically significant to 42,000+ without crunching the numbers. 🙄

I hate it when jackasses call out people who actually know what they're talking about.

 

[aSagacious]

You're right, only a world renowned mathematician would know if 50 is statistically insignificant to 42,000+ without crunching the numbers. 🙄

I hate it when jackasses call out people who actually know what they're talking about.

inb4therewere3schoolssoimkindofright

 

[calvnandhobbs68]

The numbers for this year are 18,665 spots for 42,742 spots or around 43.7 percent according the the aamc

And by "this year" you mean last year which we already knew

"For the 2010-2011 entering class US medical schools received 580,304 applications from 42,742 applicants.

 

[Geneticist]

inb4therewere3schoolssoimkindofright

He said 50-60 so that's what I refuted. 150-180 would still be statistically insignificant though.

 

[dbeast]

Well, considering the fact that there are still many applicants who will eventually be accepted to their first school (from now until... July?) I'd say it's too early to speculate.

I specifically asked about this which was why they had said it was a projection, taking into account future acceptance for the rest of the cycle.

 

[vivalavie]

And by "this year" you mean last year which we already knew

"For the 2010-2011 entering class US medical schools received 580,304 applications from 42,742 applicants.

My bad, on these forums I'm used to 2010-2011 being the application cycle, carry on.

 

[aSagacious]

I specifically asked about this which was why they had said it was a projection, taking into account future acceptance for the rest of the cycle.

How does one begin to extrapolate what is expected to be a 20% deviation in admission rate? The uncertainty in that calculation must be huge (Ride, go ahead and flame me for technical use of 'uncertainty'... I dare you)

 

[orthomyxo]

I guess it's gonna be one of those threads.

 

[calvnandhobbs68]

580,000 applications total though...holy crap I almost feel sorry for the schools for having to process that (if they didn't stick it to us with such high secondary fees)

 

[aSagacious]

I guess it's gonna be one of those threads.

His eyes follow you wherever you move... creepy

 

[gettheleadout]

And by "this year" you mean last year which we already knew

"For the 2010-2011 entering class US medical schools received 580,304 applications from 42,742 applicants.

Given that that data is from the last cycle, I assume data for total number of applicants for this cycle is unavailable as of yet, so how would OP's advisor know the applicants/seat ratio? (which equals acceptance rate essentially)

 

[vivalavie]

Given that that data is from the last cycle, I assume data for total number of applicants for this cycle is unavailable as of yet, so how would OP's advisor know the applicants/seat ratio? (which equals acceptance rate essentially)

yeah but everyone who was gonna apply for 2011 has applied, and that data has gotta be somewhere. I mean, it pretty much all goes through AMCAS at this point, so how hard could it be to find a central tally?

then the number of seats is easy, just look on the new med schools sites and figure out how many more seats they add (the other class sizes may vary a bit but you'll get a good estimate).

Not that I'm guessing any adviser is competent enough to do all that, but...

Somebody go find that data.

 

[Ride Big Sky]

How does one begin to extrapolate what is expected to be a 20% deviation in admission rate? The uncertainty in that calculation must be huge (Ride, go ahead and flame me for technical use of 'uncertainty'... I dare you)

Haha really...you dare me? What would you possibly do?

Yes I get annoyed with people throwing around stats terms loosely, bur seriously you dare me?!?!

 

[dbeast]

Given that that data is from the last cycle, I assume data for total number of applicants for this cycle is unavailable as of yet, so how would OP's advisor know the applicants/seat ratio? (which equals acceptance rate essentially)

That was kinda the point... supposedly my advisor just got the data for number of AMCAS applications submitted which was approx 3x the number of seats. Come on dude let's not split hairs.

Congrats to 2015 regardless of whether or not it was difficult to get in.

 

[Geneticist]

Haha really...you dare me? What would you possibly do?

Yes I get annoyed with people throwing around stats terms loosely, bur seriously you dare me?!?!

I wasn't throwing them around loosely. Someone said it should be easier to get accepted due to 2-3 new medical schools. I said 2-3 medical schools wouldn't be statistically relevant given an applicant pool of 42,000+.

Something tells me you're not the sharpest tool in the shed...

 

[vivalavie]

damn, and I was really hoping this would be the one thread I've ever posted on that didn't get jacked 🙄


somebody find that data. I'm too lazy, dammit.

 

[phonyreal98]

I'm also a bit skeptical about this...seeing as it seems like there would be a proportional increase in MCAT administrations (in 2008, there were ~76,000 administrations; in 2009, there were ~79,000 administrations; in 2010, there were ~82,000 administrations)

 

[Ride Big Sky]

Kind of ironic that you are saying I'm not that sharp when you are the one making one of the most common and simplistic mistakes regarding statistical terms. You can get all defensive and try to act superior to me. Does everyone know what you're getting at, sure, but you still misuse the term. Is it a stupidly small thing, hell yeah it is, but oh well it irks me.

You're welcome to continue tossing around insults and having your little buddy daring me if you'd like. Enjoy your night.

 

[WeAreNotRobots]

And by "this year" you mean last year which we already knew

"For the 2010-2011 entering class US medical schools received 580,304 applications from 42,742 applicants.

anyone ever think about how much money AAMC rakes in every year?!

i have.

$160/applicant * 42,742 applicants = $6,838,720
PLUS
$30/additional school * (580,304 applications - 42,742 applicants) = $16,126,860 ...
for a grand total of $22,965,580.

this is assuming no one takes advantage of the fee assistance program, but still...they are making BANK!

 

[WeAreNotRobots]

damn, and I was really hoping this would be the one thread I've ever posted on that didn't get jacked 🙄


somebody find that data. I'm too lazy, dammit.

as someone said, the data exists, but it's not out yet. i wouldn't expect it until this cycle is really over.

maybe someone who cares enough can request it. AAMC fields such inquiries at: [email protected]

EDIT: check out the metadata for that file that was posted...the document was created 10/15/2010. i'd guess we have to wait until the Fall.

 

[dbeast]

Kind of ironic that you are saying I'm not that sharp when you are the one making one of the most common and simplistic mistakes regarding statistical terms. You can get all defensive and try to act superior to me. Does everyone know what you're getting at, sure, but you still misuse the term. Is it a stupidly small thing, hell yeah it is, but oh well it irks me.

You're welcome to continue tossing around insults and having your little buddy daring me if you'd like. Enjoy your night.

I wasn't throwing them around loosely. Someone said it should be easier to get accepted due to 2-3 new medical schools. I said 2-3 medical schools wouldn't be statistically relevant given an applicant pool of 42,000+.

Something tells me you're not the sharpest tool in the shed...

You guys need to stop flirting. It's making me nauseous and this is a public forum.

 

[deleted357625]

The percentage of acceptance is bad because the idiots that have no idea why they are applying or know for sure they don't have a chance. other than that people are good.

 

[apumic]

Well, considering the fact that there are still many applicants who will eventually be accepted to their first school (from now until... July?) I'd say it's too early to speculate.

 

[Maxwell7301]

It wouldn't surprise me at all if this is the hardest year ever for applicants.

I had a very tough time with this cycle, finally getting in after waiting on a waitlist for many months.

Just take a look at the Not Accepted Yet (NAY) thread. There are a bunch of great applicants in there without acceptances, some sitting on 5-6 waitlists.

 

[deleted357625]

It wouldn't surprise me at all if this is the hardest year ever for applicants.

I had a very tough time with this cycle, finally getting in after waiting on a waitlist for many months.

Just take a look at the Not Accepted Yet (NAY) thread. There are a bunch of great applicants in there without acceptances, some sitting on 5-6 waitlists.[URL="http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?t=801748&page=2"]
[/URL]

when did they apply tho thats the thing

 

[Obliquity]

Over the next 3-5 years (including this fall), 15 new medical schools will be opening... expanding the number of seats from ~18,500 to over 20,000 when the new schools are up to their "full" classes (the first few years will see smaller class sizes). This is a ~10% increase in the number of seats over the next 10 years!

Food for thought...

http://www.lcme.org/newschoolprocess.htm

 

[Geneticist]

Over the next 3-5 years (including this fall), 15 new medical schools will be opening... expanding the number of seats from ~18,500 to over 20,000 when the new schools are up to their "full" classes (the first few years will see smaller class sizes). This is a ~10% increase in the number of seats over the next 10 years!

Food for thought...

http://www.lcme.org/newschoolprocess.htm

I counted 7. The others at the bottom have already opened, some a couple of years ago. But that's good news!

 

[aSagacious]

Haha really...you dare me? What would you possibly do?

I was planning on mean mugging you... works on everyone who disagrees with me on the internet.

 

[wanderer]

Oh it's this type of discussion again. 🙄

Let's wait for some facts before making such bold claims.

 

[surferdud]

I counted 7. The others at the bottom have already opened, some a couple of years ago. But that's good news!

new schools are great, but something to consider if whether the number of residency spots are increasing at a similar rate. With a greater number of US med students + foriegn/international med student applications rising to residency, it would suck for residencies to become difficult to attain at all. Add to that the debt med students will already be sitting on post-school...some more food for thought!

 

[MacVA]

You could have applied to Medical school in the 1970's where less than 10% of people got in... Things can always be worse...

I think in the next couple of years, with declining reimbursement and new medical schools, the percentage should creep up to 55%.

 

[rhesuspieces]

I think I'll choose to believe this one, if only because it works to inflate my already massive ego after being accepted 😛. 2015ers are awesome.

That's the beauty of this statistic. People who got in see the 33% and are all like "daaaaa-yum, I must be hot stuff if I got into med school with these odds!" and people who didn't get in see the 33% and feel better about themselves because look at how many people didn't get in either!

 

[MCAT guy]

That's the beauty of this statistic. People who got in see the 33% and are all like "daaaaa-yum, I must be hot stuff if I got into med school with these odds!" and people who didn't get in see the 33% and feel better about themselves because look at how many people didn't get in either!

And then there is the group I fall into, who doesn't care either way!🙂

 

[obscurehero]

Wow '86 v. '96. Big difference.

65% acceptance vs. 32% acceptance. Ouch.

What happened in the mid-90's with applications to medical school?

 

[Isoprop]

Wow '86 v. '96. Big difference.

65% acceptance vs. 32% acceptance. Ouch.

What happened in the mid-90's with applications to medical school?

MCAT is offerred a crapload of times now.
The application is electronic now.
Today, there's more college educated people who can't find satifactory jobs without getting a graduate level degree.

 

[aSagacious]

MCAT is offerred a crapload of times now.
The application is electronic now.
Today, there's more college educated people who can't find satifactory jobs without getting a graduate level degree.

...There are a plethora of medical dramas on tv enticing adolescents to pursue med school