In reality, however, the numbers show that wage inflation is literally the least of the problems when it comes to university cost inflation. Check out this excellent report, for instance, entitled Trends in College Spending, 1999-2009″. The first thing to note is on page 26: spending on faculty compensation is never more than 40% of total spending, and has remained steady or decreased slightly over time. Then have a look at the numbers.
Overall, if we exclude for-profit schools, which were a tiny part of the landscape in 1999, we have seen tuition fees rise by 32% between 1999 and 2009. Over the same period, instruction costs rose just 5.6% the lowest rate of inflation of any of the components of education services. (Student services costs and operations and maintenance costs saw the greatest inflation, at 15.2% and 18.1% respectively, but even that is only half the rate that tuition increased.)
The real reason why tuition has been rising so much has nothing to do with Baumol, and everything to do with the government. Page 31 of the report is quite clear: except for private research institutions, it says, tuitions were increasing almost exclusively to replace losses from state revenues or other private revenue sources.
In other words, tuition costs are going up just because state subsidies are going down. Every time theres a state fiscal crisis, subsidies get cut; once cut, they never get reinstated. And so the proportion of the cost of college which is borne by the student has been rising steadily for decades.