Postpone applying due to potential large amount of applicants next cycle?

[deleted889094]

With large amounts of debt and people scrambling for money. I cant see students wanting a med career unless they are truly passionate. It takes people 10-15 years just to become a Dr. That’s not something a whole lot more people are excited about.

People always talk about how long it takes, but really it's just 2 years of classroom before you get to start doing cool stuff. If you're interested in the actual work of medicine, that's pretty great. But outsiders seem to only recognize the status of doctors, so to them it's 7+ years before the "payoff"

I'm still in classroom and I love it, so the amount of time before the "end" doesn't really matter to me.

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[TragicalDrFaust]

Then why would one even bother to apply if they are not competitive enough. It is advised all the time put your best foot forward for MCAT as well as applying, so to suggest 18% apply without competitive enough is unfair. In fact they will be more competitive in coming years as they have leisure of gap years to boost profile vs someone who is still Freshman/Sophomore/Junior.

Some pre med students truly don’t know what makes their application competitive. I know someone who applied with a 6th percentile MCAT score and someone who only applied to Johns Hopkins and didn’t do dedicated study for the MCAT. I tried to get a pre med MCAT study group together with some of the students in my undergrad bio classes. Most people (this was at state university) didn’t think they needed to study for the MCAT outside of classes. At my first undergrad school, small liberal arts college, something like 60% of the class were bio majors and interested in medicine. But nobody did research or volunteering because it was a rural liberal arts school. The class was about 500 students, 300 pre meds. It was a good year if a single person made it into medical school. So I’ve just found you 299+ people per year who really had no chance but applied anyway. I really have no guess about the numbers at the state university but I would be willing to bet that 75% of my peers there who applied to medical school had no idea and no chance.

To give you a sense of the demographic situation, I’m the only person I know from high school or college who got into med school and I grew up in a fairly well off suburb and went to two decent state undergrad schools. About a third of my friends wanted to be doctors. No one really had any excuse for not knowing how to put together a reasonable application. And yet here we are. How did you learn about all of the unwritten requirements for medical school?

 

[HopeP]

Some pre med students truly don’t know what makes their application competitive

Agree on that, but don't think that 'some' is jacked up by 18% because they had covid kool-aid.

I know someone who applied with a 6th percentile MCAT score and someone who only applied to Johns Hopkins and didn’t do dedicated study for the MCAT

Outliers are not norms. 18% increase is just can't be representing outliers.

So I’ve just found you 299+ people per year who really had no chance but applied anyway

It is a phenomenon every year. To suggest that 299+ is increased by 18% this year seems illogical as class sizes hasn't increased disproportionately last year.

How did you learn about all of the unwritten requirements for medical school?

Please elaborate.

 

[deleted889094]

Agree on that, but don't think that 'some' is jacked up by 18% because they had covid kool-aid.

Outliers are not norms. 18% increase is just can't be representing outliers.

It is a phenomenon every year. To suggest that 299+ is increased by 18% this year seems illogical as class sizes hasn't increased disproportionately last year.

Please elaborate.

To be fair, you've had several people give their experiences or expertise and you've simply responded saying it doesn't make sense to you without providing evidences counterargument

 

[HopeP]

To be fair, you've had several people give their experiences or expertise and you've simply responded saying it doesn't make sense to you without providing evidences counterargument

Fair criticism, we all agreed that 18% increase is unprecedented and none of us have experienced that in our lifetime. We are all driving based on historical data and more or less life lessons we have, ofc adcoms have insights on that too. How one can simply accept anecdotal cases as a norm?
I won't paint brush the characterization, as I have agreed to several views on this phenomenon, most appealing is LizzyM's Peace Corps theory.
Is it wrong to ask something if i don't understand or doesn't make sense to me?

 

[deleted889094]

Fair criticism, we all agreed that 18% increase is unprecedented and none of us have experienced that in our lifetime. We are all driving based on historical data and more or less life lessons we have, ofc adcoms have insights on that too. How one can simply accept anecdotal cases as a norm?
I won't paint brush the characterization, as I have agreed to several views on this pheromone, most appealing is LizzyM's Peace Corps theory.
Is it wrong to ask something if i don't understand or doesn't make sense to me?

I'm assuming you meant phenomenon lol

It's not wrong, but if you fail to reason out a counterpoint when you continuously deny people's arguments, you run the risk of appearing obstinate and losing any influence in the discussion.

I only chimed in to prevent that happening because you're beginning to come across that way to me.

 

[HopeP]

I'm assuming you meant phenomenon lol

It's not wrong, but if you fail to reason out a counterpoint when you continuously deny people's arguments, you run the risk of appearing obstinate and losing any influence in the discussion.

I only chimed in to prevent that happening because you're beginning to come across that way to me.

what was that indeed a major typo and corrected myself.

Thanks for pointing out 2nd half and believe age is not a factor to learn from others.

 

[DNAJB6]

6) This cycle, at my DO school, the applicants are indeed stronger. I have yet to see someone with an MCAT score <510, and I'd estimate that ~20% of the applicants have Stanford/Harvard stats. And for the first time ever, I'm seeing applicants from the Ivies.

Now I really am scared. If you don't mind me asking, would your DO school be in the top 5 or 10 of DO schools?

 

[DNAJB6]

I'll also say this. For all of those fretting, what do your clinical hours look like? There has been a shortage of shadowing and other clinical opportunities secondary to the pandemic. For those who have been waiting to apply for a while, having a larger number of clinical hours can help set you apart from many that are applying with far fewer than would be customary pre-Covid.

 

[HopeP]

I'll also say this. For all of those fretting, what do your clinical hours look like? There has been a shortage of shadowing and other clinical opportunities secondary to the pandemic. For those who have been waiting to apply for a while, having a larger number of clinical hours can help set you apart from many that are applying with far fewer than would be customary pre-Covid.

Those ECs are certainly pain points for my S. Hoping coming fall he can splash into it. But opportunities will be crowded, same number of opportunities but more crowded with demand, preferences are given to them who are closer to apply to med school. It is certainly feels hurt as how one can overcome a 1+ year missed ECs in another year time span. Time is not with them. Can see few solutions, expansion of ECs offering and/or increase capacity in those ECs to accommodate more who have missed due to Covid.

 

[DNAJB6]

Those ECs are certainly pain points for my S. Hoping coming fall he can splash into it. But opportunities will be crowded, same number of opportunities but more crowded with demand, preferences are given to them who are closer to apply to med school. It is certainly feels hurt as how one can overcome a 1+ year missed ECs in another year time span. Time is not with them. Can see few solutions, expansion of ECs offering and/or increase capacity in those ECs to accommodate more who have missed due to Covid.

I wouldn't be too optimistic about things opening up in the fall. There are vaccine supply issues and early surveys of public opinion show that approximately 60% of people do not want the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Among my fellow health care workers, 50% of them didn't want it either. I work for a major health system in one of the states that is doing better Covid wise. The hospital had eased all Covid restrictions in June. I just received an email yesterday that the entire institute is mandating that all ambulatory clinics are to slash in office visits by 50% immediately with a goal of 75% virtual encounters by January 1. The other major health system in my state has stopped all surgeries that require inpatient admission (save for those needed immediately to save life or limb). Covid is going to get worse not better. We are seeing the Thanksgiving spike now. There will be a Christmas spike. Then in March the Spring Break spike. Ditto for summer vacation time. Each spike grows exponentially and builds on the previous one.

Unless public attitude about the vaccine changes and there is enough supply, I could see this going into Q1 of 2022. It will probably taper at that point as we develop herd immunity. At that point, clinical positions will be very tough as there are many more students competing for them. To all the pre-meds out there, start looking for a clinical job now if you can get one or try to get on waiting lists (e.g. for scribe positions) now.

 

[HopeP]

Among my fellow health care workers, 50% of them didn't want it either.

That caught my eye, what is their rational not to get one?

Rest of impact you described is possible. It is also possible that from spring time start seeing effects of vaccination, which changes people view in more favor to take vaccine compound with new govt approach. Overall I feel more confident than lets say 6 months back in getting back to normal.

 

[Goro]

Now I really am scared. If you don't mind me asking, would your DO school be in the top 5 or 10 of DO schools?

We like to think so.

 

[Goro]

. Overall I feel more confident than lets say 6 months back in getting back to normal.

Agree 100%

 

[DNAJB6]

That caught my eye, what is their rational not to get one?

The survey didn't ask the reason. Among my colleagues I've talked with most consider it experimental and want more clinical data before taking it. It's also worth noting that the survey was institution wide and included outpatient clinics in fields that aren't particularly high risk (e.g. ortho, PM&R, radiology, etc.). I haven't seen specific data limited to the hospitalists and EM providers yet.

Rest of impact you described is possible. It is also possible that from spring time start seeing effects of vaccination, which changes people view in more favor to take vaccine compound with new govt approach. Overall I feel more confident than lets say 6 months back in getting back to normal.

I hope you're right.

 

[HopeP]

Among my colleagues I've talked with most consider it experimental and want more clinical data before taking it.

50% number among health care workers is alarming. What make them to think 2 vaccines FDA approved for EUA have insufficient clinical data? So far what I had heard from Dr Fauci, it causes issues for severe allergic people and data is not sufficient for pregnant women or planning to be. Is that what your colleagues are concerned about?or there is something else they cite.

 

[EdgeTrimmer]

Interesting, I also read (and heard from my physician friends) that some physicians are jockeying for getting vaccine ahead of others even though they are in low risk specialties!

 

[LaughingGas10]

Interesting, I also read (and heard from my physician friends) that some physicians are jockeying for getting vaccine ahead of others even though they are in low risk specialties!

With the approval of the moderna vaccine, this controversy should end soon. There will be enough to cover all healthcare workers and Nursing home elderly residents by January 15. See the excellent article below.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/12/what-we-know-about-u-s-covid-19-vaccine-distribution-plan.html

 

[deleted889094]

50% number among health care workers is alarming. What make them to think 2 vaccines FDA approved for EUA have insufficient clinical data? So far what I had heard from Dr Fauci, it causes issues for severe allergic people and data is not sufficient for pregnant women or planning to be. Is that what your colleagues are concerned about?or there is something else they cite.

There have been many FDA approved medications that had to be later taken off market for long-term damages. Long-term consequences can not get be evaluated, so I get the sentiment. Personally, I wouldn't want to take any medication that hasn't been around for 5-10 years - although I'll probably still get the vaccine since I would want to for protecting patients.

 

[HopeP]

although I'll probably still get the vaccine since I would want to for protecting patients.

How so? To my knowledge they don't know yet getting vaccine prevents spread or not. Vaccine would only help health care worker from getting sick so that they can take care of patients, hopefully without PPE and all other gears.

 

[deleted889094]

How so? To my knowledge they don't know yet getting vaccine prevents spread or not. Vaccine would only help health care worker from getting sick so that they can take care of patients, hopefully without PPE and all other gears.

Generally vaccines do, but even without knowing if this one does yet, it certainly won't hurt patients I see.

 

[Moko]

50% number among health care workers is alarming. What make them to think 2 vaccines FDA approved for EUA have insufficient clinical data?

Some concerns that I've heard about the vaccine:
1) The first Pfizer mRNA vaccine was not unanimously approved by the committee (17 in favor, 4 not in favor). Why did 4 people vote 'no'? Were there safety concerns that we needed to be aware of? As it turns out, those who voted 'no' did so primarily because the indication included 16 and 17 year olds, rather than just those 18 and older. Many people just read the headline, and did not dig that deeply.
2) Were the mRNA vaccines EUA approval based purely on science? In perhaps another example of the current administration sabotaging their own management of the COVID pandemic, it was widely reported that the White House had pressured the FDA chief to approve the vaccine by the end of the day or to resign. I suspect the vaccine would have been approved expeditiously either way, but such reports certainly did little to assuage concerns about political expediency in this process. Of course, this comes after the FDA's questionable approval of hydroxychloroquine for COVID use in the spring after our dear commander baselessly touted its efficacy (the EUA approval for hydroxychloroquine was later revoked), or how other COVID therapies such as remdesivir, convalescent plasma, and antibody therapies (bamlanivimab, casirivimab/imdevimab, among others) were similarly approved for EUA with really scant (and in some cases, laughable) clinical data, with still much debate about their efficacy amongst our ID specialists and intensivists. Recall that the WHO recently came out against use of remdesivir. As @athorcommens pointed out, the FDA's track record is far from flawless.
3) What are the long-term benefits and risks of a mRNA-based vaccine? Unfortunately, this remains a big question mark in my mind as the original vaccine trials (through no fault of their own) only give us a few precious months of data. There remains many questions about the durability of its protection and theoretical risks from mRNA therapies that will need to be answered over the coming months and years.

Despite having some concerns myself, I opted to get the COVID-19 vaccine earlier this week. Yes, there are largely isolated reports of adverse reactions to the vaccine: some in Alaska had serious side effects, someone in Tennessee fainted on camera, etc., and yes, the long-term effects remain unknown as mentioned above. However, the choice was simple when weighing this against the high prevalence of COVID-19 in my community, the 18,000+(including some young healthy people) who have died in the same time period alone (1 week), not to mention the countless more who have lost productivity due to hospitalization and/or quarantine, AND the unknown long-term complications of COVID-19 (I'm particularly worried about its long-term vasculopathic effects). The calculus is far in favor of receiving the vaccine, and I strongly suspect that most people will come around as the short- and medium-term safety and efficacy of the vaccine are demonstrated.

 

[HopeP]

those who voted 'no' did so primarily because the indication included 16 and 17 year olds, rather than just those 18 and older. Many people just read the headline, and did not dig that deeply.

I heard that too and explanation wasn't logical. There are hardly any health care workers of age 16-18, so technically this should be N/A to them.

FDA's track record is far from flawless.

Can't disagree with the random actions being taken during course of summer. Their credibility tainted by an incompetent administration. At the same time, 2 vaccines are touted for their clinical data for Covid-19 and lots of reputable Drs, including Dr Fauci has confirmed its validity. Dr Fauci was the only silver line during entire summer debacle. In my view even Dr. Birx lost credibility after a while for her attempts to remain neutral to avoid boss tweet. Tbh, as a parent. when I see that kind of behavior, people like Dr. Atlas, it makes me wonder how can it be possible for such a noble profession.

Unfortunately, this remains a big question mark..

Agree that unknown part is always creates suspicion. I happen to watch 1918 Influenza pandemic documentary and remarkably the same arguments are being made even after 100 years for covid, even though medicine has advanced so much in last 100 years.

The calculus is far in favor of receiving the vaccine, and I strongly suspect that most people will come around as the short- and medium-term safety and efficacy of the vaccine are demonstrated.

Yes, benefits certainly outweigh the risks. I can't wait for my ~268M number..

 

[proudofmykids]

There have been many FDA approved medications that had to be later taken off market for long-term damages. Long-term consequences can not get be evaluated, so I get the sentiment. Personally, I wouldn't want to take any medication that hasn't been around for 5-10 years - although I'll probably still get the vaccine since I would want to for protecting patients.

People need to realize that Not Taking the Vaccine near term, does not make it zero risk as you still endure the local likelihood of contracting COVID. Average prevalence in the US is 72/100k with a high of 128.. This must be factored into the risk of not taking the vaccine.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

 

[deleted889094]

People need to realize that Not Taking the Vaccine near term, does not make it zero risk as you still endure the local likelihood of contracting COVID. Average prevalence in the US is 72/100k with a high of 128.. This must be factored into the risk of not taking the vaccine.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

I mean, yeah, I think that's kind of self-evident.

 

[DNAJB6]

50% number among health care workers is alarming. What make them to think 2 vaccines FDA approved for EUA have insufficient clinical data? So far what I had heard from Dr Fauci, it causes issues for severe allergic people and data is not sufficient for pregnant women or planning to be. Is that what your colleagues are concerned about?or there is something else they cite.

I can't speak for everyone, but the perception among many is that the vaccine was rushed along and not as well vetted as other vaccines in order to exact a political win. Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but this is the first mRNA based vaccine. Not only is the vaccine itself new, but the entire technology used to create it is also new as applied to this context. Many want to see a large sample size over time before taking the vaccine. This isn't your average flu shot or MMRV.

I hope to be vaccinated eventually. With that said, I will not blindly trust anything that Fauci says. That's based on ever changing guidelines that are based on expediency and not necessarily data and clinical outcomes. For example:

1. We were told in March that a certain set of PPE was inadequate and could open us up to infection on Tuesday, but by that Friday, it was considered the new norm and compliant with a new CDC guideline. It was all "fine" they assured us. There was no new study or data in the intervening point. At one point my institute was updating PPE guidelines daily. It all came to down to expediency and not our best interests.

2. You remember the whole spiel that as long as you were 6 feet away, you were fine and that Covid couldn't be transmitted from afar? Well it turns out this was wrong too. The virus can aerosolize and spread much farther.

3. You remember the study showing that masks can reduce transmission 50+%? What ever happened to masks won't provide any benefits and could even increase your risk of infection secondary to incorrect usage?

4. Even the symptom list has changed drastically.

Fauci and the CDC have repeatedly wavered on everything. I'll give them credit that this is a novel virus and that they are doing everything they can. The government was dealt a very bad hand. Notwithstanding the challenges of a pandemic involving a novel virus, clinical guidelines and treatments should be based on science and clinical data. Good science takes time. Anyone telling you that scientists have figured this virus out, even as it has repeatedly mutated into new strains, is not being honest with you.

Anyway, tldr;

 

[JoyFairy]

wow. That tells the story of 18% rise.

Yeah, I've heard that the increase is really the result of life science majors/"on the fence premeds" not being able to find jobs. They've usually got most, if not all of the academic prereqs, so they can cobble together an application.

But @Goro is right. Grad/professional school applications increase across the board when the economy tanks.

 

[DNAJB6]

Yeah, I've heard that the increase is really the result of life science majors/"on the fence premeds" not being able to find jobs. They've usually got most, if not all of the academic prereqs, so they can cobble together an application.

But @Goro is right. Grad/professional school applications increase across the board when the economy tanks.

So in other words most are likely cookie cutter applicants with half way thrown together applications? That's my sincere hope.

 

[JoyFairy]

So in other words most are likely cookie cutter applicants with half way thrown together applications? That's my sincere hope.

Haha, we can only hope!

But honestly, I'm not sure about the strength of their apps. Just based off of the friends I know who've decided to apply, I can imagine they might be high stats/heavy research with some non-clinical volunteering, but clinical hours.

Can't discount the possibility of applicants with some cool class projects or experience though!

 

[DNAJB6]

I wouldn't be too optimistic about things opening up in the fall. There are vaccine supply issues and early surveys of public opinion show that approximately 60% of people do not want the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Among my fellow health care workers, 50% of them didn't want it either. ...

Update: ~70% of the institution has taken at least dose 1 of the vaccine so far including clerical staff. People are warming to it.

 

[LindaAccepted]

Hello! Now, I am not going to hold off on applying because of this but I just wanted to see opinions on how you think this will effect my chances as an applicant. They are saying there could be a record number of applicants for the 2021-22 cycle (Fauci effect and all that). I have been preparing an application for 4 years now and believe I am a strong applicant, but can't help but be scared at this news. I guess part of my question is where will all those extra applications be coming from, and are those applicants stronger than average or weaker? Would love to hear thoughts!

If you are ready to apply after preparing for 4 years, apply. You cannot control your competition. Make sure you qualifications, schools choice, and presentation of your qualifications are as good as you can make them.

I would make a few modifications in anticipation of increased app volume:

1. Be very realistic in your school choices. Fewer stretches and more safeties.
2. Apply to a few more programs than you originally planed to apply.
3. Optimize your applications
4. Participate in online events at the schools you are interested in both to know more about them and to demonstrate interest in them.
5. Know why you want to attend the schools you are applying to and convey those reasons persuasively in your secondaries/interviews.
6. Without compromising quality, apply early and respond to secondaries promptly .

Best,
Linda

 

[KnightDoc]

If you are ready to apply after preparing for 4 years, apply. You cannot control your competition. Make sure you qualifications, schools choice, and presentation of your qualifications are as good as you can make them.

I would make a few modifications in anticipation of increased app volume:

1. Be very realistic in your school choices. Fewer stretches and more safeties.
2. Apply to a few more programs than you originally planed to apply.
3. Optimize your applications
4. Participate in online events at the schools you are interested in both to know more about them and to demonstrate interest in them.
5. Know why you want to attend the schools you are applying to and convey those reasons persuasively in your secondaries/interviews.
6. Without compromising quality, apply early and respond to secondaries promptly .

Best,
Linda

Can you PLEEEZE provide one example of a safety??? I have been searching for nearly two years and haven't found a single one yet, for anyone, no matter what their app looks like (other than, MAYBE a high stat URM with reasonable ECs)!!!

 

[deleted889094]

Can you PLEEEZE provide one example of a safety??? I have been searching for nearly two years and haven't found a single one yet, for anyone, no matter what their app looks like (other than, MAYBE a high stat URM with reasonable ECs)!!!

It's a thing. Dependent on the app. I get your point though.

 

[LindaAccepted]

Can you PLEEEZE provide one example of a safety??? I have been searching for nearly two years and haven't found a single one yet, for anyone, no matter what their app looks like (other than, MAYBE a high stat URM with reasonable ECs)!!!

Reponse well taken.

A safety in my mind is a program where based on your qualifications, you are above average AND that you would be happy to attend. So for example, if you

• have a 509 MCAT and a 3.5 GPA and BCPM.
• Good clinical exposure and community service.
• Minimal research
• You even shadowed a DO for a couple of weeks to have that experience
• Interested in primary care,

BUT, you prefer MD programs. DO programs could be safeties. (My example is entirely made up.)

Best,
Linda

 

[KnightDoc]

Reponse well taken.

A safety in my mind is a program where based on your qualifications, you are above average AND that you would be happy to attend. So for example, if you

• have a 509 MCAT and a 3.5 GPA and BCPM.
• Good clinical exposure and community service.
• Minimal research
• You even shadowed a DO for a couple of weeks to have that experience
• Interested in primary care,

BUT, you prefer MD programs. DO programs could be safeties. (My example is entirely made up.)

Best,
Linda

Then, I guess it's just semantics!! What you refer to a "safety" I refer to as "target"!