Predicting your Step 1 Score

[UTMB2014]

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Hi Everyone,
I was wondering how predictive are NBMEs/ UW at predicting your actual score.
My scores are as follows:
NBME 7(8 weeks before): 252
NBME 6 (4 weeks before): 247
NBME 11 (2 weeks before): 242
NBME 13 (1 week before): 252
NBME 12 (1 week before): 250

UWSA (2 weeks before): 250
UW Percentage: 74%

 

[thinkenergy]

NBMEs are more predictive. On the other hand, USWA, esp. form 2 tends to over-predict by a few points, their curve is very generous. From your scores, I'd say your actual score will be in the range of 250 +/- 5 points.

 

[UTMB2014]

Thanks for that. I was wondering what other people thought. How did your nbme scores compare to your final step 1 score? What about the uwsa?

 

[Subaru]

Hot damn those are some good scores far out from your test date. You look like a solid 250/260 imo. I was scoring only in the 230s with one 240 (#13) a week out with the same Uworld average as you. You should feel solidly 😎 with those, very consistent.

Sean Paschall, a UTMBer of 2013 has always advocated the rule of averaging your last 3 and adding or subtracting 10 as a nice confidence interval (of unknown stds of course )

By the way, just took the exam today (I am in your class), when you taking yours?

 

[UTMB2014]

Good to see another fellow UTMBer in here and I hope your prediction is accurate for me. I take it a week from now. Im super nervous to be honest with you and I hope my nbme scores transfer to the actual exam. It's unfortunate I didn't improve that much during my study time.

 

[FSAP]

This is weird but I got the exact same UWorld percentage and the same 11 and 13 nbme scores (only ones I took). I think we are in good shape to at least cross the 240.

 

[shadowfox87]

I haven't taken any NBMEs yet, but my UW is 76%. From the looks of this thread, the UW % and the 3 digit scores vary. Did anybody make a table or some correlation formula?

 

[UTMB2014]

Yes that's what I'm thinking, unless we both just get a really bad test

 

[MrBeauregard]

I think you're on the path to a 250+. My UWorld average is 80% with 19% of the bank left to complete. I scored a 252 on NBME 11 with 5 weeks to go and a 256 on UWSA 1 with 2.5 weeks go to. I still have to take UWSA 2 and another NBME (I'm exactly 1 week out) but I just don't know which form to take (11 or 12). Anybody have any advice? It probably doesn't matter either way, but I'm just torn for some reason.

 

[thinkenergy]

UTMB2014, did you use DIT during your 8-week study?

 

[UTMB2014]

I didn't actually. I know a lot of people in my class that did. I have heard mixed reviews to be honest with you.

 

[docnotsopc]

UTMB2014, did you use DIT during your 8-week study?

8 week study?? You guys had 8 weeks out from last day of classes?

 

[UTMB2014]

Nah, I only had 3-4 weeks after my last day of classes.

 

[rocdoc38]

Hey guys I'm averaging 80% overall on uworld and will finish it up in the next day or two. My last 15+ blocks I'm averaging in the 83-85% range. Took NBME 13 about 5 days ago and scored 254. My test is exactly 1 week from today, am I in good shape to break the 250 mark, or at very least 240? Thanks.

 

[UTMB2014]

I think your scores are very impressive and you should hit the 250 mark at the rate you are going

 

[newdoc2013]

I haven't taken any NBMEs yet, but my UW is 76%. From the looks of this thread, the UW % and the 3 digit scores vary. Did anybody make a table or some correlation formula?

Roughly: 2.3*uworld%+84... Must be done in random timed mode...
Some have said: 2.4*uworld%+84


I think it's ballpark correct.

 

[newdoc2013]

Hey guys I'm averaging 80% overall on uworld and will finish it up in the next day or two. My last 15+ blocks I'm averaging in the 83-85% range. Took NBME 13 about 5 days ago and scored 254. My test is exactly 1 week from today, am I in good shape to break the 250 mark, or at very least 240? Thanks.

If ur doing it in random timed mode (and always have been) you should slay it. Good luck!

 

[rocdoc38]

Thanks for the feedback! Yea, I've only done random, timed, unused blocks. Finishing up with it tonight around 82%. I've seen those formulas around as well, I just wonder how over inflated they might be. In any event I don't really care if I break 260, I'd be pretty content with anything over 240. Now its time to cram all the little bits of knowledge that have been hemorrhaging in the last few days leading up to the test!

 

[UTMB2014]

Yeah I am hoping to atleast get 240. I am just nervous because I wasn't sure how predictive the NBMEs are...

 

[shadowfox87]

Roughly: 2.3*uworld%+84... Must be done in random timed mode...
Some have said: 2.4*uworld%+84


I think it's ballpark correct.

Hmm seems a little high to me. I took an NBME and got only 200 before I did UW. I am doing UW random timed, almost done with the whole thing and I never touched tutor. I am averaging 76%. I hope I can break 230 if I am lucky. A 76% on NBME is barely 220. Also, the UWSA score should be definitely at least 20 points higher than your NBME score. Though the first poster has pretty much no difference between NBME and UWSA.

 

[UTMB2014]

Keep in mind that NBME and UWorld are different in terms of difficulty. Take another nbme to see where you are at.

I took UWSA and NBME 11 during the same week. Must have been off that week or something. Could explain why my UWSA is lower than expected