Predictions on the competition level of applicants in 2 Years?

[fullefect1]

Ever year the process of being accepted seems to get more difficult. Does anyone have any good predictions on the level of competition for the application cycle two years from now? Do you think there will be much of a difference?

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[linus]

there shouldn't be much of a difference in 2 years.

talking to some of my PIs, they've all commented on how much easier it used to be to get into top med schools. but this was over 10-15 years ago.

 

[XCanadianRagwee]

you will need a 4.0 and a 43-45 on the MCATS to have a chance at the top tier schools at even lowly universities such as Podunk U.

 

[SoulRFlare]

I think the record was in 1996, when there were 44,000 applicants!!

 

[crazy250]

I don't think there will be a huge difference because the economy is slowly getting better and medicine isn't what it used to be. You really have to enjoy it to do it.

 

[CalBeE]

Originally posted by crazy250
I don't think there will be a huge difference because the economy is slowly getting better and medicine isn't what it used to be. You really have to enjoy it to do it.

Agree

However, competition among the applicants will still be high.

 

[docmemi]

i think its always been hard. and maybe in the past even harder since we have a lot more resources and opportunities today.

...something to think about.

 

[Bones2008]

Originally posted by BioChemDork
I think it'll get up to the high 30k's (39,000 or so). You can thank Bush for ruining the economy and sending all the potential biz-econ people our way...

The number of medical school applicants, like the economy, moves in cycles (this is a not a coincidence). They both always have, and they both always will. If you're gonna blame Bush, blame the fourty presidents before him while you're at it and every person in America, as well. Cycles happen. Nobody's fault. Why not think about it the other way around? Med school applicants actually increased this year for the first time in almost a decade. How about the hardcore "biz-econ" people over the last eight years? They've been thinking "F@cking economy. It's too good right now, and all the potential pre-meds are taking the jobs that I want." Don't b!tch; it works both ways.

 

[Mr Reddly]

If the # of apps stays where it is now (or lessens), I believe it will go down. I say this because after plotting the change in app# over time -vs- the mcat/gpa scores over time, you see that the mcat/gpa numbers rose as the app# rose starting back in 1993ish. However, as the app# dropped, the gpa/mcat continued to rise.

My belief is that there is a lag between these two indicators due to the fact that applicants applying now started worrying about med school 3-4 years ago when it was more difficult to get in (#s wise was 1/3). If it stays 1/2 get in, then the gpa/mcat will drop back to where it should be based on the 1/2 accept rate.
... but then again, like I know anything.

 

[LoneCoyote]

The number of applicants should increase according to the demographics since the beginning of the Baby Boomlet has already reached college. So I would assume that will make it more competitive just out of sheer numbers even if many people who might have applied to med school in the past will not now because they think the field has changed for the worse.

 

[Rose122]

If you really want me to wager a wild guess I would say that stiffer immigration laws may disrupt the import of foreign physicians so doctors pay will rise and med school applicants should follow. In two years it should slightly more difficult because the aging baby boomers that will require more healthcare and there has been a projected shortage of physicians.

 

[avicoo]

Originally posted by BioChemDork
I think it'll get up to the high 30k's (39,000 or so). You can thank Bush for ruining the economy and sending all the potential biz-econ people our way...

Actually while applications to most graduate programs increase as the economy declines, applications to medical schools are not generally effected. Theoretically due to the large amount of preparation (and the associated cost) necessary to apply in comparison with other programs.

 

[Kalel]

Why do you guys think that competetion is getting steeper? It's actually getting much easier according to statistics. These days, ~50% of applicants are being accepted. I think that competition was actually steepest in the 80's and early 90's. There were a ton of applicants back then, and they didn't rely as heavily on soft criteria such as extracurriculars and humanistic qualities to judge applicants; you either had the numbers, or you didn't. If you take into account the grade inflation that has been happening at most undergrad institutions, I think that you will see that they were a much more competetive crowd back then.

 

[Mr Reddly]

Yes, the number of people applying has gone way down. However, grade inflation was happening back then too. Now, if you can say the MCAT is getting easier, then OK, I would buy it. The ave MCAT for accepties has continued to rise year after year since 93. Only in the last year or two does it seem to have leveled off. I say this based on the AAMC data at their web site.

 

[exmike]

Originally posted by Mr Reddly
Yes, the number of people applying has gone way down. However, grade inflation was happening back then too. Now, if you can say the MCAT is getting easier, then OK, I would buy it. The ave MCAT for accepties has continued to rise year after year since 93. Only in the last year or two does it seem to have leveled off. I say this based on the AAMC data at their web site.

Agreed. The applicant pool is not any weaker now than it was in '96 when the # of applicants was the highest. I think back then more unqualified people applied b/c medicine seemed like a good way to make big bucks. The continually rising MCAT scores suggests that applicants continue to get stronger year after year. I think it has to do with students deciding earlier and thus preparing early to matriculate into medical school.

 

[Gleevec]

Originally posted by Mr Reddly
Yes, the number of people applying has gone way down. However, grade inflation was happening back then too. Now, if you can say the MCAT is getting easier, then OK, I would buy it. The ave MCAT for accepties has continued to rise year after year since 93. Only in the last year or two does it seem to have leveled off. I say this based on the AAMC data at their web site.

The MCAT is definitely not getting easier. Have any of you taken AAMC 1, 2, or even 3? For those tests its more a question of "did you get a 40 or a 45? did you only finish half the test, wow and you still got a 35?".

The MCAT has definitely gotten much harder, if you dont believe me, take AAMC 1, and then take AAMC 5 or 6.

 

[exmike]

The mcat now is much more comprehensive too. Back in AAMC 1 there was very little genetics (if any?). The breadth of knowledge required for the MCAT is broader now as well.

 

[Mr Reddly]

Originally posted by exmike
Agreed. The applicant pool is not any weaker now than it was in '96 when the # of applicants was the highest. I think back then more unqualified people applied b/c medicine seemed like a good way to make big bucks.

Also, they wanted to be Dr. Green from ER.
Second, in the late 80's, the accept ratio was somewhere in the order or 2/3. I think this caused laziness. You didn't need a killer GPA/MCAT score, so you didn't worry. You scored what you needed.

The continually rising MCAT scores suggests that applicants continue to get stronger year after year. I think it has to do with students deciding earlier and thus preparing early to matriculate into medical school.

Also, the MCAT scores have not actually gone up. It's the scores of the applicants that have gone up. Thus, people with low scores, are more likely to retake the test or give up. In the past (80's), a low score was OK. You didn't retake the test, and you stayed in the process. A coworker (and a fellow ex AMR resident go adams!) of mine took the MCAT, did poorly on the verbal and decided to give up. This causes a shift in that people with low MCAT scores don't even apply.

 

[lukeday99]

I actually think that pre-meds are gaining more grey matter yearly, and their need to get in is growing proportionally. Pretty soon, you won't even get a secondary without advanced research in both molecular physics and quantum biological mechanics. Only people who play an instrument at a symphony level will be given serious consideration. And it's going to take both work with a Nobel Laureate, and a family legacy unto about six or seven generations, to get an interview. Beyond that, most people will get rejected anyway.

Get real, people. Pre-meds have allways been smart. They will continue to be smart. If you eat yourself up second guessing your chances, this is not the profession for you.

Because getting in is, I think, the easy part.

 

[Mr Reddly]

If that's the case, then I'm screwed.