Protons are blowing Rad Onc's boat out the CMS water

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Well, the problem is when the rug gets pulled out on protons by CMS (and it will) the bankruptcy attorneys will make a fortune. Just think to when CMS did the same for electronic brachytherapy a few years ago. Personally, I would rather have a Xoft unit gathering cobwebs than a multi-vault cyclotron . . .
Don’t see protons getting a rug pulling tbh. Used to. Don’t anymore. Not after APM got successfully tanked. Even United commercial policy eg deems protons and photons equivalent for prostate. CMS is essentially forced to consider the cost of proton equipment in its reimbursement. It should always reimburse pretty reasonable. Maybe not Boardwalk level but at least Illinois Avenue.

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Don’t see protons getting a rug pulling tbh. Used to. Don’t anymore. Not after APM got successfully tanked. Even United commercial policy eg deems protons and photons equivalent for prostate. CMS is essentially forced to consider the cost of proton equipment in its reimbursement. It should always reimburse pretty reasonable. Maybe not Boardwalk level but at least Illinois Avenue.

I tend to agree with this. There is a lot of lobbying money/clout for places that have protons. Optics of government cutting funding are not good.

With that said, I could see targeted cuts (ie medicare prostate proton rate gets cut back to IMRT) for certain indications if the randomized trials are clearly not showing any benefit.
 
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The Centers cost went way down and the reimbursement while less is still high.

There is a company called Apollo Healthcare helping some centers fight the UM battle. They are printing serious money doing it.
Nearly every 3-4 room center that was not attached to a major university/academic campus (e.g. UPENN, MGH, Mayo or MD Anderson) has gone bankrupt or had to refinance at least once to stay afloat:

Procure Somerset, NJ
Procure OK City, OK
Procure Seattle
Procure Chicago

Indiana University - shut down permanently
Univ of Maryland - making interest-only payments on their $250 million mortgage, in default
Provision Knoxville
Provision Nashville
Provision Orlando - didn't get done with construction, likely for sale cheap if you want a concrete hole in the ground
California Protons

The one-room centers have been touted as the solution to this problem, but even those are now beginning to fall behind on their repayment terms, including

Proton International at UAB
Proton International at Delray Beach, FL

Regarding the question about private funding for these centers, I don't think debt is a viable model anymore. Interest rates are too high and there is no opportunity to start repayment for at least 2 years - one year for center construction plus one year for machine installation and commissioning. Most of the one-room centers cost about 20-25 million for the building and 20 million for the machine (Varian compact single room gantry or the IBA half gantry.)

There are solutions to the cost problem but I think it requires some disruptive changes and clinical risk taking as far as installing new concepts like the Mevion + Leo Chair system that debuted at ASTRO.
 
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Nearly every 3-4 room center that was not attached to a major university/academic campus (e.g. UPENN, MGH, Mayo or MD Anderson) has gone bankrupt or had to refinance at least once to stay afloat:

Procure Somerset, NJ
Procure OK City, OK
Procure Seattle
Procure Chicago

Indiana University - shut down permanently
Univ of Maryland - making interest-only payments on their $250 million mortgage, in default
Provision Knoxville
Provision Nashville
Provision Orlando - didn't get done with construction, likely for sale cheap if you want a concrete hole in the ground
California Protons

The one-room centers have been touted as the solution to this problem, but even those are now beginning to fall behind on their repayment terms, including

Proton International at UAB
Proton International at Delray Beach, FL

Regarding the question about private funding for these centers, I don't think debt is a viable model anymore. Interest rates are too high and there is no opportunity to start repayment for at least 2 years - one year for center construction plus one year for machine installation and commissioning. Most of the one-room centers cost about 20-25 million for the building and 20 million for the machine (Varian compact single room gantry or the IBA half gantry.)

There are solutions to the cost problem but I think it requires some disruptive changes and clinical risk taking as far as installing new concepts like the Mevion + Leo Chair system that debuted at ASTRO.

I think the debt is key.

I *think* they can cash flow if you have a reserve/foundation that can pay cash for them. It's the bond payments/debt payments that kill you.

Thus, I think you'll see PE exit this space. But big places with cash on hand/endowments/foundations will and can continue building them.
 
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Nearly every 3-4 room center that was not attached to a major university/academic campus (e.g. UPENN, MGH, Mayo or MD Anderson) has gone bankrupt or had to refinance at least once to stay afloat:

Procure Somerset, NJ
Procure OK City, OK
Procure Seattle
Procure Chicago

Indiana University - shut down permanently
Univ of Maryland - making interest-only payments on their $250 million mortgage, in default
Provision Knoxville
Provision Nashville
Provision Orlando - didn't get done with construction, likely for sale cheap if you want a concrete hole in the ground
California Protons

The one-room centers have been touted as the solution to this problem, but even those are now beginning to fall behind on their repayment terms, including

Proton International at UAB
Proton International at Delray Beach, FL

Regarding the question about private funding for these centers, I don't think debt is a viable model anymore. Interest rates are too high and there is no opportunity to start repayment for at least 2 years - one year for center construction plus one year for machine installation and commissioning. Most of the one-room centers cost about 20-25 million for the building and 20 million for the machine (Varian compact single room gantry or the IBA half gantry.)

There are solutions to the cost problem but I think it requires some disruptive changes and clinical risk taking as far as installing new concepts like the Mevion + Leo Chair system that debuted at ASTRO.
Fascinating. You are very plugged in to the proton gossip!
 
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I think the debt is key.

I *think* they can cash flow if you have a reserve/foundation that can pay cash for them. It's the bond payments/debt payments that kill you.

Thus, I think you'll see PE exit this space. But big places with cash on hand/endowments/foundations will and can continue building them.
You are correct.

Many of the proton centers listed above were technically operating in the black, but could not come up with the additional $8 million in bond payments every 6 months. I'm told that some had debt tranches at 8% or higher, which is a real killer.

There is a ton of overhead in a 3-4 room center too, which makes it hard to run lean during COVID or other challenging times like initial startup.

The places that attract patients from across the country and overseas will remain busy. My center recently heard from a patient in Texas who is considering travel out of state because he was told MDA now has a waiting list to get in for protons. This means they are probably treating from 4 AM to midnight, with the rest of the time devoted to mandatory machine maintenance and patient-specific plan QA.

Large donations like Mayo's recent $100 million from the Andersen Windows foundation to expand their current 4 room capacity in Rochester can make for a very uneven playing field. They will probably have profitability from the start, plus they can charge what they want.

In the end, the proton debt crisis reminds me of the SNL sketch from 2006 with Steve Martin: Don't Buy Stuff You Can't Afford, just before the housing boom went bust.

I feel very badly for the centers that had to do a reset, and even worse for Indiana that basically lost 100 skilled jobs overnight. Many people probably could not live there anymore as a particle physicist or therapist or engineer. Fortunately, the cost of machines has come down by about half since then, and the quality has gone up with things like pencil beam and CBCT now standard. I hope the debt cycle stops repeating itself.
 
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However, so far so good for PBT facilities? Only Indiana shut, which was a special case
 
I wish that having modern pencil beam, a compact one room center, and a strong academic partner to fill it with patients guaranteed financial success. However, if UAB is any indication (and it checks all those boxes), they still defaulted on some of their bonds in 2021.

Indiana is a special case, closed never to reopen, because they had such horrendous overhead in people and difficult to run machinery that they could not break even financially, even without high interest debt. Upgrading or replacing their cyclotron to be more reliable was considered but ultimately decided against.

The number one expense in a proton center is the same as most radiation departments: salaries. The reliability issue of the machines, even the new ones, currently entail on-site engineers and 2-3 times the number of PhD physicists per proton vault compared to a linac vault.
 
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2-3 times the number of PhD physicists per proton vault compared to a linac vault.
To all these proton centers struggling financially, I say good riddance. I need a physicist. The lone somewhat positive clinical trial for protons in esophagus used a composite endpoint (while described as brilliant by some, I'd consider this binning or "cheating" as standard endpoints should do the trick when your data is good). The biological fundamentals seem to remain poorly understood per this community doc's non-expert review of the literature. The same academic docs who were gushing about head and neck indications, when they got their machines and had first hand experience with acute toxicity benefits, are now less enthusiastic as reports of excessive late toxicity emerge.

The longstanding centers can do the job for the exceptionally rare patient that I believe would benefit from a proton referral.

In an ironic converse to Jim Cox's old statement that "everyone would use protons if they could", I would say that "(almost) no one would use protons if they paid the same".

Of course, I feel for anyone who loses their job. But my general feeling is that large centers feel that only large centers should exist. I do not believe that most proton initiatives were genuinely motivated by goals to provide better care, but were rather motivated by a desire to demonstrate market superiority.
 
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To all these proton centers struggling financially, I say good riddance. I need a physicist. The lone somewhat positive clinical trial for protons in esophagus used a composite endpoint (while described as brilliant by some, I'd consider this binning or "cheating" as standard endpoints should do the trick when your data is good). The biological fundamentals seem to remain poorly understood per this community doc's non-expert review of the literature. The same academic docs who were gushing about head and neck indications, when they got their machines and had first hand experience with acute toxicity benefits, are now less enthusiastic as reports of excessive late toxicity emerge.

The longstanding centers can do the job for the exceptionally rare patient that I believe would benefit from a proton referral.

In an ironic converse to Jim Cox's old statement that "everyone would use protons if they could", I would say that "(almost) no one would use protons if they paid the same".

Of course, I feel for anyone who loses their job. But my general feeling is that large centers feel that only large centers should exist. I do not believe that most proton initiatives were genuinely motivated by goals to provide better care, but were rather motivated by a desire to demonstrate market superiority.

All of this is true and it won’t stop smaller centers from trying. Especially with this newer smaller proton designs that have started to emerge
 
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I view myself as a Professional Photon Machine, but that is somewhat unwieldly, so I've shortened it to ProTon Machine for advertising purposes.
 
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pretty amazing what you can find on the internet

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Those statements are interesting. A couple of thoughts…


I’ve had enough real estate K1s that show losses (when they’re aren’t really losses) to be skeptical that there are actual losses there. Obviously depreciation does some heavy lifting there…but it’s hard to say…37 under treat at UAB by ‘21…I’d bet they’re happy with that number in a single room set up.

That proton case mix at UAB is interesting. Head/neck doing the work. If that randomized trial is negative….
 
"I look at the boards of RO organizations such as ASTRO. I realize many of them work at proton centers. I look at their messaging regarding protons. I look at these spreadsheets. Ah, now it all makes sense."

Says everyone, I hope.
"we investigated ourselves and.. No just kidding. We didn't even do that. Now fyck off.."

-ASTRO Board
 
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Those statements are interesting. A couple of thoughts…


I’ve had enough real estate K1s that show losses (when they’re aren’t really losses) to be skeptical that there are actual losses there. Obviously depreciation does some heavy lifting there…but it’s hard to say…37 under treat at UAB by ‘21…I’d bet they’re happy with that number in a single room set up.

That proton case mix at UAB is interesting. Head/neck doing the work. If that randomized trial is negative….

Well it's a non-inferiority trial of PFS so if thats negative that's a huge surprise and problem for proton evangelists. My prediction: it will be positive and all proton centers will call it a positive trial in a lot of advertisements. Depending on toxicity data, it may make sense to convert an entire academic HN service line to protons. It's just going to be disappointing if the toxicities are kind of close and can't really be rigorously compared since they were made secondary. It may be much harder to decide if the average patient should spend the money and effort to travel for protons.

It will be interesting to review this trial alongside DAHANCA, who was brave enough to ask the question everyone really wants to know with toxicity as a primary end point.
 
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The Maryland budget shows some of the downsides of living the proton life:

1. Downtime - 14 days of unplanned non-treatment out of 6 months; makes for some very unhappy patients, staff and mortgage holders.

2. Slow delivery times - 29 to 31 minutes average treatment time means only 2 patients per vault per hour. Even with 4 rooms and getting 3-4x IMRT payment rates, I don't think they can break even with $277 million in debt.

3. Expensive maintenance - their annual service contract costs about $5 million for Varian, which works out to roughly $1 million for the accelerator and $1 million per gantry, every single year

4. Cost of utilities - nearly $1 million per year just to keep the lights on and protons moving
 
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Well it's a non-inferiority trial of PFS so if thats negative that's a huge surprise and problem for proton evangelists. My prediction: it will be positive and all proton centers will call it a positive trial in a lot of advertisements. Depending on toxicity data, it may make sense to convert an entire academic HN service line to protons. It's just going to be disappointing if the toxicities are kind of close and can't really be rigorously compared since they were made secondary. It may be much harder to decide if the average patient should spend the money and effort to travel for protons.

It will be interesting to review this trial alongside DAHANCA, who was brave enough to ask the question everyone really wants to know with toxicity as a primary end point.
Has there been any public commentary or any push back regarding the end point(s) of that trial?

Seems pretty shady.
 
Has there been any public commentary or any push back regarding the end point(s) of that trial?

Seems pretty shady.
iirc the endpoints changed; but last iteration i saw had a ph2 component with late grade 3+ as an endpoint. Surprised it hasn't been published yet since the ph2 cohort should have all reached the specified timepoint.
 
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Yeah. All crap. By the time a research group is demonstrating difficulty establishing an endpoint to study with a study underway, you know you can’t believe a damn thing.

The fact is our Bayesian prior for expecting improved PFS or OS by protons is nothing. At this point, it is likely that there will be an increased risk of catastrophic late toxicity with protons. They may find an acute or dynamic with time toxicity endpoint that favors protons but again, a truly superior technique should be easily demonstrable as such.

 
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Yeah. All crap. By the time a research group is demonstrating difficulty establishing an endpoint to study with a study underway, you know you can’t believe a damn thing.

The fact is our Bayesian prior for expecting improved PFS or OS by protons is nothing. At this point, it is likely that there will be an increased risk of catastrophic late toxicity with protons. They may find an acute or dynamic with time toxicity endpoint that favors protons but again, a truly superior technique should be easily demonstrable as such.


Tufte rules
 
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In the podcast he mentions surefy way to detect medical bull****: when title includes something like ai driven machine Learning to predict treatment failure and metastasis.
 
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Yeah. All crap. By the time a research group is demonstrating difficulty establishing an endpoint to study with a study underway, you know you can’t believe a damn thing.

The fact is our Bayesian prior for expecting improved PFS or OS by protons is nothing. At this point, it is likely that there will be an increased risk of catastrophic late toxicity with protons. They may find an acute or dynamic with time toxicity endpoint that favors protons but again, a truly superior technique should be easily demonstrable as such.



I have great respect for PIs that take on national trials, but it is not for me due to the reasons documented in that paper. The politics in US oncology are embarrassing.
 
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I have great respect for PIs that take on national trials
Obviously, I've never done it (or even a small investigator initiated trial). Must be a horrendous amount of work and take tremendous time as well as organization skills and vigilance.

We have very smart, dedicated nurses working full time just to allow us to responsibly participate in these trials.

Much easier to armchair the thinking behind the trials than to run them. Should be acknowledged.

I do wonder if the backroom environment can impede good thinking on these trials? Any insights?
 
Obviously, I've never done it (or even a small investigator initiated trial). Must be a horrendous amount of work and take tremendous time as well as organization skills and vigilance.

We have very smart, dedicated nurses working full time just to allow us to responsibly participate in these trials.

Much easier to armchair the thinking behind the trials than to run them. Should be acknowledged.

I do wonder if the backroom environment can impede good thinking on these trials? Any insights?
Yeah the insights are dollars and they say the trials have to work in favor of protons being a better treatment even if it means marginally so by making up some statistical bs via contorted side effect endpoints.

"if you aren't sure it's about the money... Its always about the damn money.. Always."

-me
 
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Obviously, I've never done it (or even a small investigator initiated trial). Must be a horrendous amount of work and take tremendous time as well as organization skills and vigilance.

We have very smart, dedicated nurses working full time just to allow us to responsibly participate in these trials.

Much easier to armchair the thinking behind the trials than to run them. Should be acknowledged.

I do wonder if the backroom environment can impede good thinking on these trials? Any insights?
Hurts to see a pure and beautiful concept get chopped into sausage in the multi-institutional or cooperative group setting. But often for the better as the changes remove some local bias and make the protocol and results more relevant to a larger number.
 
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Much easier to armchair the thinking behind the trials than to run them. Should be acknowledged.

I do wonder if the backroom environment can impede good thinking on these trials? Any insights?

Is it easier? Haha. Sorry but it triggers me when people pull this crap like you can only critique a trial if you've run one. Any medical student that has taken an EBM course should be able to critique a trial. You don't need special training to know that a PFS non-inferiority trial testing protons for HN is a weak design that is obviously biased by non-scientific interests.

I have only run IITs and participated in NRG work groups, so don't have extensive experience either. A small glimpse of the environment drove me to want to sit out hahaha, but thats just personal. There are a lot of things about academic oncology that I thought I would like but actually hated when I started doing them day to day as a job.

It's not really backroom dealings here, it's just that the group has limited funding and therefore pick the trials they like and will give feedback on the design. In the Frank trial, they wrote it all up so it's public. Sue Yom is the current chair, you could ask her, she might share how the sausage is made.
 
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Based on the reports above I was able to calculate that UAB is prescribing on average about 13 fractions per proton patient while Maryland prescribes about 25 fractions. Is UAB using protons as a boost in many photon cases? A lot of 5 fraction breast (but why when they could do more)? The math is the math. It just doesn’t make immediate sense.
 
Based on the reports above I was able to calculate that UAB is prescribing on average about 13 fractions per proton patient while Maryland prescribes about 25 fractions. Is UAB using protons as a boost in many photon cases? A lot of 5 fraction breast (but why when they could do more)? The math is the math. It just doesn’t make immediate sense.
No, I think billing rules do not allow for proton boost (just like SBRT boost). Maybe bad data?
 
Based on the reports above I was able to calculate that UAB is prescribing on average about 13 fractions per proton patient while Maryland prescribes about 25 fractions. Is UAB using protons as a boost in many photon cases? A lot of 5 fraction breast (but why when they could do more)? The math is the math. It just doesn’t make immediate sense.
I think a large part is that UAB doesn't treat a lot of prostate pts
 
But which form of PBT would use fewer than 15 fractions?

Maybe math is wrong? the biggest diagnosis was head/neck, so surely not hypofrac there.

BUt possible they have a proton SBRT prostate trial? I don't know.
Or doing 5 fraction breast?
 
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At the end of the day, people buy protons (in the US) to make money. They pay lip service to everything else but profit is the driving motive. That being said, the best way to maximize profit is to maximize utilization. MDACC has the perfect model for this - they treat everything and anything and (I'm sure) have back-door pathways for patients with deep pockets (like Saudi royalty).

If you buy a proton machine (even single vault like Mevion) and take the view that you will only treat "appropriately" then you are on the road to bankruptcy. Two of the biggest proven benefits of protons is in kids and re-irradiation. As we know, once kids get cancer it absolutely wrecks most families and leads to divorce, personal bankruptcy, eviction, etc. The chances that the parents of these children have "premium" insurance or can pay cash is low. Similarly if an adult patient needs repeat irradiation, it implies that they have probably already had a long journey through the US health system. As such, it is likely that they have been financially destroyed by co-pays, deductibles and loss of job and therefore insurance.

Unlike various forms of systemic therapy which have very robust and well-funded programs to defray/eliminate costs to patients these programs are virtually non-existent for radiation.
 
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At the end of the day, people buy protons (in the US) to make money. They pay lip service to everything else but profit is the driving motive. That being said, the best way to maximize profit is to maximize utilization. MDACC has the perfect model for this - they treat everything and anything and (I'm sure) have back-door pathways for patients with deep pockets (like Saudi royalty).

If you buy a proton machine (even single vault like Mevion) and take the view that you will only treat "appropriately" then you are on the road to bankruptcy. Two of the biggest proven benefits of protons is in kids and re-irradiation. As we know, once kids get cancer it absolutely wrecks most families and leads to divorce, personal bankruptcy, eviction, etc. The chances that the parents of these children have "premium" insurance or can pay cash is low. Similarly if an adult patient needs repeat irradiation, it implies that they have probably already had a long journey through the US health system. As such, it is likely that they have been financially destroyed by co-pays, deductibles and loss of job and therefore insurance.

Unlike various forms of systemic therapy which have very robust and well-funded programs to defray/eliminate costs to patients these programs are virtually non-existent for radiation.
I trained at a center that had a moral high ground initially during my PGY-2 year "we don't put prostates on protons". By PGY-5...prostates were getting protons.

Where I practice, we have protons and I don't push the modality by any means, but many patients inquire or basically request it and if they do, I treat them with protons. I tell them straight up "this is probably not going to work any better, the DVH curve may look better but it may not have a meaningful impact in lowering toxicity."
 
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At the end of the day, people buy protons (in the US) to make money. They pay lip service to everything else but profit is the driving motive. That being said, the best way to maximize profit is to maximize utilization. MDACC has the perfect model for this - they treat everything and anything and (I'm sure) have back-door pathways for patients with deep pockets (like Saudi royalty).

If you buy a proton machine (even single vault like Mevion) and take the view that you will only treat "appropriately" then you are on the road to bankruptcy. Two of the biggest proven benefits of protons is in kids and re-irradiation. As we know, once kids get cancer it absolutely wrecks most families and leads to divorce, personal bankruptcy, eviction, etc. The chances that the parents of these children have "premium" insurance or can pay cash is low. Similarly if an adult patient needs repeat irradiation, it implies that they have probably already had a long journey through the US health system. As such, it is likely that they have been financially destroyed by co-pays, deductibles and loss of job and therefore insurance.

Unlike various forms of systemic therapy which have very robust and well-funded programs to defray/eliminate costs to patients these programs are virtually non-existent for radiation.

Nuance goes out the window once you get a proton center. The Penn satellites know this well. The overlords are watching making sure their investment pays off. See LGH

This is also why I can’t take their fraction Virtue signaling with any seriousness.
 
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Nuance goes out the window once you get a proton center. The Penn satellites know this well. The overlords are watching making sure their investment pays off. See LGH

This is also why I can’t take their fraction Virtue signaling with any seriousness.
To be honest, anybody who tells me what I “should” be doing, I automatically ignore. I’ve learned a lot being out in the real world and most of it is what gfunk has stated about the underlying factor in any decision is money.
 
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To be honest, anybody who tells me what I “should” be doing, I automatically ignore. I’ve learned a lot being out in the real world and most of it is what gfunk has stated about the underlying factor in any decision is money.
For about 5 years I ranted on this board about the price gouging at academic centers. I assume almost every resident assumed I was some type of q anon loony until some hospitals published their negotiated prices.
 
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For about 5 years I ranted on this board about the price gouging at academic centers. I assume almost every resident assumed I was some type of q anon loony until some hospitals published their negotiated prices.
lol its because residents are groomed to think community practitioners are greedy.
now in the community - i realize we are a lot more cost conscious (not blanket using IMRT for everything) and probably get paid much much less than the ivory tower
 
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I trained at a center that had a moral high ground initially during my PGY-2 year "we don't put prostates on protons". By PGY-5...prostates were getting protons.

Where I practice, we have protons and I don't push the modality by any means, but many patients inquire or basically request it and if they do, I treat them with protons. I tell them straight up "this is probably not going to work any better, the DVH curve may look better but it may not have a meaningful impact in lowering toxicity."
That's a nice moral position to be in. Enviable. Enjoy it while it lasts.
 
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