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sevoflurane said:
Here we go.... as predicted...

AGQ already up 8%
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It has only been a year. A stroll down memory lane is in order:

http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?t=846840

By the way I hit a rebalancing band in stocks today and sold some. I bought the maximum for myself and for my wife of series EE US Savings bonds. Been buying the maximum of series I Bonds for years. This is the first time that I bought EE. In my situation it is the best of a series of lousy fixed income choices.
 
dr doze said:
It has only been a year. A stroll down memory lane is in order:

http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?t=846840

By the way I hit a rebalancing band in stocks today and sold some. I bought the maximum for myself and for my wife of series EE US Savings bonds. Been buying the maximum of series I Bonds for years. This is the first time that I bought EE. In my situation it is the best of a series of lousy fixed income choices.
Click to expand...

Heh, that thread reminded me I never got around to peeing in my compost bin.


I just noticed that the max I Bond purchase went up to $10K/person this year.
 
yup. was 10K last few years (5k paper 5k electronic with treasury direct). Now there are no paper savings bonds issued. All electronic. I bonds used to be a sweet deal for a few years, 30k maimum per ss#. 3% + real rates and for gravy you could even buy them with a rewards credit card with no additional fees. Wasn't maxing then. Hadn't read enough financial history at that point in my career.
 
Doze is usually right about these things but I believe he is wrong here. The best bet is not more worthless treasuries but real hard assets which will hold value against a debased currency.

If it hurts when you drop it on your foot then consider buying it. Real assets in many categories are cheap right now but they won't remain that way forever. The rich and the central bankers know that the dollar is not the currency it once was and won't likely ever be again.
 
Compost piles are a great analogy for investing. Save early and often, let time and the magic of compounding do the work for you. The key to succesful investing is not messing with the pile very much at all.
 
dr doze said:
Compost piles are a great analogy for investing. Save early and often, let time and the magic of compounding do the work for you. The key to succesful investing is not messing with the pile very much at all.
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While you may not like investing in Gold there are companies which dig commodities out of the ground. These commodities are cheaply priced against the dollar and inflation right now.

Coal stocks- left for dead
Steel Stocks- some are extremely cheap
Iron ore miners- there is value here


I won't even mention the silver, platinum or gold mining stocks which have plenty of room to run from here.
 
dr doze said:
Compost piles are a great analogy for investing. Save early and often, let time and the magic of compounding do the work for you. The key to succesful investing is not messing with the pile very much at all.
Click to expand...

Great analogy: Compost piles equals US dollar value in a few years
 
BLADEMDA said:
If it hurts when you drop it on your foot then consider buying it.
Click to expand...

Physical only?


I'm pretty pessimistic about the long term prospects for the US Dollar, but I still put a % in bonds. I'm not going to try to predict if it all goes to hell next year or in 10 years or 20. As bad as things could get here, the rest of the world can always get worse faster.

My two can't-fail investment plans for the next year are
- plowing as much money into my military TSP account while deployed (tax free in AND tax free coming out)
- paying down a house we own with a 6.5% 30y loan so the LTV gets low enough for us to refinance into a ~3% 15y

I don't buy individual stocks or try to time anything. I have rough %s to stay diversified and pay as little attention as I can. 🙂
 
The key to successful investing is to look at your entire portfolio as a whole. I expect some element of my portfolio to be losing money every year. I fully expect that the fixed income portion of portfolio will return a negative after tax return going forward. So why do I hold any? three reasons:
1. I cannot tolerate the volatility of a 100% equity portfolio
2. To maintain a store of value when markets tank with which to buy equities
3. I am north of 50. I cannot risk a Japan style deflationary multidecade collapse with an all equity portfolio.

As for EE bonds. I already have plenty of liquidity: stable income at least for a few more years, Lots in Vanguard bond funds.
I am out of tax deferred space. EE bonds are tax deferred and free from state and local income taxes. Currently high tax bracket expect lower bracket in 20 years when they are guaranteed to double with a 3.5% return if held the full 20 years. Possibly might be able to use them tax free for a future grandchild's college tuition (current law with income phase outs). If rates do rise sufficiently I can redeem them with minimal penalty and by higher yielding securities.

You cannot buy yesterday's yields. Nobody knows when yields will rise. In my demographic I calculate they are the best fixed income option for new money.

I have 15% of my portfolio in REITs and commodities which should hang in there with inflation. If the fed kills the dollar 55% of my equity portfolio is international stocks that are not hedged against the dollar. This should protect me.

I am longing for another credit crisis and TIPs to sell off like they did a few years ago. Real yields were north of 3%. I will back up the truck
 
BLADEMDA said:
While you may not like investing in Gold there are companies which dig commodities out of the ground. These commodities are cheaply priced against the dollar and inflation right now.

Coal stocks- left for dead
Steel Stocks- some are extremely cheap
Iron ore miners- there is value here


I won't even mention the silver, platinum or gold mining stocks which have plenty of room to run from here.
Click to expand...

There are multiple reasonable arguments and portfolio strategies that involve holding precious metals and precious metal equities in a diversified portfolio as an asset class. I just don't use any of them.

The Peter Schiff and Ron Paul arguments ain't among them. For the simple reason that the market knows them and has priced them in.
 
dr doze said:
There are multiple reasonable arguments and portfolio strategies that involve holding precious metals and precious metal equities in a diversified portfolio as an asset class. I just don't use any of them.

The Peter Schiff and Ron Paul arguments ain't among them. For the simple reason that the market knows them and has priced them in.
Click to expand...

Really? The market has mispriced assets since 2008. Even your Tips over the past few years reflects the market has gotten it wrong.
 
I think that there are several fundamental factors which should lead to further appreciation of gold and silver price. The factors are as follows:

The monetary policy of ECB and FED. Weak economic data in the World, high level of unemployment in the U.S. and fiscal problems in Europe forced central banks to introduce monetary stimulus. Gold and silver began to go up sharply after Mario Draghi unexpectedly announced the ECB program of unlimited bond-buying. Last Friday precious metals rallied after weaker than expected payroll data which made perspective of the QE3 more probable. Gold and silver have always been perceived as a hedge against such types of monetary policies.
Central banks buy gold to diversify their reserves. According to the World Gold Council, official sector purchases in 2010 equaled to 77.3 tonnes. In 2011 they were 457.9 tonnes. It's worth mentioning that the purchases in 2011 were the biggest in 40 years. During the first half of 2012, central banks bought 254.2 tonnes of gold, 25% more than in the same period of 2011. Central banks were very active in the second quarter of 2012, when they purchased 157.5 tonnes of gold.
The real interest rates in many countries are below zero. This means that investing in government bonds in countries like the USA, Germany, the UK may result in real losses. Gold is an attractive alternative because historically, gold provided average annual return of 5 percentage points over inflation in the U.S.
 
Love these threads. Thanks for your input Doze, Blade, Pgg.

While I do understand rebalancing once you meet a certain preset goal... I am a little curious as to why one would do so at the point in time when the FED is injecting 40 billion into the economy... monthly. I would think you would want to ride that horse for a little while at least.

In particular, companies like alcoa, copper, timber, home depot/lowes, silver, gold... I mean, it looks like the housing market is starting to pick up a little speed and Bernanke is focused on getting new homes built.

It just seems like you can skim off the top of some of these companies before rebalancing away from stocks.

That being said, I've been listening to Doze for a while and he has been right on target. Buying stocks last year at the time that he went in has most certainly paid off for him. 👍
 
I started buying silver/AGQ about a month ago in anticipation of QE3. The stock is up 54% in that time.
 
sevoflurane said:
Love these threads. Thanks for your input Doze, Blade, Pgg.

While I do understand rebalancing once you meet a certain preset goal... I am a little curious as to why one would do so at the point in time when the FED is injecting 40 billion into the economy... monthly. I would think you would want to ride that horse for a little while at least.

In particular, companies like alcoa, copper, timber, home depot/lowes, silver, gold... I mean, it looks like the housing market is starting to pick up a little speed and Bernanke is focused on getting new homes built.

It just seems like you can skim off the top of some of these companies before rebalancing away from stocks.

That being said, I've been listening to Doze for a while and he has been right on target. Buying stocks last year at the time that he went in has most certainly paid off for him. 👍
Click to expand...

What you are talking about is market timing. I pulled the trigger because I hit a predetermined threshhold. Given the QE,I agree that the Dow is more likely to hit 18,000 than 8,000. But Idon't invest based on my beliefs in where the market is going except in the very long term. There are two types of investors. THose who don't know where the market is headed and those who don't know that they don't know.
 
Careful with silver/agq. It goes up fast, but it comes down even faster.

The silver market is easy to rig. Just Google Hunt brothers & silver.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Really? The market has mispriced assets since 2008. Even your Tips over the past few years reflects the market has gotten it wrong.
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The market is what the market is. What is the 'correct' price and correct real return of any asset going forward?
 
dr doze said:
The market is what the market is. What is the 'correct' price and correct real return of any asset going forward?
Click to expand...

The volatility in stocks have been quite large over the past 24 months. Buying on dips or massive sell-offs has resulted in huge gains; this is due to the market mispricing assets:

There are areas of the market still left for dead. Coal and Natural Gas are among them. My contrarian purchases have resulted in substantial gains provided you are are willing to wait 24-36 months. When the market was selling APPLE at $303 a share I was buying. When the Market was selling JPM at $32 a share I was buying. Recently, I have been buying Peabody Energy at $23 a share.

This 'Contrarian' buying worked for SunTrust, WellsFargo, US Bank, etc. The only Bank it didn't work for was Bank of America.

I have never seen more mispriced assets by Mr. Market in my lifetime. Of Course, Mr. Market is now OVER PRICING some assets so it may be time to sell.

Doze, you really do have a good strategy for investing over the long run. But, the price swings in some companies are just too large to ignore. Small Caps can make you a fortune or lose you a ton of money so I tend to stick with Large caps for my individual equity purchases.

Right now, the Coal, Steel and Natural Gas names look cheaply valued. I'll continue to be a buyer on pullbacks (just like I did with Financials, Tech stocks and Gold/Platinum).
 
pt0182nyb.gif
 
So many good companies left for dead by WallStreet. But, when the tide turns these names usually pop 50% pretty quickly. All you need is diversification in names and patience.
 
look up "MT" Mr. Market is selling this company for $17 a share and fair value is around $40.00

Buy now and just wait 3-4 years for a 100% plus gain.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=MT

This is EXACTLY what Warren Buffet did with WellsFargo and US Bank. He buys low then sells high. BTU and MT are perfect examples of the Buffet strategy. There many, many more out there.

I'm not recommending all your assets be invested this way. Doze is correct about his investment style for the long run. But, a % of your portfolio can be set aside for your trades or individual equity names. For investing buy stocks with good companies which are disfavored by the Street.
 
BLADEMDA said:
I think that there are several fundamental factors which should lead to further appreciation of gold and silver price. The factors are as follows:

The monetary policy of ECB and FED. Weak economic data in the World, high level of unemployment in the U.S. and fiscal problems in Europe forced central banks to introduce monetary stimulus. Gold and silver began to go up sharply after Mario Draghi unexpectedly announced the ECB program of unlimited bond-buying. Last Friday precious metals rallied after weaker than expected payroll data which made perspective of the QE3 more probable. Gold and silver have always been perceived as a hedge against such types of monetary policies.
Central banks buy gold to diversify their reserves. According to the World Gold Council, official sector purchases in 2010 equaled to 77.3 tonnes. In 2011 they were 457.9 tonnes. It's worth mentioning that the purchases in 2011 were the biggest in 40 years. During the first half of 2012, central banks bought 254.2 tonnes of gold, 25% more than in the same period of 2011. Central banks were very active in the second quarter of 2012, when they purchased 157.5 tonnes of gold.
The real interest rates in many countries are below zero. This means that investing in government bonds in countries like the USA, Germany, the UK may result in real losses. Gold is an attractive alternative because historically, gold provided average annual return of 5 percentage points over inflation in the U.S.
Click to expand...

Bonds are almost guaranteed to provide negative real after tax returns going forward.
I still own and will continue to own plenty. stock markets can and do drop 50-70% and stay down. Take a look at the Japanese stock market since 1990 performance in real terms. It can happen here.
If you are worried about the dollar being debased, credit markets (with the exceptions of Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe) rapidly reprice short term fixed income rates in local currency. Since WW2 there have been multi year sustained double digit inflation rates in France, Israel and Mexico. Long term Bond holders got killed. Short term holders got hurt. (again in local currency) Of course those currencies got crushed on the FOREX markets.
Gold has not provided an average annual return of 5 percentage points over inflation unless you are data mining.

http://www.vanguardblog.com/2010.07.26/gold-rush.html
 
dr doze said:
Bonds are almost guaranteed to provide negative real after tax returns going forward.
I still own and will continue to own plenty. stock markets can and do drop 50-70% and stay down. Take a look at the Japanese stock market since 1990 performance in real terms. It can happen here.
If you are worried about the dollar being debased, credit markets (with the exceptions of Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe) rapidly reprice short term fixed income rates in local currency. Since WW2 there have been multi year sustained double digit inflation rates in France, Israel and Mexico. Long term Bond holders got killed. Short term holders got hurt. (again in local currency) Of course those currencies got crushed on the FOREX markets.
Gold has not provided an average annual return of 5 percentage points over inflation unless you are data mining.

http://www.vanguardblog.com/2010.07.26/gold-rush.html
Click to expand...

My muni bond fund pays 5%, 6.4% corrected for tax savings at AMT level. Maybe there will be sustained inflation over 5-6%, maybe not. You have to put your money somewhere, and it's probably wise to diversify with at least some savings in bonds.
Maybe I'll lose principal greater than the payout rate or maybe I'll gain a lot in pricipal when dividend taxes go up and muni funds get relatively more attractive.
 
GypsySongman said:
My muni bond fund pays 5%, 6.4% corrected for tax savings at AMT level. Maybe there will be sustained inflation over 5-6%, maybe not. You have to put your money somewhere, and it's probably wise to diversify with at least some savings in bonds.
Maybe I'll lose principal greater than the payout rate or maybe I'll gain a lot in pricipal when dividend taxes go up and muni funds get relatively more attractive.
Click to expand...

I agree with diversification and hold a great deal in a variety of bond funds. My point is that with the FED printing money holding hard assets should be part of that diversification.

In addition, some people like myself purchase undervalued stocks when opportunity presents itself.

Overall, Doze is correct about his approach to investing but I'd rather hold precious metals rather than Treasuries at this point.
 
http://www.blanchardonline.com/beru/gold_vs_stock.php


Like anything Gold has had its periods of great returns. This is one of those times. If and when we get our fiscal house in order Gold may once again be a bad investment.

If Obama wins re-election what happens to the price of Gold? Why do you think so many central bankers are buying up tons of this stuff? The world currencies are being debased so Gold is being used as a default currency.

Don't like Gold? How about Platinum or Silver? Better yet a mixture of all three. I'm not advocating a 100 percent position in precious metals but a 5-10 percent portfolio allocation makes sense these days. FYI, the gold mining stocks really haven't participated in this recent run up that much. Hence, an Obama second term likely means outsized gains for the Gold miners.
 
Blade,

There is nothing wrong with precious metals or precious metals equity as part of a diversified portfolio that is rebalanced to target faithfully. But precious metals and equity are phenomally volatile and prone to multi decade cycles. It takes incredible discipline to buy, hold, and rebalance an asset class with these charactersitics. The following piece was written in the mid 90s:

http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/197/preci197.htm

Interesting how the chart on your link starts at th begnning of a bull market on precious metals. AFTER a two decade brutal bear market in them. Data mining.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if gold outperforms a 10 year TIPs at current prices. It would surprise me a great deal if Gold outperformed a 30 year TIPs at current prices (reinvesting dividends for both).

Gypsy,

I use bonds for the safe portion of my portfolio. If your muni bond fund is paying 5% you are taking a bunch of risk. Either leverage by the manager, Duration risk, credit risk, or a bunch of your capital is being returned to you as a "dividend". Or a combination of the above.
 
QEchart.png


This is why I'd like to ride the horse for a little while... and with QE potentially going on until 2015... well, I'm just a little shy getting out right now.

The retroscope is always 20/20.
 
sevoflurane said:
QEchart.png


This is why I'd like to ride the horse for a little while... and with QE potentially going on until 2015... well, I'm just a little shy getting out right now.

The retroscope is always 20/20.
Click to expand...


Be careful. Notice how the effect of each stimulus is shorter than the previous one. If Obama wins re-election you may get a serious pullback as traders decide to take profits in anticipation of a recession due to the fiscal cliff in January.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Be careful. Notice how the effect of each stimulus is shorter than the previous one. If Obama wins re-election you may get a serious pullback as traders decide to take profits in anticipation of a recession due to the fiscal cliff in January.
Click to expand...

Oh... no doubt blade. I'm with Doze and most of you guys... but I'm just not ready... not yet. I haven't met my predetermined threshold at this point. But it is coming. 😉
 
dr doze said:
Blade,

There is nothing wrong with precious metals or precious metals equity as part of a diversified portfolio that is rebalanced to target faithfully. But precious metals and equity are phenomally volatile and prone to multi decade cycles. It takes incredible discipline to buy, hold, and rebalance an asset class with these charactersitics. The following piece was written in the mid 90s:

http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/197/preci197.htm

Interesting how the chart on your link starts at th begnning of a bull market on precious metals. AFTER a two decade brutal bear market in them. Data mining.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if gold outperforms a 10 year TIPs at current prices. It would surprise me a great deal if Gold outperformed a 30 year TIPs at current prices (reinvesting dividends for both).

Gypsy,

I use bonds for the safe portion of my portfolio. If your muni bond fund is paying 5% you are taking a bunch of risk. Either leverage by the manager, Duration risk, credit risk, or a bunch of your capital is being returned to you as a "dividend". Or a combination of the above.
Click to expand...

Investing doesn't take place in a vacuum. Look at the Debt to GDP of many of the world's democracies. Even the USA is looking at 100% debt to GDP. This is why Gold has become the true reserve currency.

You have been a skeptic of this concept since Gold hit $1,000 an ounce. You were wrong then as you are now. Gold won't stop going up until the governments get their houses in order. Will Obama be able to do that in 2013 or 2014? Will his massive tax hike on the "rich" solve our economic proplems? Will debasing our currency help the value of a dollar? Finally, is Gold really going up or is the dollar just going down in value?
 
I've been doing this for 3.5 years now. My return on investment (mainly stocks) has been excellent.... but I jumped in when the market was getting hit hard (just lucky timing).

And I'm still (relatively) young, so my risk tolerance is much higher than Blade or Doze.
 
sevoflurane said:
I've been doing this for 3.5 years now. My return on investment (mainly stocks) has been excellent.... but I jumped in when the market was getting hit hard (just lucky timing).

And I'm still (relatively) young, so my risk tolerance is much higher than Blade or Doze.
Click to expand...


Losing money is painful. Right now you are sitting on substantial gains. I hope you are prepared to watch a significant portion of those gains evaporate in December after Obama wins. Why not take half off the table next month and go buy a sweater.
 
If Obama does get re-elected and he implements huge taxes on long term capital gains, this could be a game changer.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Losing money is painful. Right now you are sitting on substantial gains. I hope you are prepared to watch a significant portion of those gains evaporate in December after Obama wins. Why not take half off the table next month and go buy a sweater.
Click to expand...

I have liquidated about 25%. I think we will rally through december. At that point, I'll likely be 25% stocks. Depending on what happens.

Again, I really appreciate the discussion.
 
dr doze said:
Blade,

There is nothing wrong with precious metals or precious metals equity as part of a diversified portfolio that is rebalanced to target faithfully. But precious metals and equity are phenomally volatile and prone to multi decade cycles. It takes incredible discipline to buy, hold, and rebalance an asset class with these charactersitics. The following piece was written in the mid 90s:

http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/197/preci197.htm

Interesting how the chart on your link starts at th begnning of a bull market on precious metals. AFTER a two decade brutal bear market in them. Data mining.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if gold outperforms a 10 year TIPs at current prices. It would surprise me a great deal if Gold outperformed a 30 year TIPs at current prices (reinvesting dividends for both).

Gypsy,

I use bonds for the safe portion of my portfolio. If your muni bond fund is paying 5% you are taking a bunch of risk. Either leverage by the manager, Duration risk, credit risk, or a bunch of your capital is being returned to you as a "dividend". Or a combination of the above.
Click to expand...

Vanguard Interm Term Tax exempt:
Average annual performance
The fund has returned 7.56 percent over the past year and 6.10 percent over the past three years.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Vanguard Interm Term Tax exempt:
Average annual performance
The fund has returned 7.56 percent over the past year and 6.10 percent over the past three years.
Click to expand...

I assumed that gyspy was talking about current YTM of his bond fund. Not past performance including capital appreciation. Current YTM is 1.8% with a duration of five years. Hard to see how there can be much more capital appreciation.

That has been my core bond fund in my taxable account. I am always looking at what future expected returns are of an asset at current prices.
 
BLADEMDA said:
Investing doesn't take place in a vacuum. Look at the Debt to GDP of many of the world's democracies. Even the USA is looking at 100% debt to GDP. This is why Gold has become the true reserve currency.

You have been a skeptic of this concept since Gold hit $1,000 an ounce. You were wrong then as you are now. Gold won't stop going up until the governments get their houses in order. Will Obama be able to do that in 2013 or 2014? Will his massive tax hike on the "rich" solve our economic proplems? Will debasing our currency help the value of a dollar? Finally, is Gold really going up or is the dollar just going down in value?
Click to expand...


I make no prediction about the price of gold or any other asset class. I simply chose a plan that based on the history of financial markets and my risk tolerance best fit my needs. Gold may be $3,000 or $300 a year from now. The Dow may be at 18,000 or 8,000. I honestly don't know. Don't confuse strategy with outcome. As I have said before I believe that there are many reasonable uses for precious metals and precious metals equity as an asset class in a portfolio. I just don't use them. The stock market has doubled since the lows of 2009. Did I buy at the very bottom? No, but I bought several times on the way down selling the treasuries that I had been accumulating that the talking heads said were overpriced.

I make no prediction about what an Obama second term will do to the dollar or currency markets or stock markets. Other than harvest some gains in assets that are close to a rebalancing band in a taxable account and accelerate charitable deductions in 2012, I will do nothing different to my investment portfolio no matter who wins in November.

I do predict that earning potential for currently well paid anesthesiologists will be worse under Obama than Romney.😱
 
dr doze said:
I make no prediction about the price of gold or any other asset class. I simply chose a plan that based on the history of financial markets and my risk tolerance best fit my needs. Gold may be $3,000 or $300 a year from now. The Dow may be at 18,000 or 8,000. I honestly don't know. Don't confuse strategy with outcome. As I have said before I believe that there are many reasonable uses for precious metals and precious metals equity as an asset class in a portfolio. I just don't use them. The stock market has doubled since the lows of 2009. Did I buy at the very bottom? No, but I bought several times on the way down selling the treasuries that I had been accumulating that the talking heads said were overpriced.

I make no prediction about what an Obama second term will do to the dollar or currency markets or stock markets. Other than harvest some gains in assets that are close to a rebalancing band in a taxable account and accelerate charitable deductions in 2012, I will do nothing different to my investment portfolio no matter who wins in November.

I do predict that earning potential for currently well paid anesthesiologists will be worse under Obama than Romney.😱
Click to expand...

I doubt many investors share your sentiment so I expect a lot of volatlity (sell-off) if Obama wins re-election; hence, if you are looking to rebalance your portfolio by selling equities then the next 4 weeks looks like a great time to do so.

However, an unexpected Romney win and the market rallies hard until the end of the year. I, for one, would be a buyer and not a seller if Romney wins.
 
http://cms.betashares.com.au/cms-admin/_images/10615103954fb4638d6714f.pdf

Doze, I understand your disdain for Gold. But, a small position as part of a diversified portfolio makes sense. My estimated precious metals and equities position is about 10% of my overall portfolio. I expect to trim 2-3% of that this year. Gold Stocks have proven more volatile than the precious metal itself.

Your investment style/strategy makes sense in a world where fiat curency has value and government respects debt. In a world where government prints unlimited currency and QE4 and 5 are around the corner I'd rather hold GOLD in my portfolio and my vault than just U.S. paper money.
 
In an interview 22 April this year, John Hathaway, Chief Portfolio Manager for the Tocqueville Gold Fund, said "To me this is an excellent opportunity. I've been putting money to work in the sector, particularly in the gold stocks, which are as cheap as I've ever seen them." He went on to say, "We are seeing values that I've never seen since I've been doing this for the last 13 years."

Don't want to own a Fund? The ETF GDX (large gold mining stocks) or GLD (Gold bullion)

(I own everything mentioned in this post)
 
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Doze,

With Dividend income likely to be taxed at double current rates by Obama next year what is your strstegy in your taxable account? Unlike you I will be selling mucho equities and funds in my taxable accounts and moving the funds into more tax favored vehicles like Index Funds, ETFs and Vanguard Tax managed mutual funds.

Also, I anticipate 4 more years of Obama will lead to slow growth, high taxes and low interest rates with the stock market becoming more volatile.

Eventually, Inflation hits us hard but you seem prepared for that scenario as am I with my Gold position.
 
Planning Ahead for 2013

The special tax rates on long-term gains and qualified dividends will expire on December 31, 2012. Starting 2013, the tax rate on long-term gains will be 20% (or 10% if a taxpayer is in the fifteen percent tax bracket). Also starting in 2013, the distinction between ordinary and qualified dividends will disappear, and all dividends will be subject to the ordinary tax rates.
Also beginning in 2013, capital gain income will be subject to an additional 3.8% Medicare tax.

Dividends for me in my taxable account will be subject to a 43.4% effective tax rate. Ouch!
 
BLADEMDA said:
Planning Ahead for 2013

The special tax rates on long-term gains and qualified dividends will expire on December 31, 2012. Starting 2013, the tax rate on long-term gains will be 20% (or 10% if a taxpayer is in the fifteen percent tax bracket). Also starting in 2013, the distinction between ordinary and qualified dividends will disappear, and all dividends will be subject to the ordinary tax rates.
Also beginning in 2013, capital gain income will be subject to an additional 3.8% Medicare tax.

Dividends for me in my taxable account will be subject to a 43.4% effective tax rate. Ouch!
Click to expand...

This is how we will pay for those who voted for medicare benefits for themselves. These zombies of human beings will just get you and me to pay for it. Maybe time to convert everything to gold.
 
I expect Obama will win. I expect the market to start its 4-more-years-of-Obama sellof well before the election, because I expect that writing to be on the wall well before election day. I expect that as the markets tank, I'll rebalance money into stocks.


As for Apple. They make some neat stuff. But you guys don't know anything that everybody else doesn't also know. None of these bold predictions of $900 or $1000 have included any reason to believe that all of the anticipated future growth and sales of iPhone 5.6283 revision Q or whatever isn't already factored into its current price.

I don't buy individual stocks though, so it's purely an academic discussion for me. 🙂


The only thing I've done in the last year based on my philosophical beliefs and world outlook was buy silver while it was under $30, and I even picked up some gold while it was under $1600. But not that much, in the grand scheme of things. And I still feel dirty for letting emotion and my bad vibes about the economy and our currency get me to do that much.
 
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