Q's about charting outcomes

[echod]

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In NRMP's charting outcomes data, there is a table where they correlate the number of programs applicants rank and the probability of matching. I noticed that even for the most competitive specialties, the probability of matching is almost 100% if one ranks more than 18 programs. Why are there still unmatched graduates when one simply has to rank a large number of programs to ensure matching? I guess there's no meaning in ranking a program if one isn't invited for an interview, and the number of interviews received could be the limiting factor. Is there anything that I am missing? Thanks a lot.

 

[QofQuimica]

In NRMP's charting outcomes data, there is a table where they correlate the number of programs applicants rank and the probability of matching. I noticed that even for the most competitive specialties, the probability of matching is almost 100% if one ranks more than 18 programs. Why are there still unmatched graduates when one simply has to rank a large number of programs to ensure matching? I guess there's no meaning in ranking a program if one isn't invited for an interview, and the number of interviews received could be the limiting factor. Is there anything that I am missing? Thanks a lot.

I think you're right that it's due to a limited number of interviews. I mean, it's not like everyone can score 18+ derm invites just because they apply to 30+ programs. Probably the people who do are the rock star types who would have matched even with many fewer invites.

 

[Neuronix]

I guess there's no meaning in ranking a program if one isn't invited for an interview, and the number of interviews received could be the limiting factor. Is there anything that I am missing? Thanks a lot.

Yes, number of interviews is the limiting factor. So you apply to a lot of programs in hopes that you get enough interviews. How many you need to apply to in order to get that number of interviews varies based on a lot of factors that one has little sense of going into this process. I'm applying to 30 programs, hoping to rank 12-15. Is that too many I'm applying to? Not enough? Everyone seems to have a different opinion.

Note that the line approaches 100% but rarely, if ever, hits it. I've seen some real strange cases of that <5% cohort from very decent, personable people (i.e. ranked 12+ programs, didn't match). Bad luck is a scary outcome.

 

[gstrub]

This is exactly why I am applying to 60+ programs. You can always turn down an interview.