I think all of us on the cusp of matching into surgery are both excited and slightly terrified. Attrition is highest in surgery of all fields, and you have to think that very few people start a GS residency ambivalent about their career choice. In short, the quitters and the stick-to-it'ers are basically undifferentiated at this point. How can we know for sure we're not quitters?
I've read all of the pubmed indexed articles on attrition out of surgical residencies. It's quite interesting: the consensus seems to be that you can indeed identify factors that predispose people to switch, before they even step foot in the door.
The national rate of attrition is 2% per year, or between 20-25% total (meaning 1/5 to 1/4 of the people who start a categorical surgery residency won't complete it). Most quit before PGY-3 (more in PGY-2 than in internship).
Disaggregating the stats is even more interesting.
UTSW, for example found (
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18645106) that they lost 35% of their female residents, but only 22% of their males; that age over 29 was strongly correlated with quitting; and that participation in team sports in college was correlated with success. Most interestingly, academic factors-- such as performance in med school or placement on the final rank list-- was not significantly associated with quitting. And minority residents quit less frequently than whites/Asians.
Yale (
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19178898) was even bleaker for females: 40% quit, versus 25% for men. Being married, surprisingly, was protective against quitting-- presumably because single residents lack the same support system, and might be more depressed about their inability to date or find a spouse due to time constraints.
Emory had similar, though slightly more encouraging stats: 13% of male residents quit, versus 27% of females. (
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15708164)
And KU-Wichita found that, if anything, resident attrition has worsened since the implementation of the 80-hr work week. (
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18005766)
Finally, in the editorial comments sections accompanying many of these articles, authors mentioned that "personality characteristics" were most predictive of success, though no program administered personality testing to its residents to identify specific successful traits.
So my question for all of the residents and attendings here is: I'm sure most of you have had colleagues quit. Do you feel you could pick them out early on? Do you believe that 80% of success is simply showing up? And lastly-- to match into surgery you need to have done a third year clerkship (and liked it), plus multiple months in 4th year on surgical services. The lifestyle constraints shouldn't come as a shock, right? Do you think we 4th year students *can* have an accurate picture of what our lives will be like?
(In the spirit of full disclosure I'm a little freaked out about this data because I'm both female and over 29, so by dint of logic no surgical program should have accepted me over a 25-yo ex-rugby playing dude, right?).