Radiology application/match data in past 5 years

[Cognovi]

The following are ERAS data as of 11/9 for diagnostic radiology.

NUMBER OF APPLICANTS

Grad Type	ERAS 2016	ERAS 2017	ERAS 2018	ERAS 2019	ERAS 2020	ERAS 2021
DO	151	218	238	265	274	276
IMG	557	601	552	462	478	496
MD	936	1,073	1,188	1,114	1,036	1,116
Overall	1,644	1,892	1,978	1,841	1,788	1,888

NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS SUBMITTED PER APPLICANT

Grad Type	ERAS 2016	ERAS 2017	ERAS 2018	ERAS 2019	ERAS 2020	ERAS 2021
DO	48.62	52.23	62.98	67.03	69.77	69.52
IMG	52.86	52.25	49.71	62.63	60.03	67.28
MD	44.46	47.09	48.17	53.33	55.98	56.65
Overall	47.69	49.32	50.38	57.64	59.17	61.32

NUMBER OF APPLICATIONS RECEIVED PER PROGRAM

Grad Type	ERAS 2016	ERAS 2017	ERAS 2018	ERAS 2019	ERAS 2020	ERAS 2021
DO	41.71	63.26	82.81	94.98	103.34	103.16
IMG	167.30	174.46	151.59	154.74	155.10	178.47
MD	236.44	280.72	316.19	317.70	313.47	338.06
Overall	445.44	518.43	550.59	567.42	571.91	619.14

The following are corresponding NRMP data for diagnostic radiology.

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Total positions	1168	1090	1099	1117	1146
US MD Senior applicants (who preferred this specialty + not preferred)	734+74=808	706+210=916	767+238=1005	721+206=927	712+161=873
Other applicants (who preferred this specialty + not preferred)	486+108=594	495+128=623	522+132=654	509+127=636	407+98=505
Total applicants	1402	1539	1659	1563	1378
Positions filled by US MD Seniors	754	740	760	738	710
Positions filled by other applicants	360	328	329	361	401
Positions filled total	1114	1068	1089	1099	1111
Percent positions filled	95.4	98.0	99.1	98.4	96.9
Percent positions filled by US MD seniors	64.6	67.9	69.8	66.1	61.9
Positions per US senior applicant (PPUSA)	1.45	1.19	1.09	1.20	1.31
Positions per US senior applicant who preferred this specialty (PPUSAWPTS)	1.59	1.54	1.43	1.55	1.61
Percent of US MD Senior applicants to this specialty who matched to this specialty	93.3	80.8	75.6	79.6	81.3
Match rate of US MD Seniors by preferred specialty	98.0		88.9		95.5
Match rate of US DO Seniors by preferred specialty	89.9		81.0		91.8
Match rate of US IMGs by preferred specialty	64.4		52.3		68.3
Match rate of non-US IMGs by preferred specialty	57.1		43.9		63.2

My bottom line guess based on the data is that this year will have a US MD Senior match rate in the low to mid 90s, the position fill rate will be in the high 90s, and the percentage of positions filled by US MD seniors will be in the mid to high 60s. Essentially, there have been minor fluctuations over the past 5 years. No worrisome trends, aside from the fact that applicants of all kinds continue to submit increasing numbers of applications. ERAS is getting fat for no reason other than hype about competitiveness and the need to one-up the competition in the absence of an application cap.

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[efle]

It's remarkable that DR maintains its level of competitiveness despite having 10 seats for every 6 US Seniors. I can't think of any other specialty with this pattern. For reference, specialties with a similar ratio include Peds, Psych, and PM&R.

...why? Where's the pressure coming from that pushes the median board score into the 240s, for example? Why is rads such an outlier in this regard?

 

[CavsFan2016]

It's remarkable that DR maintains its level of competitiveness despite having 10 seats for every 6 US Seniors. I can't think of any other specialty with this pattern. For reference, specialties with a similar ratio include Peds, Psych, and PM&R.

...why? Where's the pressure coming from that pushes the median board score into the 240s, for example? Why is rads such an outlier in this regard?

Am I reading this wrong? 1146 total positions, 1116 US MD applicants. Sounds like that's pretty close to 1 seat for every US senior. Where you are getting 10 seats for every 6 US seniors from?

 

[efle]

Am I reading this wrong? 1146 total positions, 1116 US MD applicants. Sounds like that's pretty close to 1 seat for every US senior. Where you are getting 10 seats for every 6 US seniors from?

Most recent charting outcomes has 712 US seniors preferring rads who applied for 1146 spots

 

[CavsFan2016]

Most recent charting outcomes has 712 US seniors preferring rads who applied for 1146 spots

So the data above is wrong?

 

[efle]

So the data above is wrong?

It's correct, he adds together the 712 preferring rads with the other 161 using it as a backup

 

[CavsFan2016]

It's correct, he adds together the 712 preferring rads with the other 161 using it as a backup

Sorry, I'm just a little confused still. 712 + 161 = 873, which is still far below the 1116 US MD applicants stated above.

 

[efle]

Sorry, I'm just a little confused still. 712 + 161 = 873, which is still far below the 1116 US MD applicants stated above.

Must be a couple hundred people who had planned to rank DR programs as backups but ended up leaving them off their ranklist? The numbers I'd look at are the number submitting a ranklist with DR at the top, so the 712 number

 

[Neopolymath]

Must be a couple hundred people who had planned to rank DR programs as backups but ended up leaving them off their ranklist? The numbers I'd look at are the number submitting a ranklist with DR at the top, so the 712 number

Ophtho and uro applicants who end up matching their preferred specialty?

 

[Cognovi]

Must be a couple hundred people who had planned to rank DR programs as backups but ended up leaving them off their ranklist? The numbers I'd look at are the number submitting a ranklist with DR at the top, so the 712 number

There are multiple possible reasons to account for the difference between the ERAS number of MD applicants to DR (1036 in 2020) and the NRMP number of US MD Senior applicants who ranked DR (873 in 2020, including those who had DR as only choice, first choice, and not first choice).

First, the ERAS number includes MD grads: MDs who have already graduated previously and are no longer enrolled in medical school. Per NRMP in 2020, there were 37 such MD Grads who ranked a PGY-2 DR program.

Second, the ERAS number may include

• noncompetitive applicants: applied but did not receive any DR interviews
• late deciders and backup appliers:
  • applied but withdrew or turned down interviews in favor of another specialty
  • applied and interviewed but did not rank any DR programs in favor of another specialty
  • applied and interviewed but matched to urology or ophthalmology and then had to withdraw from the NRMP

I for one have always been surprised at the size of the discrepancy as well as the number of people ERAS says cross-apply to different specialties. In ERAS 2019, out of 1628 MD or DO DR applicants, this was the number that also applied to other specialties:

• internal medicine categorical: 350 (21%)
• anesthesiology: 234
• family medicine: 155
• radiation oncology: 153
• dermatology: 144
• neurology: 114
• general surgery categorical: 113
• orthopedics: 111
• emergency medicine: 100
• physical medicine/rehab: 97
• pathology: 64
• psychiatry: 56
• obgyn: 34
• otolaryngology: 18
• preventive medicine: 18
• nuclear medicine: 10 (out of 11 nucs applicants)

I imagine the rate of cross-specialty application is lower for US MDs but these numbers are just crazy high to begin with, including more than one-third of non-IMG rad onc applicants also applying to radiology. https://www.aamc.org/media/8346/download