Rank Orderlist...a percentages game?

[chillindrdude]

dunno if anyone has the answer but...

does anyone know the percent probabilities about the rank list? for example, what is the percentage of med students getting their 1st choice? 2nd choice? etc? i would think, obviously, that this percentage decreases considerable as the rank number increases.

another question, what is percentage of medical students matching at one of their programs in their top 5? i would think close to 90%....what about matching at a program in the top 3?

my fiancee is applying to law school while i'm applying to gas/prelim programs. i want to stay in NYC and she wants to be at NYU or Columbia. but she's gotten into top-tier law schools at other cities i've applied to. likewise, i've gotten interviews at other top-tier programs in those same cities. she has yet to hear back from NYU or Columbia. And she doesn't plan on hearing back from NYU until April!!! so needless to say, i'm trying to hedge my bets. because if she does not get into NYC schools then NYC programs will be pushed down my rank list.

any inference, opinions, heresay, facts about rank order percentages would be appreciated.

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[doc05]

percentages work for populations, but you can't play the percentages if you're an individual, since there are so many variables out there:
where did you apply? which specialty? caliber of programs? who wrote your letters? personal connections to the programs? how did your interviews go? number of spots/program is also very imporant.

offhand, for anesthesia, I suspect that if you rank 3 programs, your chances are 50-80%; for 5 programs, you have a 70-90% chance of matching.

If you do match in NY, I suggest she contact columbia/nyu and tell them that she is very interested in being in nyc. if she's gotten into other top schools (hls, etc), she can always play that card ("I got into harvard but really want to be in ny")

 

[rhinosp_33]

i'm not sure about the actual percentages of gettin ones top 3/top 5..


but, if you want to really "hedge" your bet, then you should not rank more than one nyc program in your top 3. obviously if the top 2/3 of your rank list is nyc, then you are hedging towards nyc, which may not be sound if your financee hasnt gotten into nyu or columbia by 2/26th.

 

[m4kim]

I heard that about 85% get their first 3 choices. about 90% get top 4. Apparently no matter how many you rank, the highest percentage of match you can get is 95%... so you can rank 30 or a 100... match percentage is 95% for both.