Reality is in the Numbers!

[Cold Front]

If any dental student or pre-dent is wondering about the road ahead based on Today’s Numbers (not in 5+ years):

Average Dental School Debt: $400k (not including specialization)
Dentistry is the #1 Job in America for Debt - Student Loan Planner

Average General Dentist Annual Income: $200k
ADA Health Policy Institute FAQ – Dentist Income and Gross Billings

Average New House: $375k
US Average Sales Price for New Houses Sold

Average New Car: $36k
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...t-is-36000-and-loan-delinquencies-are-up/amp/

Average General Private Practice Annual Production: $750k
ADA Health Policy Institute FAQ – Dentist Income and Gross Billings

Average General Practice Value: 70% of Annual Production (70% of $750k = $525k)
https://www.dentistryiq.com/article...ide-to-dental-practice-valuation-methods.html

---

Members don't see this ad.

 

[Likkriue]

So gotta go about.... 1 million in the hole just to make 200k a year?
If I didn’t get into my instate school I honestly would’ve never went to dental school.

 

[Cold Front]

Almost all future dentists will be spending “above” these “average” numbers “without interest rates” factored in.

 

[AppalachianDentalBoy]

If this is the case why is it that the lowest earning dentist I know makes $250K? He is five years into practice as well not 20 so not established. When talking about averages the numbers have seemed low to every GP I have spoken to.

 

[BasicG]

If this is the case why is it that the lowest earning dentist I know makes $250K? He is five years into practice as well not 20 so not established. When talking about averages the numbers have seemed low to every GP I have spoken to.

Pretty sure it's because of supply and demand. I live in South Dakota and dentists/specialists are killing it here because there's no dental school in the state

 

[Cold Front]

If this is the case why is it that the lowest earning dentist I know makes $250K? He is five years into practice as well not 20 so not established. When talking about averages the numbers have seemed low to every GP I have spoken to.

Most dentists live in a big city or town, therefore more competition and fewer patients and procedures to go around than rural or small town dentists. Also, many female dentists work part time, many older dentists work part time, many are out of school just few years, and some dentists are just not cut for doing high volume or big case dentistry due to lack of CE training or picky about the insurances they accept (self pay versus Medicaid). So “average” means a lot of dentists are making more than $200k a year, but a lot are also making less. If you are still in dental school or applying to dental school, it’s better and safer to understand where these things stand as a reference.

 

[Cold Front]

My goal is to work hard when I graduate to achieve that average 200k and I’ll be perfectly happy with that. I go to a state school which helps.

With experience and location, $200k is doable few years out of school. For location, a lot of it depends on if you are single versus married. A working spouse can’t just follow you anywhere, and you may end up moving where he or she can get a job and you may end up making less than $200k a year as a result, no matter how experienced you may be. A lot of dentists are in this position and compromise for the spouse’s career and income over theirs, and end up in the sub-200k a year income.

 

[2TH MVR]

The above average income dentists are doing well as a result of many variables. Good location with less saturation. Above average business skills. Good people skills. LOW DS debt. Own or bought the RIGHT private practice. Etc. Etc. The point is that earning, or shall I say ..... BUYING a DDS/DMD does not automatically mean success for everyone. A DDS/DMD does not automatically overcome high DS debt, poor location, etc. etc. High DS debt + saturated, urban area + low paying Corp job = struggling dental career. You'll never get ahead.

Oh you might say ... "I have plenty of time to pay my debt". Lets see. Graduate DS at age 25-27. 20 plus solid yrs of trying to get ahead. Before you know it ... you're in your 50's. It goes fast. Life is not just paying off your DS debt. There are so many expenses related to LIFE.

I am 56. I've done reasonably well over my career. But the expenses never stop. Trust me. I still have to work hard.
So for you predents, dents that attend those expensive DS .... saying that you will work hard and live like a student for a number of years to pay your debt. You're forgetting about the OTHER life expenses that always pops up.

Yes .. dentistry is a wonderful career, but only under the right conditions.

 

[321931]

The biggest problem with those numbers are they are numbers for today.

The number one thing that will change your dental career is Medicare for All. There is more and more traction for the next generation to vote in subsidized healthcare on a single payer level.

There have been many big changes in the past century, civil rights, voting, whatever. Do not be surprised in 30 years we look back and say wow can you believe we had people going bankrupt and paying 10000 for a stomach ache at emergency room? Today 2050 I can go to the er for 10$ because it’s subsidized.

What’s the problem with all this? Your salary will be cut in half if this happens.

Look towards the future instead of the past. The older dentists, who I respect, lived in a time where insurance companies came to their office and begged him to sign up. Today we beg insurance companies to sign us up. Times have changed and will continue to change.

If nothing of this sort plays out, then we’ll dentistry is a damn good field that I still enjoy. But my bet is that things will eventually change.

 

[allantois]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...ending-student-loan-debt-forgiveness-program/

Thought this might be relevant

 

[AppalachianDentalBoy]

Pretty sure it's because of supply and demand. I live in South Dakota and dentists/specialists are killing it here because there's no dental school in the state

Must be. The further away from the city the higher the income of the dentists I’ve spoken to. The 250 comes from a guy in a city of 200,000 people. The dentists I’ve spoken to in towns <25,000 are all running FFS/OON practices and rolling in it.

 

[predent2151]

These statistics of general dentist salaries are self reported. Practice owners may pay themselves 100k but their revenue of their practice may be 300k so they take home 400k. Also a lot of these numbers are associate incomes. Take these averages with a grain of salt.

 

[Cthuluhoop]

That $200k figure should be the average for owner dentists. BLS quotes the average dentist's salary at $150k.

 

[Likkriue]

These statistics of general dentist salaries are self reported. Practice owners may pay themselves 100k but their revenue of their practice may be 300k so they take home 400k. Also a lot of these numbers are associate incomes. Take these averages with a grain of salt.

it says billings and production not “self reported” income. And these are all numbers generated in private practice not associating. On what planet do you think associates make 200k a year?

 

[Cold Front]

Speaking of change, in my opinion, the biggest change that will happen to dentistry more than Medicare is DSO’s. 1 in 30 new dentists joined DSO’s 20 years ago, today it’s closer to 1 in 4, and is expected to be 1 in 2 in 10 years. That’s a big impact in the dental workforce. DSO’s are consolidating the profession with the unintended help from schools that charge high tuition. DSO’s already sit in state dental boards (my former classmate works for a DSO and sits in Texas dental board), they also have big influence in negotiating their overhead expenses... from supplies to labs and real estate, and they are heavily funded by private equity. This trend will continue at an alarming rate, that in 10-30 years, we will look back and consider today’s dentists as golden years, just like we consider the 90’s dentists as the golden years of dentistry.

Another big change in the future is the dental therapists becoming more main stream. 10 years ago, there were only 2 states that approved dental therapists to do the “bread and butter” dentistry, today - it’s 8 states, and at least dozen more states seriously considering mid-level provider legislations. So in 10-30 years, all fillings will be done by dental therapists at an office near you. DSO’s will be the biggest benefactors of therapists, they can rely less and cut back on the revolving door for dentists.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kr...o-adopt-dental-therapists-programs/1839855412

 

[2TH MVR]

That $200k figure should be the average for owner dentists. BLS quotes the average dentist's salary at $150k.

It's complicated to see a true owner's salary. Not so with associates or Corp employee.

Practice ownership:
- C-Corp entity: health insurance premiums are a business write-off. Adds to salary.
- I paid all my malpractice, personal disability premiums through the office. Adds to salary.
- I leased cars through my office. 75% business use. 25% personal use. Adds to salary.
- all maintenance, insurance of leased cars written off. Adds to salary
- toilet paper, light bulbs, cleaning supplies, computer stuff, office supplies, stamps, furniture, tools, etc. etc. etc. expensed through office .... but "could be used personally". Not saying it was. . Mostly hypothetical for you IRS auditors. . Adds to salary.
- marketing items for referral offices: I had season tickets for baseball, hockey. Golf outtings. Adds to salary.
- Meals and Entertainment business expensing. 50%. Adds to salary.
You get what I'm saying. With practice ownership ... the reported salary is lower than actual salary.

But ...........
Principal portion of practice loans is PERSONAL. This subtracts from your salary and is taxed on a personal level. I believe this is the only negative regarding business expense not being business write off.

 

[P7898]

it says billings and production not “self reported” income. And these are all numbers generated in private practice not associating. On what planet do you think associates make 200k a year?

Move to the South and go where needed.

 

[setdoc7]

Why would anyone want to report their salary? Does not make sense to me. Each time the ADA sends me this survey it is either deleted or shredded. Those new grads going for loan forgiveness are definitely earning less, but are making it up in student loan payments, which may not necessarily be reported as income.

 

[Cold Front]

Why would anyone want to report their salary? Does not make sense to me. Each time the ADA sends me this survey it is either deleted or shredded. Those new grads going for loan forgiveness are definitely earning less, but are making it up in student loan payments, which may not necessarily be reported as income.

I live in a big city and had 7 associates in the past and currently have 2 associates working for me. I also know dozen other general dentists who have practices in big cities in different states, who also have associates. The $200k number as an average number may seem a low-ball and under-reported by general dentists, but in my personal experience and people I know - it’s a reliable number for most young (25-35 yrs old) urban associate dentists. Like I said in a previous post, majority of dentists live in urban area/city and willing to get paid under their potential as an associate. The trade off is - better social life and close to everything they want. I personally don’t know associates in rural areas, but I would not be surprised if they averaged $350k+ a year in income. For every 1 dentist who lives in rural or small town, you have 6-8 who live in a city. It’s not just the income, but location, hours you work, age, and lifestyle, and gender that goes into the “average” numbers.

 

[Cthuluhoop]

I live in a big city and had 7 associates in the past and currently have 2 associates working for me. I also know dozen other general dentists who have practices in big cities in different states, who also have associates. The $200k number as an average number may seem a low-ball and under-reported by general dentists, but in my personal experience and people I know - it’s a reliable number for most young (25-35 yrs old) urban associate dentists. Like I said in a previous post, majority of dentists live in urban area/city and willing to get paid under their potential as an associate. The trade off is - better social life and close to everything they want. I personally don’t know associates in rural areas, but I would not be surprised if they averaged $350k+ a year in income. For every 1 dentist who lives in rural or small town, you have 6-8 who live in a city. It’s not just the income, but location, hours you work, age, and lifestyle, and gender that goes into the “average” numbers.

What would you quote as an average for the owners then, not the associates, in these big cities Cold Front?

In my area there are certain intersections with 5-8 offices on them. I can't imagine that owner dentists are rolling in money with that much saturation and competition.

 

[Cold Front]

What would you quote as an average for the owners then, not the associates, in these big cities Cold Front?

In my area there are certain intersections with 5-8 offices on them. I can't imagine that owner dentists are rolling in money with that much saturation and competition.

Owner general dentists in urban areas income depends on if they work alone without a hygienist, have 1 hygienist or multiple, have 1 associate dentist or more, and many other factors that can make their overhead higher or lower, and the insurances they accept and number of days they work, how much competition is on their street or in their building, and so on. Again, we have to go by “averages” to find a number that pulls all those data together. The most recent number number I came across for urban owner dentist is $400k. This is an average number, some are making seven figures and have multiple associates, others work 3 days a week and take it easy and make $200k a year - I know one actually.

 

[321931]

My rule of thumb on income as an owner versus associate is...

Associate upper limits tends to be 200k. Average 150k.

Owner can make anywhere from 1 mil to -100k to bankruptcy.

You don't go into dentistry to be an associate. If you did, you would be better off as a Medical Doctor W2 Salary with Benefits, Time Off, and 401k. I would never go into dentistry if the only option was to associate. Never.

 

[cl24uw06]

I am currently seeking new or recent graduates to join our team in Washington State were our average general dentist makes over 300k per year. I started my first practice along with a partner just over 7 years ago and have developed proven systems to generate massive new patient flow while keeping the office overhead below 40%. Our first year we collected over 1.2 million with a 42% overhead and we are now collecting just shy of 3 million with a 35% overhead still with just two doctors on an individual doctor 3 day work week at the original office. I would love to train a highly motivated go getter in all things necessary for success. Partnership opportunities start at 400k.

 

[REACHOn]

I am currently seeking new or recent graduates to join our team in Washington State were our average general dentist makes over 300k per year. I started my first practice along with a partner just over 7 years ago and have developed proven systems to generate massive new patient flow while keeping the office overhead below 40%. Our first year we collected over 1.2 million with a 42% overhead and we are now collecting just shy of 3 million with a 35% overhead still with just two doctors on an individual doctor 3 day work week at the original office. I would love to train a highly motivated go getter in all things necessary for success. Partnership opportunities start at 400k.

Sign me up once I get through Dschool in 4 years!!! I hope after I graduate with 400-500k debt, I will be able to find some good opportunities. Coming from a low-income family.. I guess living frugally will have to be extended Work hard and be lucky!

 

[Elizabeth.B]

Approx howmuch will they spend on it?

 

[ToothJockey]

So dentistry is only worth it if you own. How many dentists in the future will even get the opportunity to own? 50%? 25%? Less than that?

Private equity groups are gobbling up dental practices at a pretty high rate. Are most (75%+) dentists just going to end up working for corporate for the rest of their lives? Dead end job, not much professional growth, no fulfillment from community involvement. Doesn't seem that great to be honest.

 

[ElCubanito]

So dentistry is only worth it if you own. How many dentists in the future will even get the opportunity to own? 50%? 25%? Less than that?

Private equity groups are gobbling up dental practices at a pretty high rate. Are most (75%+) dentists just going to end up working for corporate for the rest of their lives? Dead end job, not much professional growth, no fulfillment from community involvement. Doesn't seem that great to be honest.

There are plenty of opportunities to own....just not many dentists have the drive and commitment to own. Its a lot of work, headaches.....after money stops being a priority so does practice "ownership". Ownership because the practice ends up owning YOU .

 

[ToothJockey]

There are plenty of opportunities to own....just not many dentists have the drive and commitment to own. Its a lot of work, headaches.....after money stops being a priority so does practice "ownership". Ownership because the practice ends up owning YOU .

That makes sense. But isn't ownership more rewarding as well, even if we forget about the money. Establishing yourself in a community and doing good work, building a practice and making a name for yourself. At the end of your career you can look at your practice as your lifes work. I'm not sure that same satisfaction would exist in corp, but I wouldn't know.

 

[2TH MVR]

That makes sense. But isn't ownership more rewarding as well, even if we forget about the money. Establishing yourself in a community and doing good work, building a practice and making a name for yourself. At the end of your career you can look at your practice as your lifes work. I'm not sure that same satisfaction would exist in corp, but I wouldn't know.

The reason most people chose dentistry over medicine is the opportunity to be a practice owner. There is great pride in practice ownership. It should be the number one goal for every new dentist to own their practice. Practice ownership gives you the best opportunity to build wealth and equity. But this will come with a price. You will spend countless hours managing all the endless tasks associated with running a small business. When times are good .... Things are very good. When things are bad (recession, etc) things can get very bad. There is no upside to working Corp. But as you get older and desire less stress, less hassle, less money .... A Corp job is perfect. Better than working 5 days a week teaching in a DS earning very little. I work Corp now. I work as much as I want. I can earn as much as I want. Yes .... Maybe easier for a specialist.
So. Always strive for practice ownership early on. This will give you options during later stages in your life.

 

[Cold Front]

Ownership because the practice ends up owning YOU .

It’s a generational thing. Millennials “don’t bet on themselves” as much as their parents did. Practice ownership is hard work and the reward can take time. It’s not for everyone.

 

[321931]

So dentistry is only worth it if you own. How many dentists in the future will even get the opportunity to own? 50%? 25%? Less than that?

Private equity groups are gobbling up dental practices at a pretty high rate. Are most (75%+) dentists just going to end up working for corporate for the rest of their lives? Dead end job, not much professional growth, no fulfillment from community involvement. Doesn't seem that great to be honest.

I wouldn't be so doom and gloom about it. There will always be room for private practice. It's up to YOU to choose what you want to do. There more then enough practices to go around- but it won't up in your lap without YOU working for it.

Dead end job? I wouldn't say so. Self employed, never lose your job to automation, insulated from the economy (recession), can open multiple practices, be absentee owner, do whatever you want. It's not dead end. I don't think people understand or value that you will always have a job.

Professional growth? I mean if you want to be a surgeon and go to conferences and CE's and work 80 hours a week and have zero time for your kids and family...thats nice. If you want to work at a corporate tech job and have luncheons, meetings, and climb up the corporate ladder sucking up and backstabbing people...thats nice. I prefer 32 hour work weeks and having time for my family, kids, self, and "enjoying" what life has to offer. If you want to step it up a notch and grow professionally- then there's plenty of OPTIONAL CE that you can take to market and grow yourself. You can easily open up more days, take on more offices, and grow to work 80 hours a week.

Fulfillment? I find fulfillment by having a 3 day weekend, biking, hiking, swimming, traveling, and a cherry on top is I get to help patients take care of their dentistry. Fulfillment for other people might be different. You cannot paint a broad stroke that states there is no fulfillment. That is subjective and different for everyone.

32 hours a week, zero on call time, self employed, insulated from recession, multiple career option paths to take. I quite frankly love dentistry.

Regardless, if you do see the doom and gloom in dentistry- why not study for the MCAT and pursue medicine instead?

 

[ToothJockey]

Dead end job? I wouldn't say so. Self employed, never lose your job to automation, insulated from the economy (recession), can open multiple practices, be absentee owner, do whatever you want. It's not dead end. I don't think people understand or value that you will always have a job.

I think you took my comment all wrong. When I was saying "dead end job, not much professional growth, no fulfillment from community involvement" I was talking about corp jobs not practice ownership. With practice ownership you can actually grow into something bigger depending on your ambition/vision. If you stay in corp forever you will have a limit to what you can achieve. Is it not fair to call it a dead end job at a corp? I can understand if you are retiring or starting out corp definitely makes sense, but if you do it your entire career it doesn't seem as fulfilling. Maybe I have it all wrong since I've never shadowed at a corp so I have no clue what goes on there. I like dentistry as well or else I wouldn't be taking the DAT.

Medicine is a decent gig. Lower debt, higher starting salary, but it seems there's lots of paperwork and BS work. I might take the MCAT as well after taking the DAT, just to keep my options open if anything.
For me: Dental Specialist/Owner Dentist>>Medical Specialist>>>>FM/IM>Corp or associate dentist
Becoming a dental specialist is more difficult than becoming a medical specialist, and becoming an owner dentist might also be more difficult in the future.
I have confidence in my academic abilities, that's something I can control. However I cannot control the market or what happens with the corporate takeover. I've noticed that dentistry has never bounced back from the recession back in the 2000's, and it's likely it never will which is what concerns me.

 

[pubhealthdent]

If any dental student or pre-dent is wondering about the road ahead based on Today’s Numbers (not in 5+ years):

Average Dental School Debt: $400k (not including specialization)
Dentistry is the #1 Job in America for Debt - Student Loan Planner

Average General Dentist Annual Income: $200k
ADA Health Policy Institute FAQ – Dentist Income and Gross Billings

Average New House: $375k
US Average Sales Price for New Houses Sold

Average New Car: $36k
Average New Vehicle Cost is $36,000+ And Loan Delinquencies Are Up

Average General Private Practice Annual Production: $750k
ADA Health Policy Institute FAQ – Dentist Income and Gross Billings

Average General Practice Value: 70% of Annual Production (70% of $750k = $525k)
A dentist’s practical guide to dental practice valuation methods

These numbers can all vary so much depending on where you live though and what kind of life you want. Rural dentists make more and typically have a lower cost of living and inversely so for urban dentists. Most new grads don't need $400k house or a $40k car. It's all about living within your means. I bought a car 6 months out ($20k - paid half down right away and other half paid within a year) and just bought a house ($120k). Could I have splurged and gotten a nicer car or a newer house? Sure. But realistically, for me it's more important to still be able to sock some money away for retirement and pay down student loans. Even if it means I'm living like someone making a fraction of what I do for a few more years.

 

[Cold Front]

These numbers can all vary so much depending on where you live though and what kind of life you want. Rural dentists make more and typically have a lower cost of living and inversely so for urban dentists. Most new grads don't need $400k house or a $40k car. It's all about living within your means. I bought a car 6 months out ($20k - paid half down right away and other half paid within a year) and just bought a house ($120k). Could I have splurged and gotten a nicer car or a newer house? Sure. But realistically, for me it's more important to still be able to sock some money away for retirement and pay down student loans. Even if it means I'm living like someone making a fraction of what I do for a few more years.

Well, that’s how it should be done. But the “average” dentist is spending way more than you, on a house and a car. Heck, the average house in the US has gone up since my original post. I’m not sure what kind of house you bought for $120k, but that’s not even half the median home listing price in the country.

 

[pubhealthdent]

Well, that’s how it should be done. But the “average” dentist is spending way more than you, on a house and a car. Heck, the average house in the US has gone up since my original post. I’m not sure what kind of house you bought for $120k, but that’s not even half the median home listing price in the country.

3 bed, 2 bath home built in the 70's. But it's small town and rural. And I know how to negotiate

 

[321931]

Well, that’s how it should be done. But the “average” dentist is spending way more than you, on a house and a car. Heck, the average house in the US has gone up since my original post. I’m not sure what kind of house you bought for $120k, but that’s not even half the median home listing price in the country.

Kudos to pubhealthdent for doing it the right way.

It's to bad that the majority of new grads decide to hit the big cities (2k rent), 200k downpayment for a 700-1mil starter home- which amounts to a 3000 mortgage, (in some areas like Bay Area- it's a dump starter home), and on top of all that buy a luxury car. Then they post their wins on instagram...when in reality, if there is an economic downturn (and yes there will be another recession even though pundits say "this time is different"), and or their practice hits a slump- they will sweat alot.

 

[Cold Front]

3 bed, 2 bath home built in the 70's. But it's small town and rural. And I know how to negotiate

That explains. But then again, all new grads and young people in general are riding on the urbanization wave. They flock to cities to be close to their friends and families and enjoy that more social life. The more money you make, the more likely you will move to a big city, and this trend will continue for future generations.

 

[pubhealthdent]

That explains. But then again, all new grads and young people in general are riding on the urbanization wave. They flock to cities to be close to their friends and families and enjoy that more social life. The more money you make, the more likely you will move to a big city, and this trend will continue for future generations.

Not all young people. I'm 27

But I'll let my millenial cohorts make less and pay less in the big city

 

[Cold Front]

Kudos to pubhealthdent for doing it the right way.

It's to bad that the majority of new grads decide to hit the big cities (2k rent), 200k downpayment for a 700-1mil starter home- which amounts to a 3000 mortgage, (in some areas like Bay Area- it's a dump starter home), and on top of all that buy a luxury car. Then they post their wins on instagram...when in reality, if there is an economic downturn (and yes there will be another recession even though pundits say "this time is different"), and or their practice hits a slump- they will sweat alot.

There are physician and dentist mortgage loan programs by most big banks with 0% down up to $1M homes. So, no need to come up with $200k down for that. You just need a diploma and a pulse (and a reasonable credit) and those new grads “can” get that dream house. The next recession will not be like the housing bubble/subprime mortgage crisis of 2008, but more one of extreme debt crisis - particularly corporate debt that was created by low interest rates and less regulations, by central banks and governments around the world.

 

[Cold Front]

Not all young people. I'm 27

But I'll let my millenial cohorts make less and pay less in the big city

I was referring to millennials. 23-38 years old group.

 

[pubhealthdent]

I was referring to millennials. 23-38 years old group.

Right. I am a millennial, one of the few that is willing to work rural where I can make more money and have a lower cost of living.

 

[ToothJockey]

There are physician and dentist mortgage loan programs by most big banks with 0% down up to $1M homes.

Aren't the interest rates on those crazy high though?

 

[321931]

There are physician and dentist mortgage loan programs by most big banks with 0% down up to $1M homes. So, no need to come up with $200k down for that. You just need a diploma and a pulse (and a reasonable credit) and those new grads “can” get that dream house. The next recession will not be like the housing bubble/subprime mortgage crisis of 2008, but more one of extreme debt crisis - particularly corporate debt that was created by low interest rates and less regulations, by central banks and governments around the world.

I can agree with you on that. Hey you know your economics pretty well.

And I agree that if the bubble does pop... it’s going to be worse then 2008. It will literally be the Great Depression.

 

[Cold Front]

Right. I am a millennial, one of the few that is willing to work rural where I can make more money and have a lower cost of living.

Millennials are big on social media; Instagram particularly - where almost all the pictures are taken in an urban setting. They really have a different outlook to life than older generations. I read somewhere, most Americans consider a $2M net worth to be the entry to being “rich”. Majority of young people surveyed in that poll said that their view of being rich also involved more of a lifestyle than just the money. So the takeaway from this poll was - young people don’t want to live rural, because that’s against their view of being successful - at least in terms of the lifestyle. So $2M and living rural is no bueno.

By the way, the “real rich” threshold is having $25M net worth.

 

[Cold Front]

Aren't the interest rates on those crazy high though?

Absolutely. The government itself pays about $400 Billion in interest a year, and that cost is expected to grow around $7 Trillion over the next decade.

If you haven’t heard, our president wakes up almost every day attacking the Feds to lower the interest rates - because he believes the lower rates will help businesses grow and boost the economy. The reality is, when you lower rates, banks work with more borrowers/more outstanding debt; from credit cards to corporate debt. When the economy slows down/recession, companies fire people > unemployment goes up > unemployed people start defaulting on their loans > the financial industry takes a hit > lenders become more restrictive > everything comes to a screeching halt.

They don’t teach this stuff in dental school, because we are told that dentistry is recession proof. But with over leveraged DSO’s having a growing hand in the dental workforce, they heavily rely on revenues from financial institutions (health financing programs like care credit), and if that takes a hit due to more patients getting denied because they are unemployed - the DSO’s will adjust their overhead downwards - starting with payroll/employees(dentists). This is my theory, but let’s hope I’m wrong,

 

[ToothJockey]

Absolutely. The government itself pays about $400 Billion in interest a year, and that cost is expected to grow around $7 Trillion over the next decade.

If you haven’t heard, our president wakes up almost every day attacking the Feds to lower the interest rates - because he believes the lower rates will help businesses grow and boost the economy. The reality is, when you lower rates, banks work with more borrowers/more outstanding debt; from credit cards to corporate debt. When the economy slows down/recession, companies fire people > unemployment goes up > unemployed people start defaulting on their loans > the financial industry takes a hit > lenders become more restrictive > everything comes to a screeching halt.

They don’t teach this stuff in dental school, because we are told that dentistry is recession proof. But with over leveraged DSO’s having a growing hand in the dental workforce, they heavily rely on revenues from financial institutions (health financing programs like care credit), and if that takes a hit due to more patients getting denied because they are unemployed - the DSO’s will adjust their overhead downwards - starting with payroll/employees(dentists). This is my theory, but let’s hope I’m wrong,

That makes a lot of sense. If most dentists are employees then dentistry won't be much different from any other employed job. If demand is lowered due to a recession then a bunch of dentists will get the axe. I actually read some papers that state dental expenditures/demand for dental work aren't going up as fast as # of dentists entering the workforce.

It would be nice if some of the dental schools closed down (after I get in of course). Way too much supply, not enough demand and the gap is growing.

 

[2TH MVR]

And I agree that if the bubble does pop... it’s going to be worse then 2008. It will literally be the Great Depression.

pic

Nah. 2008 was really bad. People lost their homes due to the predatory mortgage lending and the greedy financial packaging of mortgages to make more money. Losing your home is a once in a lifetime serious situation. The home is EVERYTHING to most people. The 2008 recession was serious compared to what may happen in 2020-22. I've been through a few recessions. Most are a few years of correction. Can't have a bull market forever without a correction. Business goes up and down. The only thing I fear is the future political policies regarding Medicare for All. Govt paying off all the student loans. Etc. Etc. No such thing as a free lunch. Many of us (those that behaved financially responsible) will be footing that bill.

 

[321931]

pic

Nah. 2008 was really bad. People lost their homes due to the predatory mortgage lending and the greedy financial packaging of mortgages to make more money. Losing your home is a once in a lifetime serious situation. The home is EVERYTHING to most people. The 2008 recession was serious compared to what may happen in 2020-22. I've been through a few recessions. Most are a few years of correction. Can't have a bull market forever without a correction. Business goes up and down. The only thing I fear is the future political policies regarding Medicare for All. Govt paying off all the student loans. Etc. Etc. No such thing as a free lunch. Many of us (those that behaved financially responsible) will be footing that bill.

how did your practice do during 2001-2003 and how was it compared to 2008-2009?

 

[Cold Front]

Nah. 2008 was really bad. People lost their homes due to the predatory mortgage lending and the greedy financial packaging of mortgages to make more money. Losing your home is a once in a lifetime serious situation. The home is EVERYTHING to most people. The 2008 recession was serious compared to what may happen in 2020-22. I've been through a few recessions. Most are a few years of correction. Can't have a bull market forever without a correction. Business goes up and down. The only thing I fear is the future political policies regarding Medicare for All. Govt paying off all the student loans. Etc. Etc. No such thing as a free lunch. Many of us (those that behaved financially responsible) will be footing that bill.

That’s always the case. The tax payers/the government will ALWAYS bail out companies, agencies, even students if they are “too big to fail”.

The next recession will happen in 12-18 months. We have already seen the inverted yield curve in treasury, and the global slowdown have started to happen. We are just waiting for the next shoe to drop; unemployment going up and/or consumer spending going down. Either way, it’s not a matter of if, but when. I think we will know after the next few months job numbers (already down an average of about 100k a month from last year), the next GDP numbers (already down from 3%+ to 2% so far, and projected to be in the 1% range for the next couple of quarters), and most importantly, how the Feds handle these downward trends soon. The Feds typically have a 5-6% rate cushion when recession happens, but now they only have 2%, maybe less when they cut again couple of more times before the year ends. So in a nutshell, the dark clouds are already here for the economy - just a matter of how bad the weather system will get. In my estimation, with the global slowdown (specially in Europe - Brexit, trade wars, and other headwinds) and the $15 trillion global bonds currently in a negative yield... we will see a relatively big recession, but no where close to 2008. All happening during an election season.

 

[TanMan]

pic

Nah. 2008 was really bad. People lost their homes due to the predatory mortgage lending and the greedy financial packaging of mortgages to make more money. Losing your home is a once in a lifetime serious situation. The home is EVERYTHING to most people. The 2008 recession was serious compared to what may happen in 2020-22. I've been through a few recessions. Most are a few years of correction. Can't have a bull market forever without a correction. Business goes up and down. The only thing I fear is the future political policies regarding Medicare for All. Govt paying off all the student loans. Etc. Etc. No such thing as a free lunch. Many of us (those that behaved financially responsible) will be footing that bill.

My family lost everything in the early 90's due to the recession and I'm sure someone benefitted from our loss. I like to think that there's always a flipside to everything. My recommendation is to hoard cash and cash equivalents, open up as much of your credit lines as possible if you have assets to leverage and wait for the economy to start collapsing. Of course, this assumption is that the US dollar retains its value. If you are very liquid, you have will more power and leverage to snap up assets for pennies on the dollar (hopefully).

Two if's:

If Medicare for All is instituted, there has to be someone that benefits. Government spending will definitely increase, taxation will increase to pay for medicare for all, the big question is then, what industries and companies will benefit from this increased spending? Once you answer that, you can hedge your bets on those industries and companies and expatriate your gains into a less taxable form or state.

If Medicare for All causes a reduction in quality of care and longer wait times, then can a secondary/tertiary black market form for a "higher quality alternative/lower wait time"? I think we see this already with organ transplantation, just expand it to all facets of care. Those that have money are not going to wait on some public list. They'll go to the black market in Moldova (I know they are well known for cheap kidney transplants) or some other country where there are little/no restrictions on paying for organs. I'm all for free market, because market inefficients create deficiencies in supply (health care, organs, or whatever), but because human life is considered sacred and a right, then in many instances, policies are created not for profit, but for preservation of life. This is why I'm totally against making dentistry something more than what it is right now. If people advocate for making dentistry required instead of elective, then the government will be pressured to intervene because it's perceived as a necessity rather than an elective procedure.