Reapplicant due to growing GPA

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BMRMike

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Working on someone's application and they want to apply without a gap year. EC wise they are very strong, (substitute teaching, high level volunteering, shadowing, research assistant with no pubs). A non-traditional hispanic woman with 10 year gap (one year of college with horrible grades, 8 years later returns and is on second year of 4.0 gpa). If they apply for class of 2024 they are looking at a 4.0 sGPA 3.05 cGPA and yet to be determined MCAT (this doesn't mean much but I am assuming it will be a good score).

The big question is that due to the bad first year, if she takes a gap year she is looking at applying with everything the same but a ~3.4 cGPA. She wants to get in MD (wants to do derm) and I wonder if A) She stands a chance applying next year B) If she chooses to apply for class of 2024, doesn't get any acceptance, will it be a mark against her when she applies for 2025?

(FYI she is NOT a reapplicant at this time, she may be a re-applicant if she applies in 2019, does not get in, and reapplies in 2020)
 
What is your GPA without the first bad year?
Since coming back to school it is 4.0 cGPA and 4.0 sGPA. Currently on track to easily finish this semester with another set of 4.0s and all that's left is next semester which I will assume is going to go 4.0 as well (only taking 3 classes to give space to study for MCAT, still doing 17 units). And it's not me.

And I understand one strong app is best. However there is one reason (other than just one extra year of being a doctor and not wasting time) is that I just got accepted to medical school, if she can get in for 2024 then I can take a research year and do the couples match. If she takes a gap year then things get more complicated.
 
To clarify she is not applying as a 3.8 student, if she applies without a gap year her overall (counting her bad start) is 3.05, with t a gap year she is around 3.4 (assuming she keeps up her grades up which she has so far done fairly easily all while working full time plus volunteering and research)
 
her being a hispanic woman will also dramatically increase her chances. Make sure to look at hispanic statistics when comparing her chances.
 
https://www.aamc.org/download/321512/data/factstablea24-1.pdf

I just remember info like this detailing hispanic, latino, and hispanic origin acceptance rates. Seems like good odds to me. Not sure how they designated hispanic in the chart
The data doesn't break down those who were admitted to the four PR schools (who are at the lower end for the MCAT and GPAs), nor does it tell the % of Hispanic students are of Mexican heritage. Nor does it tell you who got into their state schools, which favor the home team.
 
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