Record numbers of people applying

[Old Grunt]

wow what a disheartening thread...I applied to so many "mid-tier" safeties and I was complete at most mid-late Sept...in other words, I applied to all those 10k+ applicant schools way too late.

Ugh...I keep telling myself I'm interesting and unique.

Keep in mind that most things here are anecdotal and speculatory. I am sure the admissions offices have told interviewees that they are getting bombarded with applicants, but that doesn't necessarily mean the applicant pool is getting larger. I can't think of any national trend that would account for that. I don't think the popularity of Grey's Anatomy or Scrubs is going to force very many people to change their career path.

It could mean that people are applying earlier and more often and then eventually things will reach level off.

That too is speculatory, but I wouldn't waste time freaking out about something that was entirely beyond my control, and I wouldn't worry about it until I saw something official from AMCAS.

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[LizzyM]

We did see more applications early in the season than we had in years past. Is this due to "apply early" combined perhaps with the opportunities to take the MCAT in May/June rather than August.

Could it be due to more people applying broadly? Quite possible, too.

Bottom line is, it is unlikely that more interview slots will open to accomodate the larger number of applicants. This means that it may be more difficult to get an interview but it will not change the proportion of interviewees who are offered admission.

Another thing I'm noticing this year is a greater emphasis on choosing applicants who seem genuinely interested in the school. This may help schools avoid the "empty waitlist" situation next summer if too many of their offers & waitlisters matriculate elsewhere.

 

[Phoenix.]

Thanks for weighing in, LizzyM!

Just curious - from what you've seen, have you guys already broken past the total number of applications from last year, or could applications actually taper off so dramatically now that there will only be a very slight total increase in the number of applicants this year?

 

[LizzyM]

It may be a couple of weeks before I know the total number of applications received. (the staff knows but the adcom members get updates periodically).

 

[hawk126]

I know schools are saying that, but, here is how the numbers may work.
Say a low/mid teir school only interviews 400 people. Now say 350 people with amazing top notch stats apply to that school as a safety and they all get interviews. (follow me here) Now these 350 all get aceepted, but later turn them down for a top tier school. That low tier school is now stuck and has no choice but to go back and interview more. With really awesome applicants sending apps to more and more safety schools, the system will have to adjust.

I think that you're logic is pretty good except that you failed to account for the possibility that due to increase MCAT test dates, there may be more applicants with 35+ MCAT scores. If it is true that more MCAT test-takers scored 35+, then more applicants with great scores won't get into top-tier schools... and they have to end up somewhere right? Borrowing the hypothetical numbers introduced in your prvs post, if it's true that more applicants score 35+, then it's unlikely that all 350 acceptees go elsewhere (top-tier schools) because there simply won't be spots for them given the glut of students with great MCATs. If all of the above is true (maybe, maybe not), then those with 28-32 MCATs would be the likely casualties. Or perhaps those students might benefit from the multiple MCAT dates and end up in 30-34 range instead. Who knows???

 

[BrokenGlass]

I think that you're logic is pretty good except that you failed to account for the possibility that due to increase MCAT test dates, there may be more applicants with 35+ MCAT scores. If it is true that more MCAT test-takers scored 35+, then more applicants with great scores won't get into top-tier schools... and they have to end up somewhere right? Borrowing the hypothetical numbers introduced in your prvs post, if it's true that more applicants score 35+, then it's unlikely that all 350 acceptees go elsewhere (top-tier schools) because there simply won't be spots for them given the glut of students with great MCATs. If all of the above is true (maybe, maybe not), then those with 28-32 MCATs would be the likely casualties. Or perhaps those students might benefit from the multiple MCAT dates and end up in 30-34 range instead. Who knows???

Scores are just as likely to go down as up on retakes. It's unlikely that there are more people with 35+ MCAT unless the applicant pool has increased.

 

[postbacker]

Scores are just as likely to go down as up on retakes. It's unlikely that there are more people with 35+ MCAT unless the applicant pool has increased.

Agreed...and isn't the MCAT scaled or curved? So without an increase in the total number of test takers, there would be no increase in the number of scores at any given level, right?

 

[hawk126]

Agreed...and isn't the MCAT scaled or curved? So without an increase in the total number of test takers, there would be no increase in the number of scores at any given level, right?

Too true. I stand corrected.

 

[ChubbyChaser]

Agreed...and isn't the MCAT scaled or curved? So without an increase in the total number of test takers, there would be no increase in the number of scores at any given level, right?

I think there could be an increase just because now you have the option of retaking multiple times, so eventually you will get the score you want, Some ppl may score 32 on the first try, and other ppl may score 32 on the third try

 

[BrokenGlass]

I think there could be an increase just because now you have the option of retaking multiple times, so eventually you will get the score you want, Some ppl may score 32 on the first try, and other ppl may score 32 on the third try

Some people will get higher scores on retakes, some people will get lower scores. Just cause you take it 3 times, doesn't mean the averages will go up.

 

[ChubbyChaser]

Some people will get higher scores on retakes, some people will get lower scores. Just cause you take it 3 times, doesn't mean the averages will go up.

Most schools dont average, in fact alot of schools just look at your last score. SO as soon as you get the score you want, you apply

 

[167649]

Some people will get higher scores on retakes, some people will get lower scores. Just cause you take it 3 times, doesn't mean the averages will go up.

I think the point was that because the MCAT format has changed (as in you can take every month now) and this is the first ever admissions cycle with that format, there is a possibility that the ratio of improvement/drops may have changed, in favor of improvement. Before, you had to wait 6 months to take it again. Now, not nearly as long, and so it is possible more people are seeing improvement when retaking than previously. It's all speculation right now anyways and we will not have a definitive answer for over a year, when many of us (hopefully) will have matriculated and dont care anymore. But I do think that although early apps, SDN, broad applications and increases in the pool have something to do with it, I think the flooding of schools with apps and last years changes to the MCAT are too significant to have happened independently and the timing cannot be a coinsidence.

 

[BrokenGlass]

Most schools dont average, in fact alot of schools just look at your last score. SO as soon as you get the score you want, you apply

Yes, except many people never get the score they want, no matter how many times they tried. Someone who takes MCAT 3 times and still doesn't do well is probably so pshychologically crushed that s/he would do a carrer change instead of attempting it the 4th time.

 

[BrokenGlass]

I think the point was that because the MCAT format has changed (as in you can take every month now) and this is the first ever admissions cycle with that format, there is a possibility that the ratio of improvement/drops may have changed, in favor of improvement. Before, you had to wait 6 months to take it again. Now, not nearly as long, and so it is possible more people are seeing improvement when retaking than previously. It's all speculation right now anyways and we will not have a definitive answer for over a year, when many of us (hopefully) will have matriculated and dont care anymore. But I do think that although early apps, SDN, broad applications and increases in the pool have something to do with it, I think this increase is so significant it is not coinscidence it happened immediately the mcat change.

How do you know MCAT averages are up? They could also be down. All we know is that schools are getting more applications now than same time last year. This doesn't mean that MCAT averages are up. Nor does this mean that total # of applications is significantly up from last year. Actually, # of applications is probably up, regardless of MCAT format changes...that's the trend for the past few years, but again, there is no evidence that MCAT averages are up. The most prudent assumption is that your score is just as likely to go up as down on a retake.

 

[167649]

How do you know MCAT averages are up? They could also be down. All we know is that schools are getting more applications then same time last year. This doesn't mean that MCAT averages are up. Nor does this mean that # of applications is significantly up from last year. Actually, # of applications are going up, regardless of MCAT format changes...that's the trend for the past few years, but again, there is no evidence that MCAT averages are up.

I never said the averages were up. You are taking my point out of context. I said it is possible that, because the format now allows unlimited retakes closer together, there is a good chance more people are impoving their scores with multiple tries. Not all people, some (in fact, a lot) will certainly go down. But potentially more are doing better. We have no idea and there are no data, you are right about that, and as I said in my post we will not have complete data for over a year. But I speculate that the increase in apps cannot be accounted for by just an increase in the number of people applying and those applying broadly alone. The changes in the mcat are huge and the timing coincides with the increase in applications almost too well. Again, everything is speculation right now, even amongst the adcoms to a certain extent, and it will be for a long while.

 

[ChubbyChaser]

But dont you agree, if you can take it 3 times in a matter of months, you will be more likely to pull out say a 32 on one of them. Yes i know some will never score this high, but if you are able to take it this many times, chances are that eventually you will score at the upper end of your potential.; Say someone has the knowledge and potential to score anywhere rom a 27-32, under the old system where you had to wait 6 months before you could retest if you scored at the low end (27) then you were screwed, but under the new system if you score a 27 you can be like " owell ill just retake" and you have a chance of scoring higher than that 27, yes you can go lower, but if you take it enough times you will eventually score higher than that 27.


So i think the average MCAT will probably go up slightly, nothing significant, but slightly

 

[BrokenGlass]

I never said the averages were up. You are taking my point out of context. I said it is possible that, because the format now allows unlimited retakes closer together, there is a good chance more people are impoving their scores with multiple tries. Not all people, some (in fact, a lot) will certainly go down. But potentially more are doing better. We have no idea and there are no data, you are right about that, and as I said in my post we will not have complete data for over a year. But I speculate that the increase in apps cannot be accounted for by just an increase in the number of people applying and those applying broadly alone. The changes in the mcat are huge and the timing coincides with the increase in applications almost too well. Again, everything is speculation right now, even amongst the adcoms to a certain extent, and it will be for a long while.

There is no such thing as unlimited retakes. Also, if you have scores from 3 different MCATs, ad coms will not merely ignore the other 2 and take your best or lates score. In the back of their minds, they'll be thinking why it took this person 3 tries...this cannot possibly work in this applicant's favor. So taking MCAT 3 times, even if you eventually get a score you are happy with, doesn't necessarily make you a better applicant.

If you are saying that people are improving their scores on retakes, than it's only logical to infer that averages are up (according to your logic). I am not trying to put words into your mouth. I don't get any accolades for that.

 

[BrokenGlass]

But dont you agree, if you can take it 3 times in a matter of months, you will be more likely to pull out say a 32 on one of them. Yes i know some will never score this high, but if you are able to take it this many times, chances are that eventually you will score at the upper end of your potential.; Say someone has the knowledge and potential to score anywhere rom a 27-32, under the old system where you had to wait 6 months before you could retest if you scored at the low end (27) then you were screwed, but under the new system if you score a 27 you can be like " owell ill just retake" and you have a chance of scoring higher than that 27, yes you can go lower, but if you take it enough times you will eventually score higher than that 27.


So i think the average MCAT will probably go up slightly, nothing significant, but slightly

Not necessarily. 3 times is not nearly enough to score at the upper end of your potential. Maybe if you took it 30 times, but not 3 times. You are assuming that you can take the test enough times. You really cannot. After about 3 times you have shot yourself in the foot.

 

[167649]

There is no such thing as unlimited retakes.

Yes, there is. You may take it as many times as you want now. Part of the mcat change.

Also, if you have scores from 3 different MCATs, ad coms will not merely ignore the other 2 and take your best or latest score. In the back of their minds, they'll be thinking why it took this person 3 tries...this cannot possibly work in this applicant's favor. So taking MCAT 3 times, even if you eventually get a score you are happy with, doesn't necessarily make you a better applicant.

You are right in that taking multiple times doesn't necessarily make you a better applicant at some schools. But not at all, depending on the school, because some only look at the highest, some combine the best section, and some look at the most recent. But your right, in general, it is far better to just do well the first time.

But, don't forget we are not talking about who will get an acceptance, this thread is about who is applying. If people do improve their score based on at least one of these criteria, they know that some schools are more forgiving about this, and are more likely to apply. Therefore, my logic is that MCAT changes = larger numbers of applications this year. Not larger number of acceptances or even a larger number of better candidates. Just a larger # of apps.

I am not trying to put words into your mouth. I don't get any accolades for that.

I just said you misinterpreted my post. My apologies if I made it seem like I was implying this.

 

[BrokenGlass]

Yes, there is. You may take it as many times as you want now. Part of the mcat change.



You are right in that taking multiple times doesn't necessarily make you a better applicant at some schools. But not at all, depending on the school, because some only look at the highest, some combine the best section, and some look at the most recent. But your right, in general, it is far better to just do well the first time.

But, don't forget we are not talking about who will get an acceptance, this thread is about who is applying. If people do improve their score based on at least one of these criteria, they know that some schools are more forgiving about this, and are more likely to apply. Therefore, my logic is that MCAT changes = larger numbers of applications this year. Not larger number of acceptances or even a larger number of better candidates. Just a larger # of apps.



I just said you misinterpreted my post. My apologies if I made it seem like I was implying this.

People retake because they believe they can do better. With each successive retake and failure to get their target score, people lose confidence. There are no unlimited retakes. Someone who bombs it 3 times will be in no mood to take it the 4th time. Also, you need AMCAS permission to take it more than 3 times. How many times do you think this permission will be granted? An unlimited number of times? I think not. Again, averages don't necessarily go up because people have a chance to retake. Retake scores are just as likely to go down.

Your reasoning is simalar to saying that if you play a slot machine enough times, you eventually win. Guess what? You may run out of money before you win.

 

[ChubbyChaser]

People retake because they believe they can do better. With each successive retake and failure to get their target score, people lose confidence. There are no unlimited retakes. Someone who bombs it 3 times will be in no mood to take it the 4th time. Also, you need AMCAS permission to take it more than 3 times. How many times do you think this permission will be granted? An unlimited number of times? I think not. Again, averages don't necessarily go up because people have a chance to retake. Retake scores are just as likely to go down.

Your reasoning is simalar to saying that if you play a slot machine enough times, you eventually win. Guess what? You may run out of money before you win.[/q

statistically speaking if 1/3 of applicants score lower on a retake, 1/3 score the same, and 1/3 score higher. If you retake 3-4times, there are good chances that you will improve on previous scores

 

[postbacker]

People retake because they believe they can do better. With each successive retake and failure to get their target score, people lose confidence. There are no unlimited retakes. Someone who bombs it 3 times will be in no mood to take it the 4th time. Also, you need AMCAS permission to take it more than 3 times. How many times do you think this permission will be granted? An unlimited number of times? I think not. Again, averages don't necessarily go up because people have a chance to retake. Retake scores are just as likely to go down.

Your reasoning is simalar to saying that if you play a slot machine enough times, you eventually win. Guess what? You may run out of money before you win.[/q

statistically speaking if 1/3 of applicants score lower on a retake, 1/3 score the same, and 1/3 score higher. If you retake 3-4times, there are good chances that you will improve on previous scores

How do you figure that? What do you mean by "good chances?"

I am not a stats guy, but it would seem to me that the 1/3 - 1/3 - 1/3 applies to EACH retake - the upside chances of improving are not additive...

There are stats somewhere that actually break it down using real examples, and it is even worse than 1/3 chance of same, better or worse the higher your first score...the higher your first score, the lower the chances of improving it (i.e., if you have a 30 and try to raise it with a retake, you are more likely to go down than if you have, say, a 24 and retake)...the evidence shows that someone with a 32 who retakes has a much bigger chance of going down, and so on, with a retake...

 

[enigma85]

The major point is the timing of the MCAT, not necessarily just the # of times you can take it.....

For example, in previous years, let's say 30% of April MCAT retook the August MCAT, and half of them improved (or maintained a decent enough score to apply). So those 15% would probably be complete at schools around October IF they already submitted the AMCAS.

In the current system, that 15% probably improved on the May/June/July MCAT (instead of August) and have already been complete at many schools. So, just to guess, a 15% increase due to earlier/more frequent MCAT, a 3% increase in # of applicants, a 2% increase in the # of applications per applicant, and voila, you already have a 20% in applications at the beginning of the application cycle. Granted, the increase would drop down to 5% by November/December. About two weeks ago, Michigan's website said its # of applications was up 40%, but now it is only up 20%.

However, what remains to be seen is how schools deal with this. I imagine that the very strong applicants will hold a larger number of acceptances (and earlier) and many schools will have to rely more on the waitlist than in previous years. Many schools have simple secondaries where it is not really possible to distinguish yourself as a "good fit" at the school, as LizzyM suggests. I guess we probably see a smaller % of applicants getting interviews, but a greater % of interviewees accepted to at least one school.

 

[TheRealMD]

In theory, you should expect average scores to go up because it is a self-selecting process. A person who gets a 26 in April still has a decent amount of time to take the test again in both June and Sept, all within the same cycle. If a person pulls a 36 on that last test, well.. their app is definitely more competitive than if they stuck with the 26 in April or if they got a 29 in June.

Again, it's possible, and with a pool of 40,000, if it were to happen to 500 people, it can create a slightly noticeable shift.

 

[BrokenGlass]

In theory, you should expect average scores to go up because it is a self-selecting process. A person who gets a 26 in April still has a decent amount of time to take the test again in both June and Sept, all within the same cycle. If a person pulls a 36 on that last test, well.. their app is definitely more competitive than if they stuck with the 26 in April or if they got a 29 in June.

Again, it's possible, and with a pool of 40,000, if it were to happen to 500 people, it can create a slightly noticeable shift.

I don't know what you mean by a self-selective process. A person who gets a 26 in April can get a 22 in June AND September. If it were to happen to 600 people, the averages would go down, not up (assuming # of test-takers hasn't gone up). "IF" is a small part of your sentence but a big part of your argument. In a large enough pool of applicants, people who improve their scores will cancel out people who get lower scores on a retake. If we are gonna start assuming random things, we can also assume (with equal validity) that averages may go down.

 

[TheRealMD]

I don't know what you mean by a self-selective process. A person who gets a 26 in April can get a 22 in June AND September. If it were to happen to 600 people, the averages would go down, not up (assuming # of test-takers hasn't gone up). "IF" is a small part of your sentence but a big part of your argument. In a large enough pool of applicants, people who improve their scores will cancel out people who get lower scores on a retake. If we are gonna start assuming random things, we can also assume (with equal validity) that averages may go down.

If you are getting a 22, most people would recommend you not applying. Therefore, averages should go up.

 

[Manyac86]

I don't know what you mean by a self-selective process. A person who gets a 26 in April can get a 22 in June AND September. If it were to happen to 600 people, the averages would go down, not up (assuming # of test-takers hasn't gone up). "IF" is a small part of your sentence but a big part of your argument. In a large enough pool of applicants, people who improve their scores will cancel out people who get lower scores on a retake. If we are gonna start assuming random things, we can also assume (with equal validity) that averages may go down.

Assume 1000 people score a 26 in April and decide 26 is just below their cutoff for applying and decide to retake.
Assume 60% of people do worse on a retake and 40% do better.
Assume that when retaker improves from 26 they stop retaking and apply. Assume all people who score 26 or worse decide to retake.

Retake 1:
400 people did better than a 26 and apply with a higher score.
600 people are left.

Retake 2:
240 people did better than a 26 and apply with a higher score.
360 people are left.


End result: 640 people out of our 1000 did better than a 26.

The selection is: people who do better on the retake are no longer in the pool for retakes. People who did worse can keep trying until they make it or give up. Thus even though 60% of our applicants did worse on a given retake, 64% of the people end up doing better and this is just given the 3 times you can take a test in a given year.

 

[postbacker]

Assume 1000 people score a 26 in April and decide 26 is just below their cutoff for applying and decide to retake.
Assume 60% of people do worse on a retake and 40% do better.
Assume that when retaker improves from 26 they stop retaking and apply. Assume all people who score 26 or worse decide to retake.

Retake 1:
400 people did better than a 26 and apply with a higher score.
600 people are left.

Retake 2:
240 people did better than a 26 and apply with a higher score.
360 people are left.


End result: 640 people out of our 1000 did better than a 26.

The selection is: people who do better on the retake are no longer in the pool for retakes. People who did worse can keep trying until they make it or give up. Thus even though 60% of our applicants did worse on a given retake, 64% of the people end up doing better and this is just given the 3 times you can take a test in a given year.

The problem with your logic here is that for Retake 1, for the 400 people you have assumed scored better than a 26, they would not necessarily improve their score to the "good range," namely a 30+...many if not most of them would get only a 27, or 28, or 29...and they would in all likelihood feel the need to take the test again before applying...and then the odds will catch up with 2/3 of them and they may do no better on the 3rd testing or even possibly go down...your logic assumes that there is an "additive" positive upward trend for people who take the MCAT multiple times, but I have not seen any such data supporting that theory. Your "end result" that 64 percent of the people in your 2 retake scenario would have improved their MCAT score is not statistically sound...and even if that many had improved their score, there is the chance that they only improved it to a 27 or 28 or 29...

It is not simply a matter of "improving" on a low score, but how much one improves, that matters...and relying on the AMCAS official stats for the odds of improving an MCAT score, it is NOT simply a matter of taking the test how ever many times you need to in order to get that 30+...some people will never score a 30+, and even if there is no official limit on the # of times one can take the test, there is certainly a theoretical practical limit to how many times someone will take the MCAT to obtain that 30+ score, I am guessing probably around 4 or 5 times...and the more reasonable practical limit of 2 or maybe 3 total testings is further supported by what medical schools say about it - they evidently take a dim view of multiple test takings (more than 2) as reported on their websites...

Does anybody know of someone who has taken the MCAT more than 3 times? I have never heard of it...and I seriously doubt that many people have done it, and I further doubt that many of them have raised a low to mid 20s score to the low to mid 30s score by doing this (although someone is reporting on another thread a 26/26/32 result, but again I think that is pretty rare)...

 

[GeorgeFoster]

Does anybody know of someone who has taken the MCAT more than 3 times? I have never heard of it...and I seriously doubt that many people have done it, and I further doubt that many of them have raised a low to mid 20s score to the low to mid 30s score by doing this (although someone is reporting on another thread a 26/26/32 result, but again I think that is pretty rare)...

Well, I know as of last year AAMC didn't allow people to re-take more than a third time without authorization (I think I read that on their on-line registration material). It might be different this year but I don't know why it would be.

I also know, from Kaplan, that unless you're still finishing pre-reqs or have taken a prep course, more people see a slight score drop from re-takes than see a score rise. And if you've taken a retake within 3 months, I don't know exactly how much good preparation time that will give you.

 

[bulb cavernosum]

I am not a stats guy, but it would seem to me that the 1/3 - 1/3 - 1/3 applies to EACH retake - the upside chances of improving are not additive...

I'd agree - the odds dictate that you will improve after three attempts.

The odds that your score will improve on the first retake is, according to your numbers, 1/3. The odds you WON'T improve is 2/3. So, if you take it twice, and then give it ANOTHER try (third total attempt), that's another 2/3 shot at not improving, for a total of (2/3)*(2/3) = 4/9.... 1-(4/9) = .55 shot at improving your score. Let's say you take the test 10 times, that's 9 repeats, or 1-((2/3)^9) = .974!!!!!! The more, the better statistically speaking. However, I know of no equation that can predict how the AdComs will take your 10 friggin' attempts.

 

[MarieMarie]

Other thoughts?

Gray's Anatomy. Seriously. That stupid show has convinced thousands of idiots that they too can ride into the sunset with McDreamy.

 

[Phoenix.]

Gray's Anatomy. Seriously. That stupid show has convinced thousands of idiots that they too can ride into the sunset with McDreamy.

Forget McDreamy. I want McSteamy.

 

[CSnowFoxD]

Forget McDreamy. I want McSteamy.

Damnit! You beat me to it

 

[TopDocChick]

I am so distressed. I was supposed to apply early but an untimely, tragic death in my immediate family pushed everything off. I really want to get in this year since I am non-traditional and only getting older, and I have a family that is ready to pack up and move. I know I could work next year and get more experience, but I don't need more experience and my family will be stuck in limbo for another year. It would really be a wasteful, unproductive year. I have good stats, not stellar, but pretty good. Pretty stellar if you ignore my early undergrad experience of one year 10 years ago.
just one instate interview (auto-invite), three holds and so far no rejections.

I hope this week is brings good news to all of us. Perhaps some new, secret, MD school will open up in all of our states and magically become a competitive school that we will be proud to attend. And perhaps I will turn into a fairy princess and fly on my magic unicorn to my interviews while wearing my sparkly interview ball gown. Perhaps my interviewer will be a genie who grants me three wishes. First I will wish that all SDNers get into medical school because we are the ones who are serious about it. Next I will wish for world peace and health (wait, does that mean we are out of a job?) and lastly, of course, I will wish that - what the hell am I talking about. Oh yea, it is too early in the morning. I am going back to PCHEM.

 

[cardboardearrin]

All these numbers and stats are giving me a headache.