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Most older docs in my community are going strong. That older generation is one to work till they can’t work anymore. Early retirement is not in their vocabulary. Trying not to make a blanket statement but this applies to most older docs I know ofNo one can predict the true #'s at this point in time, but what I can tell you is I've already seen loss of older docs in my community that have no intention of returning to clinical medicine. Your're saying that a loss of 1-2% of docs would apply evenly across the workforce and be in line with loss of general population, but I think it would disproportionally affect our old and gray haired work force. At the end of the day it isn't a matter of infection or death but psychology. Especially when realistically this could go on for 3 yrs before a vaccine is made (having a reliable vaccine in 1 yr is a pipe dream IMO).
I also think the average 65 year old ophthalmologist is sitting on larger piles of cash or liquefiable equity than the average 65 year old, and it would not be out of the question just to retire early. Hell I would.