Should I do early decision? Appealing, but I don't won't to sell myself short.

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Many medical schools with EDP have requirements (or suggestions) that potential applicants contact the admissions committee before applying EDP.

You have good stats and a publication, but I see very little nonclinical volunteering. What are your hours like for that?

With well written essays and a clearly communicated goal for medicine, you could get in somewhere, or you could get in nowhere. Your chance is 74% based on AMCAS data for students with your MCAT/GPA.

In your position, I wouldn't apply EDP unless you get strong encouragement from the admissions committee to do so. You stand a decent chance of getting into your state school even if you apply normally, so I don't see the benefit of limiting yourself to one school and disadvantaging yourself at others.
 
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