Should your MCAT percentile decrease the next year?

[TheAppleJuice]

So I am a re-applicant and I noticed my mcat percentile decreased. Should this be? i know it's probably of minimal significance but

In theory, one should be expected to score at the same percentile (within a margin of error), regardless of the year/group/test one takes. So, instead of your percentile decreasing based off next years group and tests, in theory, shouldn't your MCAT score increase to match the percentile you would be expected to achieve in that given year (which would be expected to be the same as the previous year)? after all, like any test, the numeric scores (say 472-528) really mean nothing - it's the percentile that matters

say i score a 513, which say is 90th percentile. I"m in the top 10% and should be expected to remain in the top 10% of my peers regardless of the year taken

so let's say next year a 513 becomes 88th percentiles and a 514 is 90th percentiles. shouldn't I reasonably expect to have scored a 514 in that year if I had waited until that year to take the MCAT in the first place

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[Lucca]

so, if the percentiles are adjusted then your score is adjusted to the new percentile automatically. My score dropped 1%-ile from 2016 to 2017, for example.

That said, percentiles are stable. they changed in the first few years of the new exam because, basically, too few people had taken the exam to have a robust curve. Even then, the percentiles didnt really change very much the following year and since they havent moved.

 

[Isoval]

So I am a re-applicant and I noticed my mcat percentile decreased. Should this be? i know it's probably of minimal significance but

In theory, one should be expected to score at the same percentile (within a margin of error), regardless of the year/group/test one takes. So, instead of your percentile decreasing based off next years group and tests, in theory, shouldn't your MCAT score increase to match the percentile you would be expected to achieve in that given year (which would be expected to be the same as the previous year)? after all, like any test, the numeric scores (say 472-528) really mean nothing - it's the percentile that matters

say i score a 513, which say is 90th percentile. I"m in the top 10% and should be expected to remain in the top 10% of my peers regardless of the year taken

so let's say next year a 513 becomes 88th percentiles and a 514 is 90th percentiles. shouldn't I reasonably expect to have scored a 514 in that year if I had waited until that year to take the MCAT in the first place

The percentile you saw the day you received your score was based on the previous years’ percentile data.

E.g. You took a January 2018 exam with a score report using percentiles that were released in May 2017 (aggregate from May 2016 to May 2017).

The current percentiles (the ones you see today) are based on an aggregate from May 2017 to May 2018 - which includes the time period during which you actually took the exam.

The percentile you see today is actually more accurate than the previous one since it’s actually based off your testing day.

Additionally, I’ll be frank. Nobody really cares if you dropped from 91st to 89th percentile because the percentiles shifted year over year.

 

[DubbiDoctor]

The score out of 528 is a scaled score, which is not intrinsically linked to the percentile score. If you score a 514 one year, and maintain the same level of proficiency, you should score the exact same scaled score several years later, even if the percentiles have changed. However, your score would likely change a bit simply because no exam is 100% reliable. Your percentile score is based on the proficiency of the cohort for which the percentiles are determined. Unlike the scaled score, it's not directly based on how Qs you got right. For example, I took the MCAT in June of 2017, scoring a 518. My performance puts me at the 97th percentile for the examinees in 2016, but 96th for examinees in 2017. My percentile marginally decreased because there were more high scorers in 2017 than in 2016. If in 2019, only *****s are allowed to take the MCAT, a score of 500 would likely correspond to the 100th percentile for the 2019 cohort. But that score of 500 would not show greater proficiency than a score of 500 earned in 2018, which corresponds to the 49th percentile for the 2017 cohort.