So what exactly are the chances of getting into a med school with your "LizzyM"

[TheBiologist]

---

Members don't see this ad.

I will be applying to med schools soon and just getting my MCAT back checked my "LizzyM" score and it came out to "73"

It showed me a list of schools with a score around mine and I was wondering what the chances of getting in these schools are.

For instance, if I apply to 10 schools with a score between 70-73, is it solid I will get into at least say a third of them? Or does it not work like that.

I know someone will bring up "it's more than just MCAT and GPA" so I'll point out that I have decent EC's - Job, Research, SI leader, 30 hours shadowing 3 different physicians, rock climbing

I want to go to either Brown or NYU.

thanks 🙂

 

[777137]

If you didn't go to Brown in undergrad, it's unlikely you'll get there even will a LizzyM well above their average. They take predominantly their own grads.

 

[TheBiologist]

If you didn't go to Brown in undergrad, it's unlikely you'll get there even will a LizzyM well above their average. They take predominantly their own grads.

did not go to Brown so good to know. did go to top 25 ugrad tho, so maybe I'll apply and hope i get lucky

 

[purplegold201635]

I like the LizzyM system, but I think the new WedgeDog spreadsheet would be worth looking at too in order to see what types of schools you would be a good fit for!

 

[Domepiece]

I think it would be safest to not assume anything when it comes to medical school admissions, as unhelpful as that advice is. A realistic, well researched list of schools for your application will lead to the greatest opportunity for maximum acceptances.

 

[Lucca]

Interviews received are a stronger predictor of success than your LuzzyM. Once you have interviews, 1 in 3-5 will be an acceptance according to a loose heuristic.

 

[LizzyM]

harness the power of big data... google AAMC Table 24. Find the cell that best describes you and you'll know how many applicants like you were admitted out of the pool of applicants like you over a three year period.

 

[PatchAdams25]

harness the power of big data... google AAMC Table 24. Find the cell that best describes you and you'll know how many applicants like you were admitted out of the pool of applicants like you over a three year period.

Question on using the AAMC grid.... As a hispanic who is non URM, should I use the Hispanic/Latino grid for my chances or White? I 100% am hispanic but just not one of the lucky to be considered URM in most circumstances. Should I use a combination of both to assess my chances?

 

[Lucca]

Question on using the AAMC grid.... As a hispanic who is non URM, should I use the Hispanic/Latino grid for my chances or White? I 100% am hispanic but just not one of the lucky to be considered URM in most circumstances. Should I use a combination of both to assess my chances?

Use White. Assessing chances is a sort of pointless endeavor anyway. In my eyes you are either "a long shot", "competitive", "very competitive" or "not competitive at all". Success can probably only be predicted by number of interview invites since that is the most direct and comprehensive feedback on your individual application you can receive.

 

[The Knife & Gun Club]

I will be applying to med schools soon and just getting my MCAT back checked my "LizzyM" score and it came out to "73"

It showed me a list of schools with a score around mine and I was wondering what the chances of getting in these schools are.

For instance, if I apply to 10 schools with a score between 70-73, is it solid I will get into at least say a third of them? Or does it not work like that.

I know someone will bring up "it's more than just MCAT and GPA" so I'll point out that I have decent EC's - Job, Research, SI leader, 30 hours shadowing 3 different physicians, rock climbing

I want to go to either Brown or NYU.

thanks 🙂

If your lizzyM matches theirs then that means your mcat and gpa combination are similar to the median mcat/gpa of students accepted to those programs.

So, basically you are numerically qualified to receive admission.

However actually gaining admission requires you have those numbers plus an otherwise strong app. Look for good ECs, strong reasons to attend the school, etc. Without those you can get rejected even with above average stats.

By the same token strong intangibles can save an app with below average numbers though...

 

[JustAPhD]

^Agreed. Your LizzyM may get your foot in the door but it's your whole package that will get you that acceptance. For example, you could have an 80 LizzyM score but not get into anywhere because you have the social skills of roadkill. It's a more holistic approach than strictly numerical.

 

[LizzyM]

Question on using the AAMC grid.... As a hispanic who is non URM, should I use the Hispanic/Latino grid for my chances or White? I 100% am hispanic but just not one of the lucky to be considered URM in most circumstances. Should I use a combination of both to assess my chances?

The grid for Hispanic is for all Hispanic, not just those who are considered URM. It might be the best approximation you have.

 

[DumboOctopus]

It doesn't work like that. You have a good chance, but it will depend a lot on other things, like LOR and personal statement. With regards to Brown: give it a shot. I did not go to Brown undergrad and got both accepted and offered significant merit aid there. I had a lizzy M around 73 too

 

[clippers50fan]

If you didn't go to Brown in undergrad, it's unlikely you'll get there even will a LizzyM well above their average. They take predominantly their own grads.

Why does this get thrown around? Their class is 1/3 PLME with 2/3 being regular admissions. That's better than literally every public medical school in the nation.

 

[zhonghang]

Why does this get thrown around? Their class is 1/3 PLME with 2/3 being regular admissions. That's better than literally every public medical school in the nation.

Agreed. It baffles me too.

 

[Goro]

Your question is impossible to answer because this is something you can't quantitative. Stats get you to the door, but ECs get you through the door.


All I can tell you is that a 73 LM score is aa good score, and you should be able to get some interviews. Getting accepted is 100% on you.

I will be applying to med schools soon and just getting my MCAT back checked my "LizzyM" score and it came out to "73"

It showed me a list of schools with a score around mine and I was wondering what the chances of getting in these schools are.

For instance, if I apply to 10 schools with a score between 70-73, is it solid I will get into at least say a third of them? Or does it not work like that.

I know someone will bring up "it's more than just MCAT and GPA" so I'll point out that I have decent EC's - Job, Research, SI leader, 30 hours shadowing 3 different physicians, rock climbing

I want to go to either Brown or NYU.

thanks 🙂

 

[md-2020]

Why does this get thrown around? Their class is 1/3 PLME with 2/3 being regular admissions. That's better than literally every public medical school in the nation.

Because they then still disproportionately take their own UGs and those of other Ivies during the regular cycle.

 

[WedgeDawg]

I like the LizzyM system, but I think the new WedgeDog spreadsheet would be worth looking at too in order to see what types of schools you would be a good fit for!

Dawg

Why does this get thrown around? Their class is 1/3 PLME with 2/3 being regular admissions. That's better than literally every public medical school in the nation.

Brown INTERVIEWS 3% of their applicant pool. That is the same as harvard's overall MD acceptance rate, making it a low yield option for any applicant except their undergrads (as you say, 34% of their class went to undergrad at brown).

 

[clippers50fan]

Dawg



Brown INTERVIEWS 3% of their applicant pool. That is the same as harvard's overall MD acceptance rate, making it a low yield option for any applicant except their undergrads (as you say, 34% of their class went to undergrad at brown).

Well yes Brown Interviews 3% of their applicant pool but out of 300 interviews they accept somewhere around 250, similar to most MD schools. That's amazing. I would absolutely LOVE going to a interview knowing I have a 5/6 chance of getting an acceptance after, that's amazing. If anything, I prefer that.

 

[Lucca]

Well yes Brown Interviews 3% of their applicant pool but out of 300 interviews they accept somewhere around 250, similar to most MD schools. That's amazing. I would absolutely LOVE going to a interview knowing I have a 5/6 chance of getting an acceptance after, that's amazing. If anything, I prefer that.

What is a typical post-interview acceptance rate?

 

[GrapesofRath]

Why does this get thrown around? Their class is 1/3 PLME with 2/3 being regular admissions. That's better than literally every public medical school in the nation.

There are about 80 seats for people who apply through AMCAS. 100 apps/matriculant isn't a good ratio. Historically they also seem to like people from the New England region and big name UG schools as well.
Beyond that though the type of people they take tend to have certain characteristics. Per their class profile about 60 people took 3+ years off. 90 took more than one. You aren't allowed to take off more than 2 for PLME which means the majority of non PLME matriculants took 3+ years off. It's in other words a non trad type friendly school that looks for specific characteristics, achievements and quirks. Class is full of the Peace Corps, TFA types.

There is just nothing that's a high yield option about it. If you didnt go their for UG or fit what they are looking for, it's often just donating money

 

[2017mdapp]

harness the power of big data... google AAMC Table 24. Find the cell that best describes you and you'll know how many applicants like you were admitted out of the pool of applicants like you over a three year period.

https://www.aamc.org/download/321508/data/factstablea23.pdf

Based on this chart since I have a 3.8+gpa and a 39+mcat that means there are approximately 530 applicants and about 450 acceptances each year in this pool. Since there are approximately 2800 seats available in the "top twenty" medical schools, and I have satisfied/exceeded all the requisite EC along with going to a "top twenty" undergrad, my odds would seem favorable to get at least one acceptance to one of these schools since I applied to 14 of the top twenty. I know I am being a neurotic pre med since I have already been verified have pre written most of the anticipated secondaries and am working on my interviewing skills. I guess I need to let the process play out and know that I have done my best and hope I get the results that I desire. Although the mathematician in me feels like there should be a quantitative formula for this process.

 

[JustAPhD]

Based on this chart since I have a 3.8+gpa and a 39+mcat that means there are approximately 530 applicants and about 450 acceptances each year in this pool.....Although the mathematician in me feels like there should be a quantitative formula for this process.

There will never be a truly quantitative formula for admissions because there are qualitative variables in the mix. Just sit back and relax and let the cycle unfold, you should find plenty of success.

 

[Mad Jack]

LizzyM scores are not a predictor of whether you will get in, they are a fit predictor of where your application holds the most strength.

 

[clippers50fan]

What is a typical post-interview acceptance rate?

1/3 is generally normal with 1/2 being considered pretty good.

 

[LizzyM]

What is a typical post-interview acceptance rate?

I personally know someone who had 7 offers following 7 interviews and I'm sure there are some who have gone 0 for 5 or more including people who are interviewed and get nothing but waitlists. There is no predicting.... Some people interview poorly (they'd make good med students but don't communicate well) and some are just poor candidates for the profession of medicine despite looking good on paper.

 

[clippers50fan]

I personally know someone who had 7 offers following 7 interviews and I'm sure there are some who have gone 0 for 5 or more including people who are interviewed and get nothing but waitlists. There is no predicting.... Some people interview poorly (they'd make good med students but don't communicate well) and some are just poor candidates for the profession of medicine despite looking good on paper.

What makes a particularly strong interviewer, in your opinion?

 

[Goro]

Dig up my post on "guide to interviews"

What makes a particularly strong interviewer, in your opinion?

 

[Lucca]

I personally know someone who had 7 offers following 7 interviews and I'm sure there are some who have gone 0 for 5 or more including people who are interviewed and get nothing but waitlists. There is no predicting.... Some people interview poorly (they'd make good med students but don't communicate well) and some are just poor candidates for the profession of medicine despite looking good on paper.

I see. I definitely know people on both ends of that post-interview offer spectrum. I was wondering if schools themselves made these numbers available as I'm sure they keep track of how many they accept per interview.

 

[GrapesofRath]

I see. I definitely know people on both ends of that post-interview offer spectrum. I was wondering if schools themselves made these numbers available as I'm sure they keep track of how many they accept per interview.

40-50% is a good rough guideline if you want an all encompassing guideline for all schools. Some schools its around 80%. Others around 20%. YMMV

 

[Penn-mdphd]

I was wondering if schools themselves made these numbers available as I'm sure they keep track of how many they accept per interview.

US news has some data. Higher ranking schools are around 33% (Penn and Harvard being 28%), and some schools are around 50%. But yeah, probably around 40% is a good general rule of thumb.

 

[LizzyM]

You can't make this a probability question to determine the number of interviews required to get one offer. The laws of probability don't work here.

 

[2017mdapp]

You can't make this a probability question to determine the number of interviews required to get one offer. The laws of probability don't work here.

The laws of probability would still apply however you would have to factor in a random variable that can still be quantified. If we were to assume the random variable was the interview then we could categorize it and quantify it like a wide staircase moving up and down based on the quality of the interview but knowing that everyone on the staircase has a probability of getting accepted. If adcoms can create an algorithm in order to predict how many interviews/acceptances/enroll are needed to fill a class than the opposite could be created hence the random variable which is subject to chance but a chance that can be defined. It would be like counting cards in blackjack you would increase your probability of winning but it would also get you thrown out of the casino if caught. So in reality medical school admissions is a game of chance where you try to 'count the cards' to increase but not guarantee your chances of winning. Also I was not trying to disrespect LizzyM, since I do respect her advice and time, but I know my math professor would state that anything that is quantified does have a probability, even with many variables. Just like Wedgedawg is attempting to create a formula for interviews if one had enough data you could extrapolate that to include acceptances. I guess the bottom line is I just graduating and only working 8 hours 5 days a week leaves me too much time on my hands.

 

[LizzyM]

The laws of probability would still apply however you would have to factor in a random variable that can still be quantified. If we were to assume the random variable was the interview then we could categorize it and quantify it like a wide staircase moving up and down based on the quality of the interview but knowing that everyone on the staircase has a probability of getting accepted. If adcoms can create an algorithm in order to predict how many interviews/acceptances/enroll are needed to fill a class than the opposite could be created hence the random variable which is subject to chance but a chance that can be defined. It would be like counting cards in blackjack you would increase your probability of winning but it would also get you thrown out of the casino if caught. So in reality medical school admissions is a game of chance where you try to 'count the cards' to increase but not guarantee your chances of winning. Also I was not trying to disrespect LizzyM, since I do respect her advice and time, but I know my math professor would state that anything that is quantified does have a probability, even with many variables. Just like Wedgedawg is attempting to create a formula for interviews if one had enough data you could extrapolate that to include acceptances. I guess the bottom line is I just graduating and only working 8 hours 5 days a week leaves me too much time on my hands.

Cards are random and each card's position in the deck does not influence the position of the other cards. Much of probability assumes independence and that an outcome is random (flipping a coin). The problem with interviews is that the outcome of one interview is not necessarily independent of the outcome of another, not because the schools are colluding but because how you present yourself at one interview is not independent of your performance at other interviews. And the decisions of the adcoms are not random but are very deliberate. Someone who is a really, really terrible candidate will not get an offer even if they go on 25 interviews because in every instance the interview will be bad. Now maybe there is some learning that could go on such that an interviewer might get better with more experience. However, the "deer in the headlights" applicant who can barely answer with more than monosyllables, who does not make eye contact, who speaks with a monotone, with a heavy accent, with poor grammar, and who seems clueless about social cues and without any knowledge of the healthcare system or medical education is not getting in unless with practice they greatly improve their skills and acquire some basic knowledge (I'm talking about egregioius things like believing that you can open your own clinic as a licensed physician on the day you graduate medical school)

 

[Goro]

It only seems like a random process to applicants!

You can't make this a probability question to determine the number of interviews required to get one offer. The laws of probability don't work here.