So what's the general concensus on the date you should start panicking with no II?

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Based on my own experience and that of a few people I know (so, n = 5ish) it is very possible to get your first interview invitation after Thanksgiving or even the new year. Of course, that could be a weird anomaly or statistical bottleneck of some kind. If the experts say Thanksgiving, listen to them!

I don't think it's ever too early to start thinking about what you will do if you need to reapply. I lined up a job post-graduation pretty early on in my senior year and it made the process less stressful by eliminating a lot of the uncertainty. And by less stressful, I mean it went from a 10/10 to a 9/10...but hey, that's improvement!
 
First off you should never panic from a lack of an II. However, if you haven't heard anything by late November (thanksgiving is a good day because it sticks in your mind)
It's time to take a serious look at possible gap year plans and beefing up your application for the next year.
 
This has been discussed literally atleast 5+ times last year alone.

The search function is not here for decoration alone.
 
Assuming you were complete at all schools before September:

No II by Thanksgiving: Start re-evaluating your application, figure out what the weaknesses of your application and how can you improve these. I would not worry just yet.

No II after first week of January: Start worrying.

-Many II came out first week of January after the holidays.
-I say before September because a later application completion CAN lead to a later application review.
 
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