Based on my own experience and that of a few people I know (so, n = 5ish) it is very possible to get your first interview invitation after Thanksgiving or even the new year. Of course, that could be a weird anomaly or statistical bottleneck of some kind. If the experts say Thanksgiving, listen to them!
I don't think it's ever too early to start thinking about what you will do if you need to reapply. I lined up a job post-graduation pretty early on in my senior year and it made the process less stressful by eliminating a lot of the uncertainty. And by less stressful, I mean it went from a 10/10 to a 9/10...but hey, that's improvement!