Something for those who are worrying

[R_C_Hutchinson]

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I was bored today and so I fooled around with the data from my UW tests; here's something that might make those of you who are scared about doing much worse on the real thing than on the practice tests:

This is a running average of the last 7 tests compared to the test-by-test scores.

a few things to point out:
- These tests were under totally non-controlled conditions, which definitely added to the variation
- While my spread for test scores was 22, my spread for 7-in-a-row averages was 5
- These are values from tests not standardized to the average, which also adds a lot of variation; the nbme does standardize its tests

Bottom line: Even if you feel you did terribly, you likely did very close to how you were doing on questions before the test, and even if you actually did do terribly compared to how you had been doing, it likely won't move your percentage much from where your diagnostics were.

GL everyone, my test is on Thursday and I can't wait to be free...

 

[Tristy]

hey,

great graphs! How did you do them? I tried with excel but I've had no luck. And what do you mean by the spread and how do you calculate that? Thanks and best of luck!

 

[xspiritmental]

Thanks, Hutch---always a pleasure to see what you come up with when you're bored...😎 Good luck Thurs again.

 

[doctorFred]

Posted via Mobile Device
tell me that first graph doesn't totally look like torsades des pointes.


i need a vacation.

 

[R_C_Hutchinson]

hey,

great graphs! How did you do them? I tried with excel but I've had no luck. And what do you mean by the spread and how do you calculate that? Thanks and best of luck!

To make the graphs I did the normal graphing for the scores and then AVERAGE(Nx:Nx+7) and dragged it down and graphed that for the running average.

To get them on the site I did printscreen, then cropped them and uploaded them to a free image hosting service.

Thanks, Hutch---always a pleasure to see what you come up with when you're bored... Good luck Thurs again.

Thanks! Is this LaKedra? Marlon? Phillips?

tell me that first graph doesn't totally look like torsades des pointes.

As with the QT drugs this test was made with helpful intent but in vivo has turned out to be a pathology all its own. How poetic.

 

[osli]

I've attached a snapshot of the way I kept track of things. Here's hoping that the trend continues through test day...

 

[osli]

BTW... if anyone is wondering what I did around test #26... I finally got around to reading FA.

 

[VPDcurt]

Graphs look very pretty - doesn't really help anyone who is worrying though. Thanks. Ha I was expecting something along the lines of, "and I ended up getting a 258."

 

[Law2Doc]

Graphs look very pretty - doesn't really help anyone who is worrying though.

Agree. Having a tight trend is well and nice, but folks will worry that under the stress of the real thing they will become the outlier. It happens.

 

[Instatewaiter]

Agree. Having a tight trend is well and nice, but folks will worry that under the stress of the real thing they will become the outlier. It happens.

Way to calm people down. That's going to soothe some worries.

 

[VPDcurt]

Way to calm people down. That's going to soothe some worries.

+1


is it just me or did both UWorld and Kaplan have sufficient graphs, etc to track your progress?

 

[jbone]

Has anyone actually done worse on the actual exam compared to the NBMEs? I'm not talking the 265+ people...more like those that were in the 215-225 range on the NBMEs. Any input? Man...I'm taking it tomorrow and am freakin OUT!

 

[Law2Doc]

Way to calm people down. That's going to soothe some worries.

Is calming people into a false sense of security helpful? Fear is a fantastic motivator. Better to worry till the end and score 250 because you were afraid you might sketch and get 180.