Ten - Game Thread

[GoSpursGo]

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You're such a goon

… a MAFIA goon??

Town blocc: Samac, dubz, zenge

Probs town: spurs, fruit

beans: is in her own category because I want to town read her but I've also spent a lot of our games together snuggled up in her luxurious pocket

POE but not dead set for sure wolves: QQ, genny, kcalb, clem, toberto

POE is where I'll focus most of my energy today.

how is KC in your POE?

Kitz voting behavior

I wanna also talk mechanics for a minute.

Now we know what cell we’re in I am conflicted on what the next best step is as far as our power roles so I’d like to throw them out there.

There’s a world where the vig should out themselves in case they got role cop’d.
Then the jail keeper could throw them in jail tonight. We guarantee we have that shot on deck for N4.
I think this is what should happen if we get a green check.
But, if we get a red check today jailkeep essentially becomes a seer and I don’t know that protecting the vig is the right move.
Thoughtts

Role cop is dead

 

[WildZoo]

… a MAFIA goon??

😱

 

[samac]

… a MAFIA goon??

how is KC in your POE?

Kitz voting behavior

Role cop is dead

Yes I know. I don’t know what the wolves already know tho

 

[toberto]

I feel like you and Dubz were the only ones who got that it was clearly a joke.

smh

I’m gonna scream was the pr claim a joke

 

[GoSpursGo]

Yes I know. I don’t know what the wolves already know tho

If they knew the other PRs wouldn’t they kill the ones they knew with secret knowledge first?

But yeah otherwise I think your idea checks out

 

[GoSpursGo]

If they knew the other PRs wouldn’t they kill the ones they knew with secret knowledge first?

But yeah otherwise I think your idea checks out

Actually not you’re right @samac . They couldn’t stop the vig from working last night and could safely get them tonight. It checks out

On surface level revealing the vig makes sense

 

[samac]

If they knew the other PRs wouldn’t they kill the ones they knew with secret knowledge first?

But yeah otherwise I think your idea checks out

So we don’t know if they got a check on a vig or a jail keeper last night. A cop role is actually silent. So if they know who the vig is they’re dead tonight. If they know who the jail keeper is it doesn’t matter, they’re dead tonight if we don’t get a wolf today, they might protect themselves if they do and we have the vig shot tomorrow.
I dunno
Sometimes I like getting into mechanical weeds a little

 

[samac]

I’m gonna scream was the pr claim a joke

Tis was.
Thats our Zenges

 

[_rae_]

Now we know what cell we’re in

Do we? There's technically two cells that have a vig shot and a voyeur.

how is KC in your POE?

Kitz voting behavior

I didn't quite realize how early kcalb put a vote down on kitz. I also don't know if the bus/don't bus, politeness rules are the same across sites. I feel I know the least about kcalb, so they're in my POE. They're certainly not high on my list though.

 

[_rae_]

So we don’t know if they got a check on a vig or a jail keeper last night. A cop role is actually silent. So if they know who the vig is they’re dead tonight. If they know who the jail keeper is it doesn’t matter, they’re dead tonight if we don’t get a wolf today, they might protect themselves if they do and we have the vig shot tomorrow.
I dunno
Sometimes I like getting into mechanical weeds a little

Okay but does this mean vig should out themselves or no? Because I don't know that I see the benefit besides protection tonight.

 

[samac]

Do we? There's technically two cells that have a vig shot and a voyeur.

I didn't quite realize how early kcalb put a vote down on kitz. I also don't know if the bus/don't bus, politeness rules are the same across sites. I feel I know the least about kcalb, so they're in my POE. They're certainly not high on my list though.

The role cop flip shows column B.

 

[toberto]

kitz wasn't at risk of going over at that point. it was between SAR and santy at that point iirc

santy pushed for that kitz yeet really strongly after i swapped to kitz, and toby only voted kitz after santy pushed for it really hard

I’ll need to look back and look at the timestamps because I feel like Santy was just pushing Clem or Sars until I gave Kitz heat

I wasn’t liking the Clem or sars lynches hence not voting there yet and Kitz being my first vote after I looked at them more

 

[_rae_]

The role cop flip shows column B.

Oh I see how that worked now

 

[samac]

Okay but does this mean vig should out themselves or no? Because I don't know that I see the benefit besides protection tonight.

They’re mech cleared and protected tonight is the big one to guarantee the possibility of another shot.
We’d lose them N4 for sure tho but I hope the game is done by then

 

[toberto]

No wait I was voting wildzoo actually I just forgot to unyeet when I yeeted kitz

 

[toberto]

Anybody aware of Toby's general wolfing proclivities in this regard?

If you want to look at my recent season 12 champs Wolf games (g5 and finale) in my qualifier my partners are lynched d1 and d3. I don’t think I make any real push on my partner d1 and I actually defend them, and don’t end on the vote. D3 I think we agreed to distance eachother because they were going under

In finale I dont think I voted my partners at all the entire game, one partner was lynched d3 and I defended them the whole time, my other partner we won together in end game and I only considered them in the end game

 

[toberto]

Okay you’re here
How do you feel about Zenges push on you?

I don’t know if it’s because I’m hungover and it’s took me forever to catch up but I’m now mostly caught up and I don’t really remember what it was lol and I keep saying my name everywhere now

Is it cause I was apparently slow to vote kitz and I town read zenge early

I’ll need to read it again when I’m fully caught up

 

[GoSpursGo]

I don’t know if it’s because I’m hungover and it’s took me forever to catch up but I’m now mostly caught up and I don’t really remember what it was lol and I keep saying my name everywhere now

Is it cause I was apparently slow to vote kitz and I town read zenge early

I’ll need to read it again when I’m fully caught up

This is what I flagged as the main arguments in favor of you:

Alright--I need to establish if toby actually buried kitz very strongly, or if it was performative. I think I got into this last night at least surrounding the EOD1 stuff, but I'll try to be more comprehensive.

Also whether the reads on genny D2 are meaningful (TBH my snap judgement is that genny was in a lot of peoples' POE on D2, so I suspect this is confbias) and whether D1 Zenge approach was legit or pockety

samac's point about progression on Wasp is the strongest point I've seen so far in favor of Toby, I think

I sort of feel like it boils down to whether you're being pocket-y with zenge, the push on kitz and if it was genuine, and the substance to your read on genny.

I also think the progression on Wasp was a good point by samac.

 

[toberto]

I actually want to

yeet Toberto

Today.

@Animal Midwife @supershorty @kaydubs @DeadSantyForTheMemes

The d1 data on Toby is disturbing.

Toby was weirdly supportive of me.

Like Beans was THE MOST supportive of D1 Zenge.

And I can understand it with comments of “I’ve seen Zenge do this before as town”

Where Toby was equal to Beans, the single greatest Zenge champion D1.

And if you accept that Kcalb’s suspicion of me is reasonable and genuine, which I do…

Then you have to flip the table and ask, why does Toby feel so pockety?

What is the data

 

[GoSpursGo]

i kind of want to vote QQ.

I think I'm also favoring QQ (or Clem) today, with toby a possibility.

I know I said I was gonna do a bunch of work looking into the things I flagged earlier today, but realistically speaking I'm solo-parenting today (Mrs. Spurs is working a night shift tonight and is asleep) and in order to do those kinds of deep dives I'd have to let my kids rot in front of screens all day. My sense, based on what I've looked at so far, is I have to do a fair amount of mental gymnastics to make toby the MOST LIKELY wolf today.

 

[toberto]

ok lets discuss Zenge because I was liking their posts but I know no history of them



Looking at Zenge's posts this game they've been poking and prodding continuously, which is early confrontational behaviour and then the above post actually shows a bit of analysis towards their view on Kcalb. It's not just Zenge trying to poke bears and see's what sticks theirs an intention to solve behind it.

There was a lot of poking /attention towards Samac in particularly which does make me wary that it could be forceful/performative w/w but I'll hold that in the backburner for now.

I also thought this post showed the below showed they were taking a wider look at the thread and not just homing in on a comfortable angle


to me they look to be inquisitive and genuinely investigating, not having any agenda which are my initial thoughts on their play

This is what I said about Zenge, I had just been away from the topic for 6 hours and had a bunch of posts to read to catch up cause I just finished work. I hadn’t really gotten into the game too much and I’m with 16 players I don’t know. On my reading I was liking how Zenge was coming across hence what i say above. Spurs said they thought Zenge was sus, I had a conflicting opinion, I wanted to share that and actually get into the game after just finishing work and having time

I’m not sure why this makes me suspicious

 

[Kcalb]

yeah yeah yeah you're going to nonstop yeeting me until I'm dead.

just vote me and leave the thread if that's your only play

What is this victimist mindset lol

I'm the only voice talking about Toby today and my time in limited.

No one is really going stand in the way of yeeting clem when push comes to shove.

Fine.

Ignore me and yeet clem today.

But in a couple days when we're both dead, no one will be talking about Roberto and Clem will always be on people's minds

This is simply inacurrate

Day 3 Yeet Tally
rae () -
genny () -
Clem (1) - samac 33
Toby (3) - Zenge 20, fruit 22, Spurs 26

4/12
yeet close in ~22.5 hours

+Dubz vote. Toby us arguably the most voted person atm of sending this post

Santy was HARD village reading me for a reason.

Hiding yourself behind Santy's read is also a choice. Santy had no certain nor mechanical way to confirm you are town

So we're in 2b

That means zenge is the vig and the jailkeeper should always be protecting him tonight

What is 2b?

I need to check how compatible genny is with wasp I’m hungover and catching up but I remember her also putting wasp in the same town read as Kitz at the start of the game I need to remind myself to get the context of that cause that’s unusual for a wolf early game to put 2 partners randomly there

Wasp voted to push genny over SAR in Eod. What do you think about that.

 

[GoSpursGo]

Clem/QQ/toby/rae. I think that's the POE.

If the vig reveals themselves, and we protect them tonight, we'll get 2 shots tomorrow and should almost certainly hit a wolf if we go after that list.

We are at 10/2. If we preserve the vig and miss, this would be the progression to parity:

10/2, misyeet/NK-->8/2, misyeet, NK, mis-vig-->5/2, misyeet, NK-->3/2, misyeet-->wolf win

So we would need to miss 5 times consecutively to lose the game

If vig doesn't reveal and gets NK'd, then here is the progression to parity:

10/2, misyeet/NK-->8/2, misyeet/NK-->6/2, misyeet/NK-->4/2, misyeet/NK-->wolf win

So we only get to miss 4 times consecutively to lose the game if the vig dies tonight.

So I would say the vig should probably reveal themselves as it gives us an extra shot.

 

[GoSpursGo]

Clem/QQ/toby/rae. I think that's the POE.

If the vig reveals themselves, and we protect them tonight, we'll get 2 shots tomorrow and should almost certainly hit a wolf if we go after that list.

We are at 10/2. If we preserve the vig and miss, this would be the progression to parity:

10/2, misyeet/NK-->8/2, misyeet, NK, mis-vig-->5/2, misyeet, NK-->3/2, misyeet-->wolf win

So we would need to miss 5 times consecutively to lose the game

If vig doesn't reveal and gets NK'd, then here is the progression to parity:

10/2, misyeet/NK-->8/2, misyeet/NK-->6/2, misyeet/NK-->4/2, misyeet/NK-->wolf win

So we only get to miss 4 times consecutively to lose the game if the vig dies tonight.

So I would say the vig should probably reveal themselves as it gives us an extra shot.

Also, having 4 or 5 chances before we lose is honestly a great spot to be in with a relatively small POE, IMO, unless we are indeed dealing with a deepwolf. And even then we've got a bunch of chances to catch them, and I didn't account for our jailer potentially seering for us.

 

[samac]

Clem/QQ/toby/rae. I think that's the POE.

If the vig reveals themselves, and we protect them tonight, we'll get 2 shots tomorrow and should almost certainly hit a wolf if we go after that list.

We are at 10/2. If we preserve the vig and miss, this would be the progression to parity:

10/2, misyeet/NK-->8/2, misyeet, NK, mis-vig-->5/2, misyeet, NK-->3/2, misyeet-->wolf win

So we would need to miss 5 times consecutively to lose the game

If vig doesn't reveal and gets NK'd, then here is the progression to parity:

10/2, misyeet/NK-->8/2, misyeet/NK-->6/2, misyeet/NK-->4/2, misyeet/NK-->wolf win

So we only get to miss 4 times consecutively to lose the game if the vig dies tonight.

So I would say the vig should probably reveal themselves as it gives us an extra shot.

Hehe mechanical tomfoolery I love it.
I do think it is the best mechanical option.

Are you considering the vig shooting w villager in that math?

 

[GoSpursGo]

What is 2b?

It's the cell on page 1 that explains what PRs are in play. Town has an even night vig shot and a jailkeeper, along with the voyeur that died. Mafia has 2 goons that are left, along with the role cop that died.

 

[GoSpursGo]

Hehe mechanical tomfoolery I love it.
I do think it is the best mechanical option.

Are you considering the vig shooting w villager in that math?

Yes, that was what I meant by mis-vig 🙂

 

[_rae_]

Alright alright alright I shot wasp please don’t let me get night murdered lol

 

[samac]

Alright alright alright I shot wasp please don’t let me get night murdered lol

I AM SO PROUD OF YOU

 

[GoSpursGo]

Alright alright alright I shot wasp please don’t let me get night murdered lol

OMG I love this thread state

 

[samac]

AND IT WAS SOMEONE IN THE POE
THAT IS BEAUTIFUL

 

[GoSpursGo]

Alright alright alright I shot wasp please don’t let me get night murdered lol

So jailkeep, please target rae tonight 🙂

 

[samac]

So jailkeep, please target rae tonight 🙂

I promise she’ll make it to tomorrow 😉

 

[Kcalb]

a MAFIA goon??

I laughed out loud

I’m gonna scream was the pr claim a joke

I could say I always knew it, CUZ I DID AND THAT'S HILLAROUs

Do we? There's technically two cells that have a vig shot and a voyeur.

I didn't quite realize how early kcalb put a vote down on kitz. I also don't know if the bus/don't bus, politeness rules are the same across sites. I feel I know the least about kcalb, so they're in my POE. They're certainly not high on my list though.

U've got a shot who are you killing nownow

 

[_rae_]

So jailkeep, please target rae tonight 🙂

YES PLEASE JAILKEEP

 

[samac]

WAIT A SECOND YOU SHOT WASP AND BLOCCED DUBZ BEFORE ME
I. AM. OFFENDED. AGAIN.

 

[_rae_]

U've got a shot who are you killing nownow

Hahahahaha the timing on this one

 

[_rae_]

WAIT A SECOND YOU SHOT WASP AND BLOCCED DUBZ BEFORE ME
I. AM. OFFENDED. AGAIN.

YES BECAUSE YOU SQUINT AT ME NONSTOP FOR ME JUST BEING ME YOUVE ONLY CAUGHT ME AS A WOLF ONCE BECAUSE IVE ONLY BEEN A WOLF ONCE

 

[Kcalb]

So we don’t know if they got a check on a vig or a jail keeper last night. A cop role is actually silent. So if they know who the vig is they’re dead tonight. If they know who the jail keeper is it doesn’t matter, they’re dead tonight if we don’t get a wolf today, they might protect themselves if they do and we have the vig shot tomorrow.
I dunno
Sometimes I like getting into mechanical weeds a little

Maybe they dont know either the vig nor the jailkeeper

*Copium*

I have to admit Im not the best at making mech analysis/finding the best play but Ill trust you

 

[_rae_]

Okay, now that that’s all cleared up I have school work to do I’ll be back later

 

[samac]

YES BECAUSE YOU SQUINT AT ME NONSTOP FOR ME JUST BEING ME YOUVE ONLY CAUGHT ME AS A WOLF ONCE BECAUSE IVE ONLY BEEN A WOLF ONCE

I HAVENT PUSHED YOU ONE BIT I SQUINTED ONCE EARLY ON MAAM PLS

 

[toberto]

This is what I flagged as the main arguments in favor of you:




I sort of feel like it boils down to whether you're being pocket-y with zenge, the push on kitz and if it was genuine, and the substance to your read on genny.

I also think the progression on Wasp was a good point by samac.

I don’t even feel like I’ve interacted with Zenge much after finding his slot comfortable initially and then his pr claim made me feel more comfortable about it d2 lol. I’ve paid a lot more attention to other slots

I actually thought I helped sway Santy towards Kitz rather than Clem or Sars.

I’ve questioned genny directly to understand her posts and brought up her pairing with klitz. She had an awkward town read of her and excuse as to why. I don’t think that lacks substance and I’m not sure how the votes swayed off her last eod of day

I floated the idea of wasp and tested the votes if they would get any traction or if anyone would come to their defence rather than being complacent and sticking on genny the whole time. I think my progression shows I had more weight against genny. Wasps handling of klitz slot was odd considering they were partners and I raised that just before my vote

 

[toberto]

Maybe I’m too hungover but I feel like my names been forced out with forced reasonings

Is it because I said I was a scary wolf

I’m struggling to follow

 

[Kcalb]

we'll get 2 shots tomorrow and should almost certainly hit a wolf if we go after that list.

Sorry got lost, you mean the yeet + the vig?

Alright alright alright I shot wasp please don’t let me get night murdered lol

HOLY ****

The ****ING goat

 

[Kcalb]

I laughed out loud


I could say I always knew it, CUZ I DID AND THAT'S HILLAROUs


U've got a shot who are you killing nownow

This is quite hillarious, she indeed had a shot MAJALSBSKSN

 

[GoSpursGo]

Sorry got lost, you mean the yeet + the vig?

Correct 🙂

 

[genny]

I’m not sure how the votes swayed off her last eod of day

I’m a slippery little eel

 

[Kcalb]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Im still unsure of the revealing but its done now lol

 

[Kcalb]

It shouldnt be a spurs/samac pairing tho so I will trust the process

Im going to work catching up later darlings

 

[toberto]

Alright alright alright I shot wasp please don’t let me get night murdered lol

I knew I could trust my d1 town read of you for that reads list lol