The most important objective predictor is AOA status?

[Miami_sofia]

Reading something about PD which stated "If your school offers AOA honor status and you’re a member, your match rate is excellent (97% in one survey). Your odds of matching at all drop 20% and matching into plastic surgery drop 47% if you are not a member. " These numbers seems steep and was wondering how true this was?

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[12floz]

This is not a difficult thing to find out for yourself.

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Charting-Outcomes-in-the-Match-2018-Seniors.pdf

65/(65+3)=95.5%
69/(69+19)=78.4%
Overall match rate from Charting Outcomes = 156 / (156+26) = 85.7%
Yes, a posteriori, AOA basically guarantees you will match.
Nevertheless, more people without AOA match than those with AOA.

Gleam from this what you will.

 

[Stagg737]

This is not a difficult thing to find out for yourself.

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Charting-Outcomes-in-the-Match-2018-Seniors.pdf
View attachment 240710
65/(65+3)=95.5%
69/(69+19)=78.4%
Overall match rate from Charting Outcomes = 156 / (156+26) = 85.7%
Yes, a posteriori, AOA basically guarantees you will match.
Nevertheless, more people without AOA match than those with AOA.

Gleam from this what you will.

Doesn't really prove much without knowing what the rest of the app for each group looks like. I'd guess those with AOA will on average have higher Steps, better class rank, more pubs, etc. than those without it. As an individual factor it doesn't seem to have much predictive power even in plastics if you look at the PD survey in which only 43% of PDs said it was considered when determining who to rank.

 

[12floz]

Doesn't really prove much without knowing what the rest of the app for each group looks like. I'd guess those with AOA will on average have higher Steps, better class rank, more pubs, etc. than those without it. As an individual factor it doesn't seem to have much predictive power even in plastics if you look at the PD survey in which only 43% of PDs said it was considered when determining who to rank.

You can not deny that, as I previously noted, a posteriori AOA bascially correlates to a 100% match rate. This is data from nearly everyone who matched in 2018 and is consistent across all charting outcomes published. Obviously there are many factors that contribute to one's application, but the OPs question was specifically directed to this question so I answered it.

 

[Stagg737]

You can not deny that, as I previously noted, a posteriori AOA bascially correlates to a 100% match rate. This is data from nearly everyone who matched in 2018 and is consistent across all charting outcomes published. Obviously there are many factors that contribute to one's application, but the OPs question was specifically directed to this question so I answered it.

That's all well and good, but looking at any independent variable in the match is a fool's errand (other than possibly Step 1 score correlating to ii's in specific fields), especially if that correlation offers little to no utility other than mental mast****tion.