The Typhoon Struggle Cometh

[Carol is Alpha]

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Dark clouds are on the horizon. This Wags/RA merger will not help the labor glut. I'm hearing some really bad numbers being bandied about.

 

[gwarm01]

Care to elaborate about the numbers? Mergers usually lead to layoffs. I hope people have backup plans.

 

[Carol is Alpha]

I'm hearing 4 digits as for store closings.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

They've estimated upwards of 3,000 since last year.

 

[Carol is Alpha]

Looks like it will only take 500 store closings to get over the FTC hurdle, but that's not the real problem. Even after 500 are cut, there will be still too many stores cannibalizing each other's turf in many zip codes. That's when the private equity vultures will be proffered real estate deals. But what if they are no bids? The Blackrocks are divesting RE, not buying.

 

[WVUPharm2007]

I do wonder...for every Rite Aid that closes close to a Walgreens...how many CVSs will swoop in and try to get in on that real estate. Or will they just let it be.

 

[gwarm01]

They've estimated upwards of 3,000 since last year.

Wow, that's kind of incredible.
Can existing stores just absorb that increased business? You would hope they would hire more staff to cover the increased workload, but I know that's just crazy talk.

 

[Gombrich12]

If the labor market is going to crash I rather it happen now than 5 years later. I know applications are still dropping big time at pharmacy schools, if this merger goes through expect another strong slide in applications.

 

[Carol is Alpha]

http://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/apr/13/how-boots-went-rogue

 

[catalyzt]

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...dent-pharmacists-letter-edited-by-head-office

I'm not surprised by this.

 

[gwarm01]

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...dent-pharmacists-letter-edited-by-head-office

I'm not surprised by this.

They incorrectly refer to capsules as tablets. This publication has lost all credibility in my eyes!

 

[Carol is Alpha]

http://nypost.com/2016/06/09/signs-point-toward-ftc-approving-walgreens-rite-aid-merger/

"Meanwhile, Walgreen’s within a few days is expected to announce the beginning of a process to divest stores in regions where the chains may have too much overlap, a source close to the situation said."

http://www.businessfinancenews.com/29270-ftc-might-reject-walgreens-bootsrite-aid-merger-heres-why/

"However, in order to get the FTC’s approval, Walgreen, within next few days, will announce the start of a process where the company will divest stores in regions where the two pharmacies already have too much overlap. In areas where the two are common and have intense competition, Walgreen would either have to close or will sell some stores to its rival."

 

[WVUPharm2007]

An enterprising pharmacist could make some money opening an independent inside the vacuum that will be created.

 

[Carol is Alpha]

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...eutsche+Bank+(MCK)+(ESRX)+(ABC)/11830950.html

Doesn't look like a merger is being priced in if you look at what the stocks are doing.

 

[Carol is Alpha]

http://www.chaindrugreview.com/report-wba-ftc-talks-gaining-steam/

The last paragraph: "Mushkin added that the FTC may decide to require WBA to divest more stores than it expected in the acquisition deal. “If there is a viable purchaser for a good number of the divested stores, this could be the path of least resistance and would still likely create some benefits, assuming the number of stores divested is not too great,” he wrote. “We would further note that if this were indeed an avenue, and store divestitures were above the threshold, it would likely mean WBA would pay less for Rite Aid.”

 

[Carol is Alpha]

So now the number is greater than 500 but still under a 1000? Yeah, right. Don't be shocked if the real number is way over 1000 when this all plays out. They will soft-pedal this as much as possible to hide the real number divested for as long as possible.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Walgreens+Boots+(WBA)+Updates+on+Rite+Aid+(RAD)+Deal;+Sees+Increased+Divestitures/12013044.html

http://www.seattletimes.com/busines...=RSS&utm_medium=Referral&utm_campaign=RSS_all

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinna...uld-be-looking-to-snap-up-walgreens-rite.html

 

[Carol is Alpha]

http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2016/09/at_least_one_staten_island_wal.html

http://www.investopedia.com/news/seeking-buyer-650-walgreens-stores-wba/

 

[Carol is Alpha]

Uh-oh. This isn't good.
https://supplier.community/walgreens-needs-to-sell-650-stores-but-no-ones-biting/

http://nypost.com/2016/09/27/firms-are-passing-up-chance-to-buy-650-walgreens-amid-merger/

http://seekingalpha.com/news/3211277-pe-firms-snooze-650-unit-walgreens-sale

My God! There are no bids.

 

[gwarm01]

Who would they even expect to buy them?

 

[WVUPharm2007]

Who would they even expect to buy them?

"Who wants these locations we don't want or are too close to one of our current locations for us to want them?"

CVS is going to wind up buying some of them for rock bottom prices as it approaches the 11th hour...watch.

 

[Carol is Alpha]

Can we this becoming a trend? As governments with unfunded pensions look for a pound of flesh.
http://www.chron.com/news/article/H-E-B-Walgreens-file-suit-against-Jefferson-9968818.php

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/1...mtyp=cur&referer=https://t.co/djjQPHNRKk&_r=0

 

[Carol is Alpha]

Besides a drug store bubble we also have a grocery store bubble.

http://www.wtae.com/news/save-a-lot-grocery-stores-being-sold/42136340

I remember Sav-a-lot's website would showcase their pharmacies. Not anymore. The parent Supervalu has this whopper of a page.
http://supervalu.com/stores/in-store-pharmacy.html

I feel for those poor souls working there. The PE vultures will be ruthless.

 

[Carol is Alpha]

Here's Why Walgreens' $9.4 Billion Deal to Buy Rite Aid Is in Jeopardy

http://fortune.com/2016/10/19/walgreens-rite-aid-3/


http://nypost.com/2016/10/18/kroger-slowly-backing-away-from-walgreens-rite-aid-merger/
The country’s largest supermarket chain came along after several private equity firms had passed on buying the locations — determining they were too spread out geographically and not of a critical mass to profitably compete, sources said.

 

[Carol is Alpha]

http://nypost.com/2016/10/20/the-ftc-is-struggling-to-get-walgreens-and-rite-aid-to-merge/

"The FTC’s recent retail failures give it reason to be cautious.

In January 2015, the regulatory agency allowed Albertsons to buy Safeway for $9.2 billion conditioned on the supermarket chain selling 146 Western stores to Haggen Holdings.

Within a year, the much smaller Haggen went bankrupt, and Albertson’s bought back 30 of the stores it had divested for $14 million.

That failure followed a similar case in 2012 when it cleared Hertz’s $2.3 billion merger with Dollar Thrifty provided that it sell the Advantage Rent A Car business to the much smaller Franchise Services of North America."

Nobody wants to admit the pink elephant of overcapacity will not be solved by divestment.

 

[Carol is Alpha]

And so it begins. The Great Pharmacy Unwind.

http://jacksonville.com/business/2016-10-27/winn-dixie-closing-pharmacies-six-jacksonville-stores

Darth Humilis Pigrities ( Humble Sloth) needs to post this on the pre-pharmer forum.

http://www.nbc-2.com/story/33495199/4-southwest-florida-winn-dixie-stores-to-end-pharmacy-services

http://www.theledger.com/news/20161027/winn-dixie-closes-5-pharmacies-in-polk-county

http://www.wftv.com/news/local/winn-dixie-stores-closing-across-florida/106759782

Winn Dixie Pharmacies Closing:
Doral, FL
Miami, FL
Lantana, FL
Tamarac, FL
Cocoa Beach, FL
Orlando, FL
Charlotte, NC
Murrells Inlet, SC

 

[dnp1123]

you can work really hard to make yourself standout because nothing is given out to you for free /s

 

[Carol is Alpha]

Internal Amazon documents reveal a vision of up to 2,000 grocery stores across the US

http://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-2000-grocery-stores-10-years-2016-10

How BP is safeguarding against future rivals like Amazon

https://www.marketingweek.com/2016/10/05/how-bp-is-safeguarding-against-future-rivals-like-amazon/


Get ready for change. It's coming the Digital Revolution, Global 3.0.

 

[wagrxm2000]

Not sure if anyone reads any of this person's threads but I'm curious if anyone actually clicks on these links or is he simply talking to himself.

 

[Hulkbuster333]

I do wonder...for every Rite Aid that closes close to a Walgreens...how many CVSs will swoop in and try to get in on that real estate. Or will they just let it be.

In my area, there is already a cvs almost right next to every Walgreens or Rite Aid.

 

[Carol is Alpha]

Swedish looks to close retail pharmacies
http://komonews.com/news/business/swedish-looks-to-close-retail-pharmacies

http://www.beckershospitalreview.co...-down-retail-pharmacies-4-things-to-know.html

 

[Carol is Alpha]

The bloodletting continues at Winn Dickie

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/consumer/os-winn-dixie-pharmacies-20161101-story.html


The stores are located at:
13200 E. Colonial Drive, Orlando
4686 E. Michigan St., Orlando
7053 Orange Blossom Trail, Orlando
951 W. S.R. 434, Longwood
7800 S. U.S. 17-92, Fern Park
1514 S. French Ave., Sanford
340 S. S.R. 434, Altamonte Springs.
The last of the pharmacies at those locations closed Tuesday.

Winn-Dixie operates 50 pharmacies at 63 stores in the Orlando area.

Winn-Dixie is also closing five pharmacies in the Lakeland area and six more in the Jacksonville region, according to reports from the Lakeland Ledger and Florida Times-Union newspapers.

Caldwell said they are put new shelving in the vacated space to offer more grocery products.

And there it is...like a pharmacy never existed.

Update: http://pilotonline.com/business/con...cle_3e08deb9-0ba3-57ec-b0db-c670e586c4c0.html