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Based on AAMC stats alone with a 3.2 and 27-29, your chance of acceptance is 26%. A 30-32 MCAT will give an acceptance rate of 39%. A 33-35, 51%.
So your MCAT obviously has a lot to do with your chances in the admissions process.
Doing the same with the GPA: 3.2-4/27-29: 26%, 3.4-6/27-29: 36%, 3.4-6/30-32: 56%
I think your MD chances hinge a lot on your GPA and MCAT score. If you really want a good shot at MD schools, you should figure out if it would be feasible to boost your GPA into the 3.4+ range. If not, you might consider going the DO route because of their grade replacement policy - quick way to get your GPA higher.
How many hours of clinical volunteering (not shadowing) do you have?
It's been my observation that adcomms will want to see consistent, excellent acadmic achievement for 1.5 to 2 years before they will have confidence in you, whereas yours will be of a year's duration. Your surest path to MD will be through an SMP, provided your grades continue to be excellent. There is a very good one in your state. It's also possible that you'd achieve the same consideration with another year of informal postbac coursework consisting of a lot off upper-level Bio and Biochem, along with a very-strong MCAT score.
For a more personal opinion on your situation, you might consider making a phone appointment with a med school dean of a few of your less-selective state schools and running your story by them for expert input. You might also check into the minimum MCAT score accepted by your in-state SMP.
Of course you'll list your intercollegiate athletics. The teamwork, dedication, sacrifice, and hard work this requires is a benefit to your application. The Bioethics Society involvement is another plus. You have a lot of good ECs, though it would help if you included the timeframe of involvement for all of them.
1) Such grade updates are helpful if adcomms on on the cusp about your application. They will not help if you don't meet minimum cutoffs with your application GPAs.1) I was thinking if I apply with a 3.2, I could at least update my primary and secondaries in late summer as well, and maybe have adcomms see consistent improvement. Thoughts?
2) As far as a time frame for my EC's, I do about 4-5 hours clinical volunteering a week (for about a year), with 3 hours of regular volunteering (about 2-3 years), and about 10 hours of research a week (little over a year). Most of my other EC's (fraternity life, intramurals, etc...) are about 1-2 hours a week.
3) Hypothetical example: my MCAT score I get back in March is once again in the 27-29 range...do I try and retake in May, because I know for people on the bubble like me, an early application gives us the best chance, or do I try and take again later in the summer?