Tier 1: the top 10-13 are in a class of their own, with the majority of students matching at places like "UCSF Internal Med", "Hopkins ENT", "MGH Opthal", "Orthopedics @ NYPH". the bottom 50% still get good residencies.
Tier 2: if u look at the #14-30 USNews match lists, there's less spectacular matches, but still a significant # of good residencies, i.e. "NYU Internal Medicine", "Orthopedics @ UCLA", "General Surgery @UAB", "Opthal @ wisconsin".
Tier 3: 30+, about 20% of the match looks really good, i.e. "Top 50 Hospital, Internal Med", "Orthopedics at any hospital", "Rads@N'Western", "Peds@UCSD"
These are general trends i've noticed, havent seen all the match lists. forgive me for making a lot of assumptions, i.e. top students choosing top specialties or top students at middle tier choosing U.NDakota Urology due to location, or something.
Bottom line:
If you graduate in the top 1/2 at a top 10ish school, you can pretty much chose whatever residency you want.
If you graduate in the top 1/3 at a middle school, you still have plenty of flexibility in terms of specialty and location.
If you graduate in the top 20% or AOA at a bottom school, you can probably match into most specialties, but perhaps not at your dream hospital.
of course, this all might be full of $hit