tougher match year ahead?

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The average USMLE score of people who matched into ophtho has increased 15 points over the last 6 years (213 - 228). The average USMLE score of unmatched applicants increased ten points (208 - 218) over just the past one year! With the move of many med students toward fields with good lifestyles, does anybody else think that the upcoming match is going to be the toughest in awhile?

So, who wants to make bets on the avg board scores for the upcoming app cycle? I'm guess the avg matching step score will be 231.

(And yes, I will do anything to avoid writing my personal statement.)

 

[Redhawk]

If I remember correctly, the average score actually decreased by one last year versus the previous year... not that that means anything 🙂

 

[GeddyLee]

The number of applicants was the same over the past couple years also if I remember correctly. Furthermore, I think USMLE grades have steadily risen ever since the introduction of computerized testing, which may account for the increasing average USMLE scores.

It's a tough match (obviously), but I don't think there's any indication that the coming year will be any more difficult than previous years.

 

[golgi]

I think this ridiculous jump in the unmatched board score rate may be that more people with higher board scores are going unmatched. Everyone I have spoken to says that board score and AOA is just one piece of the puzzle - with the interview being the most important...just my thoughts

 

[Eyesore]

6 or 7 years ago, the mean USMLE score was around 210-212, what is the mean now? Back then, a 250 was 99th percentile (not just 99 2-digit score). What is the percentile on a 250 now?

Just as Geddy said, I don't think the scores are really that comparable now after the new computer testing was implemented.

 

[Jaded Soul]

6 or 7 years ago, the mean USMLE score was around 210-212, what is the mean now? Back then, a 250 was 99th percentile (not just 99 2-digit score). What is the percentile on a 250 now?

Just as Geddy said, I don't think the scores are really that comparable now after the new computer testing was implemented.

The mean for last year's Step 1 was 217 with a standard deviation of 24 according to my score report. I believe that makes a 250 around the 95th percentile, but I can't find the link to the z-table I used to calculate it.

 

[DrDre']

250= just under 93%
Amazing what is happening with MLE scores...

 

[Morton]

The mean for last year's Step 1 was 217 with a standard deviation of 24 according to my score report. I believe that makes a 250 around the 95th percentile, but I can't find the link to the z-table I used to calculate it.

I figured this out a while back using a z-table:

P / Z / X

0.5 / 0 / 217
0.26 / 0.65 / 232.6
0.2 / 0.85 / 237.4
0.1 / 1.28 / 247.7
0.089 / 1.35 / 249.4
0.081 / 1.4 / 250.6
0.061 / 1.55 / 254.2
0.05 / 1.645 / 256.5
0.025 / 1.96 / 264
0.01 / 2.326 / 272.8
0.005 / 2.575 / 279


By the way, anyone know where to find info on good prelim programs?

 

[Light]

I think two standard deviations above the mean would put somebody at about the 97.5 percentile, however, this is assuming it is a normal gaussian distribution. I'm uncertain if the usmle peeps ever reported what the test-taker distribution is like, hence, being given a mean w/sd's doesn't necessarily allow us to estimate a percentile...the distribution could be skewed left or right.

As for prelim programs, it's probably best to find out information via word of mouth from people who recently interviewed in locations that you're considering.

 

[GeddyLee]

I've heard, though I don't remember where, that the distribution of USMLE score was skewed to the left a bit...I don't know how much.

BTW, the folks who took step I this year had an average of like 221. Sounds like the test is becoming less difficult, probably thanks to first aid and the like, since scores have steadily risen. I think this is a good argument to start reporting percentile again, otherwise it will hard to compare scores across a 2-3 year period. When I took the exam, 221 was pretty good and above average.

 

[Morton]

I think two standard deviations above the mean would put somebody at about the 97.5 percentile, however, this is assuming it is a normal gaussian distribution. I'm uncertain if the usmle peeps ever reported what the test-taker distribution is like, hence, being given a mean w/sd's doesn't necessarily allow us to estimate a percentile...the distribution could be skewed left or right.

As for prelim programs, it's probably best to find out information via word of mouth from people who recently interviewed in locations that you're considering.

Good point -- forgot about the gaussian thing.