Use your MD/PhDs brains....

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gbwillner

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...To create a more "scientific" BCS bowl system.

Thanks to GWD's recent rants, I have been emboldened to start a non-"how-do-I-get-into-MSTP" thread.

Rules/difficulty:
1. No playoffs.

The results of this thread may be published in an angry letter to ESPN.

/ Enjoy!

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I kind of like the playoff system actually, where you take, let's say the teams ranked 1 through 5. You then guarantee 1 additional spot to each of the Division 1A conferences (except independent). This would be a total of 16 teams.

(ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Conf-USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Pac-10, SEC, Sun Belt, and WAC.)

This would also give the small conference teams a real shot at making it big every year.

I would also limit the number of teams from each conference in the playoffs to two. Then, if a conference has more than 1 team in the top 5, a Division 1-AA team would then have the opportunity to play for the title (by vote, overall ranking, or some defined method). An example of such a team would be Appalachian State or any of the Ivies.

In doing so, you would have 1 round of playoffs. This would narrow the list down to 8 teams. These 8 teams would then play in each of the four bowls (Rose, Cotton, Orange, Fiesta). The remaining 4 teams then head to the BCS bowl stadium. Three more games would be played on this turf to result in one national champion.

I just think this method would be a fun way to get small schools national attention. It works so well for the NCAA basketball tournament too.
 
I like not having a playoff. It makes every week important, versus NFL where you know you can go about .500 and still get in the playoffs most years. As a student at a major football school, it made every home game weekend a really fun, exciting time.

If you went to a playoff system, you basically have the NFL with college teams. At least NCAA basketball playoffs are a bit different than the NBA system, giving some distinction between the two. I recognize why people want a playoff, but I think there would definitely be some major downfalls to it that people don't consider.
 
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I like not having a playoff. It makes every week important, versus NFL where you know you can go about .500 and still get in the playoffs most years. As a student at a major football school, it made every home game weekend a really fun, exciting time.

If you went to a playoff system, you basically have the NFL with college teams. At least NCAA basketball playoffs are a bit different than the NBA system, giving some distinction between the two. I recognize why people want a playoff, but I think there would definitely be some major downfalls to it that people don't consider.


If you have to be in the top 5 in the country or ranked 1 (or 2 if another team in your conference is in the top 5) in your conference, every game still matters. How else are you going to get into the playoff?
 
I like not having a playoff. It makes every week important, versus NFL where you know you can go about .500 and still get in the playoffs most years.


The idea of games not mattering too much still occurs for many teams. You can go about .500 and still get into the Toilet Bowl.

Also, think about this - only the teams consistently ranked in the Top 25 (preferably the top 10) really have a shot at the national title. If you had to win your conference or be in the top 5 to claim a spot, that would make the prospect very challenging. It's really no different than the Rose Bowl, for example - winner of the Pac-10 and winner of the Big Ten. I also think it would be really cool to see a lesser known team receive national attention every year.

This is coming from someone who also goes to a pretty big football school. :)
 
I'm still not getting any "scientific" ideas here....

My problem:
The current system is horribly biased. Teams start week 1 ranked- without having played a single game. These ranking are 100% subjective, based on absolutely no record of play. Subsequent rankings are based on the teams of the original list losing and falling off the rankings. For example, if Ohio State is ranked #1 preseason, they almost universally remain #1 until they lose. The only (rare) exception to this would be a horrible performance that results in a win against a horrible team. If the press had thought at the beginning of the year that Utah was going to be a good team and ranked them #1 (or 2,3,4,5...) preseason, then they would have played in the BCS championship game since the heaviest weight on the BCS score is the Coaches' Poll, and they would only have moved up the scale.
Another problem with this "preseason" ranking is that even if you are WAY OFF on the preseason rankings, beating a bad "ranked" team can significantly affect your outcome. An example of this would be #2 Georgia beating #15 Arizona State at the beginning of the year. Arizona State was TERRIBLE this year, finishing 5-7 on the year. However, Georgia is fueld by beating a quality (ranked) opponent, even though in hindsight they were not worthy of that rank. Wether a team is ranked at the end of the season or the beginning, it doesn't really seem to matter.
It was obvious this year that there was no way any team from any conference outside the SEC and Big 12 had any reasonable chance at the title game, making the system inherently flawed and unfair. When the pudits talk about how these were the two best conferences, they have very little if any evidence to base that on other than their own biases. Those two conferences in particular benefited the most from intentionally setting up their schedules in a particular way- the "good" teams in those conferences tended start the season against Div 2A schools, then schedule the poorest teams in their own divisions before playing another "top" team. This gave the appearance of "quality" to the Big 12 with 4 undefeated teams after 5 weeks, and 3 undefeated teams after 7 weeks, ensuring they would all be in the top 10 without defeating a single decent opponent. Texas Tech was the best example- they were 8-0 when they played Texas, their only really good win all year. At the time they were ranked #7, despite beating only two other team who would even play in a Bowl game- 8-5 Kansas and 9-4 Nebraska. Here was their schedule until the texas game:
8/30 Eastern Washington 1-0 (0-0) W 49-24
9/06 @ Nevada 2-0 (0-0) W 35-19
9/13 Southern Methodist 3-0 (0-0) W 43-7
9/20 Massachusetts 4-0 (0-0) W 56-14
10/04 @ Kansas State 5-0 (1-0) W 58-28
10/11 Nebraska 6-0 (2-0) W 37-31 OT
10/18 @ Texas A&M 7-0 (3-0) W 43-25
10/25 @ No. 23 Kansas 8-0 (4-0) W 63-21
11/01 No. 1 Texas 9-0 (5-0) W 39-33

The current system does a good job of ranking teams WITHIN a conference. This is because they almost always play each other, so you get a good sense of how they stack up. However, there is really no way to compare the quality between conferences, since there are very few out-of-conference games to help make that assessment. This is compounded by conferences like the SEC and Big 12 that play NON BCS (actually non division) schools to artificially inflate their record....
 
Ranking schools is "scientific" in a way. Pundits look at all the evidence, have a (non uniform) method of objectively comparing programs, and predict the outcome (i.e., "rank"). The experiment is when schools play, and the outcome provides feedback to the AP, BCS Computers, and Coaches' Poll (the "scientists") about the accuracy of their hypotheses.

The question is, how can they do this better- and more in accordance with the scientific method?
 
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