USMLE World and Step II, 100 Cases

This forum made possible through the generous support of SDN members, donors, and sponsors. Thank you.

bluntdissector

Full Member
10+ Year Member
15+ Year Member
Joined
Aug 20, 2008
Messages
313
Reaction score
5
Hi.

I'm double posting this as since a search for 'usmle world step II' is likely to point to the VERY long thread, where this post will get lost, and I felt people might want to have easier access to this! Especially since that particular thread has grown SO long that people tend not to want to look past the current page...This summarizes the data nicely.

I basically just worked backwards through the 'USMLE world scores and step II scores' thread until I had 100 people's scores:



Black dots = individual scores. Red = average score for given uworld score.
The formula for the trendline is provided, which (I suppose) could be used to calculate your score. I find the data quite interesting! Quite a strong correlation, and plenty of outliers! I mean someone got like 277 with a uworld score of 69%!

Members don't see this ad.
 

Attachments

  • uworld and step 2 - Copy.pdf
    53.2 KB · Views: 9,292
  • Like
Reactions: 2 users
DUDE!! SO FREAKING GRATEFUL!
I have been trying to remember what my average was for step 1 now that I am prepping for step 2 so thanks a bunch!
 
Members don't see this ad :)
have ppl noticed that this formula seems to predict their scores pretty well since bluntdissector made this graph?
 
Disclaimer: the following is obviously not meant to be serious.
How about another graph for the "unlucky" people like myself who will fall off 40-60 points of predicted regardless of how much I study or how well i do on uworld.
I multiply my score by the lucky factor of 0.75, each persons luck factor is different. Ask your mom what your luck factor is. it is really calculated on how much you fell when you were learning to walk. If you were previously struck by lighting your factor is about ~0.35 and even if you get 100% on uworld, good luck on passing that exam.

seriously though, why do I get the feeling this is overestimating?
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
amazingly enough this graph was right on for me 67%= 250 on the real thing
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
I have been tracking newer scores on this graph.. and bluntdissector did a scary good job @ keeping the predictions +/-3-4. Personally, I think we should continue adding more scores to this because that graph is onto something.

Is there anyway to turn it into a database, medfriends.com style?
 
I have been tracking newer scores on this graph.. and bluntdissector did a scary good job @ keeping the predictions +/-3-4. Personally, I think we should continue adding more scores to this because that graph is onto something.

Is there anyway to turn it into a database, medfriends.com style?

I was thinking this same thing. If this was 2nd semester and I didn't have anything to do I'd figure out a way to build a simple HTML program or something, but right now I don't have time time haha
 
I took a UW practice test and got 68.5% and it said that was only a 231. That's very different from what this graph suggests the score shuold be. Anyone have any thoughts on that?
 
I took a UW practice test and got 68.5% and it said that was only a 231. That's very different from what this graph suggests the score shuold be. Anyone have any thoughts on that?

The graph is supposed to predict your score based on the overall percent correct that you scored on the question bank, not what you get on one of the UW practice exams.
 
Members don't see this ad :)
I have been tracking newer scores on this graph.. and bluntdissector did a scary good job @ keeping the predictions +/-3-4. Personally, I think we should continue adding more scores to this because that graph is onto something.

Is there anyway to turn it into a database, medfriends.com style?

I think that, if everyone on SDN entered their data into medfriends, and if medfriends had a 'weighted' formula to emphasize recent scores, it should serve a the database you have in mind. It probably isn't worth creating another one - perhaps we shoudl rather use medfriends to its potential?

As much as I'd like to claim that there's something special about the graph, it only represents the scores of 100 SDNers (think I have their usernames) with a line (and formula) that best describes the data...:)

Medfriends probably has a much cooler formula!
 
I think that, if everyone on SDN entered their data into medfriends, and if medfriends had a 'weighted' formula to emphasize recent scores, it should serve a the database you have in mind. It probably isn't worth creating another one - perhaps we shoudl rather use medfriends to its potential?

As much as I'd like to claim that there's something special about the graph, it only represents the scores of 100 SDNers (think I have their usernames) with a line (and formula) that best describes the data...:)

Medfriends probably has a much cooler formula!

Interestingly enough both formulas both predict the same exact score for me at this point haha.
 
Got my score today
USMLE World overall average: 67% (mostly random, tutorial), start doing timed, random at the end was scoring low 70s
Actual step 2 CK: 197

I had the same problem on step 1, but my score wasnt that bad. I also knew the content of almost every question in the exam, didnt find it difficult except with timing issues.
I guess that is life? this one is hard to swallow. my friend with the same usmle world score scored over 250.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
Got my score today
USMLE World overall average: 67% (mostly random, tutorial), start doing timed, random at the end was scoring low 70s
Actual step 2 CK: 197

I had the same problem on step 1, but my score wasnt that bad. I also knew the content of almost every question in the exam, didnt find it difficult except with timing issues.
I guess that is life? this one is hard to swallow. my friend with the same usmle world score scored over 250.

If this is any consolation, I got my score too today, appeared on the 11th and have the same experience. My test crashed twice, they had to shift me to another test station and I got this scripting error too once after that.:mad: My cumulative UW avg., timed and random was in the 80's, scored a 800 on the UW simtest. I was expecting a 270+ but what I get is a 250+. I don't know if the NBME has gone bonkers or have I gone nuts. I know some people will think I have nothing to complain about but seriously the amount of effort I put in should count for something. I don't know, either I seriously need to evaluate my knowledge base or NBME seriously ****ed something up.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
If this is any consolation, I got my score too today, appeared on the 11th and have the same experience. My test crashed twice, they had to shift me to another test station and I got this scripting error too once after that.:mad: My cumulative UW avg., timed and random was in the 80's, scored a 800 on the UW simtest. I was expecting a 270+ but what I get is a 250+. I don't know if the NBME has gone bonkers or have I gone nuts. I know some people will think I have nothing to complain about but seriously the amount of effort I put in should count for something. I don't know, either I seriously need to evaluate my knowledge base or NBME seriously ****ed something up.
250+ is very good score, no one can deny that. I am sure you deserved 279, but nothing really wrong with any score over 240.
with mine, I scored bellow my pre-study nbme and that is the most difficult part about all this.
We still got step 3, want to take that thing before graduation if possible.
 
this formula said 267. medfriends said 270 +/- 11. NBME 2 one week out said ">268". Real deal = 274.
 
this formula said 267. medfriends said 270 +/- 11. NBME 2 one week out said ">268". Real deal = 274.

I'm sure you don't mind the prediction error given your score! In fact, you probably don't mind anything. You have 270+ induced insensitivity to everything. (TSPIIE)

:thumbup:
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
The formula was 25-30 points off in the wrong direction for me. Of course the same thing happened to me with Step 1. Whatever.

One problem with this formula is the reporting bias. People will tend to post their scores if their high, but people who have lower scores will tend not to share their scores and experiences as much. The data will be skewed to favor higher scores, which probably doesn't match reality. So use with caution.
 
Last edited:
The formula was 25-30 points off in the wrong direction for me. Of course the same thing happened to me with Step 1. Whatever.

One problem with this formula is the reporting bias. People will tend to post their scores if their high, but people who have lower scores will tend not to share their scores and experiences as much. The data will be skewed to favor higher scores, which probably doesn't match reality. So use with caution.

Absolutely.

Granted, it's on SDN, which is already a self selected group of obsessive compulsive ultra-competitive 4th graders with encyclopedic memories and a strange love for traditional Kiwi music.

Nevertheless, there will be a big bias. :)
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 user
I tend to think this model loses it predictive value if you've used USMLE World during third year hardcore.

My stats:
77% on UWorld (100% complete)
251/99 on Step 2 CK

The line graph predicts me to be at 270... :laugh: LOL, I wish.

For current MS3's, I think the big question to ask yourselves is which is more important to you: 1) Acing shelf exams in MS3 to get the MS3 grades you want, or 2) saving it all for Step 2 CK to rock that instead. Probably can't have the second one without the other. I think if you know you'll be taking Step 2 CK later in 4th year (i.e. Step 2 CK won't be life or death for you), go ahead and buy USMLE World for 3rd year and smash your shelf exams.
 
My average was 73% (timed, unused), so ~263 as predicted by this formula, actual score 264!

Interestingly I used another formula (UW avg x 2.3 + 84) for step 1 which predicted ~261 (avg of 77%, timed unused) and actual score was 261!

Btw, NBME forms underpredicted by around 10-20 points for both steps.
 
How are people calculating their uworld %'s? I mean if you do them untimed, timed, and unused vs used will give you so many different total %'s. I was doing constantly timed unused questions and my % was not going up very much even though I was constantly improving. So I do not put much faith in the overall % score reported by uworld.
 
Just wanted to point out that there is a thread right now in Step 1 forum where people are posting their UWorld percentage, using the Step 1 formula for UWorld to post predicted score, and posting their actual scores.

So far, the Step 1 formula is pretty accurate.

Lettuce sea if this formula is accurate too. It seems that it might be.

UWorld is turning out to be quite a gem!
 
Just wanted to point out that there is a thread right now in Step 1 forum where people are posting their UWorld percentage, using the Step 1 formula for UWorld to post predicted score, and posting their actual scores.

So far, the Step 1 formula is pretty accurate.

Lettuce sea if this formula is accurate too. It seems that it might be.

UWorld is turning out to be quite a gem!

I somehow doubt that this one is correct. I'm hitting 70-75% on every block I do now. There's no way in hell I'll get a 260 or whatever. If I make a 215 I'll be extremely proud. 195 on Step 1.
 
I somehow doubt that this one is correct. I'm hitting 70-75% on every block I do now. There's no way in hell I'll get a 260 or whatever. If I make a 215 I'll be extremely proud. 195 on Step 1.

Are you doing them in tutorial mode? Time, untimed?

I remember my percentage definitely changed when I switched from tutorial to random, timed mode. Not sure if this is the case across the board for everyone.
 
Are you doing them in tutorial mode? Time, untimed?

I remember my percentage definitely changed when I switched from tutorial to random, timed mode. Not sure if this is the case across the board for everyone.

definitely for me too. even tutorial timed i'll do an average 5-10% better than timed.
 
UWorld 75%, the graph predicts 265. Real CK score 268. I am amazed. I looked at it before my test and thought 265, I wish . . .I am pleasantly surprised.
 
Good stuff! Can you maybe do another one, like a 3D graph where the "z" value would be time spent studying Uworld.

:D
 
UWorld 75%, the graph predicts 265. Real CK score 268. I am amazed. I looked at it before my test and thought 265, I wish . . .I am pleasantly surprised.

Exact same situation here; 75% on Uworld and scored 268. I felt like I completely bombed it walking out and was just hoping for anything over 250...really remarkable correlation
 
hi,
i'm planning to take the usmle step 2 ck exam in february and i have an average correct asnwer rate of around 75 percent.
what do you guys think ? would it be enough to pass ?
 
Another data point . . .

UWorld 72%, graph predicted 261, actual score 262! Accurate for me!
 
hi,
i'm planning to take the usmle step 2 ck exam in february and i have an average correct asnwer rate of around 75 percent.
what do you guys think ? would it be enough to pass ?


Did you honestly not even take the time to read the post DIRECTLY above your own?
 
Does anyone think that all you need is to answer 70% of the questions on Step 2 correctly in order to get a 250-260?

Or is it a factor of improving on your mistakes and then capitalizing on that?
 
thanks! helpful stuff :)

anyone try using the kaplan step II questions? I've used up most of my Uworld Q's during MS3 and kinda regret it...I need a Qbank for step II studying!
 
Received my Step2CK score today. 261/86. I was around 79% correct on UWORLD Qbank for Step2CK(It was also my second time through it). Seems like the curve is pretty accurate.
 
Did the graph disappear?

I wanted to take a quick look at it and see what my range was... scoring 71% second time through Uworld.
 
*sigh*.

Anyone think the correlation is still strong as of now, meaning 2 years later?[/QUOTE

Why dont you check it out yourself ? Go the UWorld and Step 2 scores thread and just pick the last 50 scores or something and see how it looks.
would be a good idea, had I had more time and my exam been not 3 weeks away
 
Top