What are my chances of getting in post-interview?

[basketball]

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Hey everyone,

I interviewed at Dartmouth, Boston and Maryland this cycle, and I'm wondering what my chances are at this point?

I just had Dartmouth and Boston in the last week. I had my Maryland interview in mid December.

Thank you everyone!!!

 

[OrangeandMaroon]

Hey everyone,

I interviewed at Dartmouth, Boston and Maryland this cycle, and I'm wondering what my chances are at this point?

I just had Dartmouth and Boston in the last week. I had my Maryland interview in mid December.

Thank you everyone!!!

IS OOS
Dartmouth 31:9 608:260
Boston 146:66 978:440
Maryland 310:208 284:136
(interviewed:accepted)

 

[gettheleadout]

Thread title begins with "What are my chances..." but was not posted in the "What Are My Chances" forum. 😕

 

[Buttermellow]

Thread title begins with "What are my chances..." but was not posted in the "What Are My Chances" forum. 😕

Ha! 👍

 

[YouNeverKnow22]

Thread title begins with "What are my chances..." but was not posted in the "What Are My Chances" forum. 😕

how much do you love regulating threads? I'd say a lot

 

[Narmerguy]

how much do you love regulating threads? I'd say a lot

He's got a good point though...

Although could make the argument that this question can extend beyond his personal situation and instead into the state of all applicants once they've reached the interview stage.

 

[gettheleadout]

how much do you love regulating threads? I'd say a lot

gettheleadout: Amateur Mod 😎


jk

 

[CaptainZappo]

IS OOS
Dartmouth 31:9 608:260
Boston 146:66 978:440
Maryland 310:208 284:136
(interviewed:accepted)

Where did you get this info? If at all possible, could you show me the post-interview numbers for Duke, UNC Chapel Hill, Wake Forest, and East Carolina?

I interviewed at those four this year but have already been rejected from UNC and East Carolina. Hoping for some love from Wake and/or Duke.

 

[Mbeas]

Where did you get this info? If at all possible, could you show me the post-interview numbers for Duke, UNC Chapel Hill, Wake Forest, and East Carolina?

I interviewed at those four this year but have already been rejected from UNC and East Carolina. Hoping for some love from Wake and/or Duke.

buy a copy of MSAR

https://services.aamc.org/publicati...1&cftoken=E3448935-969E-8995-B5B5920CF4A1A51E

 

[jazzhole]

It seems that by the numbers that OrangeandMaroon posted, you are extremely likely to get into a medical school even given a middling interview. According to my math, the chance that you will get into at least one medical school stands at 91%.

Math -

Di (Probability of Darthmouth in): .428
Do (Probability of Darthmouth out): .572
Bi (Probability of Boston in): .450
Bo (Probability of Boston out): .550
Mi (Probability of Maryland in): .479
Mo (Probability of Maryland out): .521

I basically added up all the chances that you'll get into one med school (and not get into the others), get into two med schools (and not get into the others), get into all three med schools, and not get into all three.

I am a nerd.

What's an easy way to do this with statistics? My multiply/add method seems really simplistic. Interestingly, it simplified to -

DiMo + BiDo + MiBo + BoDoMo

I'm no mathematician, but I think math is badass. Can someone explain this to me?

 

[Geneticist]

It seems that by the numbers that OrangeandMaroon posted, you are extremely likely to get into a medical school even given a middling interview. According to my math, the chance that you will get into at least one medical school stands at 91%.

You're considering that the interviews also went average. If the interviews went well, in theory, that number would be higher. If they didn't, it would obviously be lower.

So given that your interviews were average, you have a great shot at being accepted to at least one of the three.

 

[stormchao]

It seems that by the numbers that OrangeandMaroon posted, you are extremely likely to get into a medical school even given a middling interview. According to my math, the chance that you will get into at least one medical school stands at 91%.

Math -

Di (Probability of Darthmouth in): .428
Do (Probability of Darthmouth out): .572
Bi (Probability of Boston in): .450
Bo (Probability of Boston out): .550
Mi (Probability of Maryland in): .479
Mo (Probability of Maryland out): .521

I basically added up all the chances that you'll get into one med school (and not get into the others), get into two med schools (and not get into the others), get into all three med schools, and not get into all three.

I am a nerd.

What's an easy way to do this with statistics? My multiply/add method seems really simplistic. Interestingly, it simplified to -

DiMo + BiDo + MiBo + BoDoMo

I'm no mathematician, but I think math is badass. Can someone explain this to me?

I don't know about that.

I believe the situation is best represented by 2 outcomes. You get into no med schools, or you get into 1 or more med schools. We know this covers all possibilities, either you get in or you don't. P(rejected from all)+P(accepted to one or more) = 1

P(accepted to one or more) = 1 - P(rejected from all 3)

Since rejections are independent of each other we can just multiple all the possibilities of rejections, then this simplifies to

P(accepted to one or more) = =1-(0.572*0.55*0.521) = 83.6%

Much easier than your calculation.

 

[goldenwest]

This is silly. Statistics are not a good way to decide where you're going to get into school, who you're going to marry, or what you want to do for the rest of your life. You can't explain the world away with it. It's too complex.

 

[stormchao]

This is silly. Statistics are not a good way to decide where you're going to get into school, who you're going to marry, or what you want to do for the rest of your life. You can't explain the world away with it. It's too complex.

True, but statistics are good for figuring out if drug outcomes are significant so it is nice to have a basic understand of statistics and probability. I was merely pointing out a flaw in another posters logic, not trying to say that 83.6% is his absolute chance of getting in.

 

[jazzhole]

Wow. Duh. It's always so obvious after the fact haha.

🙂 I seem to do reasonably in other subjects but I must admit I am not particularly mathematically-minded. Forgive me.