That is a distinct and problematic outcome.
Private insurance companies typically base their rates off of the Medicare rate (set by the gov't...interpreted by CMS), so when the gov't decides to slash rates, private insurance follows. If you dig into the currently proposed structure of Obamacare you will find that, in general, generalist providers like PCPs and GPs may actually see a slight increase in reimbursements, while specialists will see their reimbursement continue to shrink. The problem with projecting out the direct impact on psychology is that we did not have a seat at the table when all of this was being set up, so it is still somewhat up in the air how much/little interaction and influence we will have with a typical ACO. We are very much playing catch-up, and we most likely will be beholden to ACOs for our patients. Being that a primary goal of an ACO is to minimize cost and maximize services, one of the easiest ways to keep costs down is to slash reimbursements. I don't have a crystal ball, but when HMOs were being pushed...they were using the same kind of logic that supporters of ACOs are using (lower costs, raise efficiency, etc), and we all know how well that turned out for providers.