What happens when the health care bubble explodes?

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Masticate3Xaday

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One of the biggest factors for exploding health care spending after paying for research and development of new medicines and technology are the costs of the workers themselves.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/the-health-care-employment-bubble/67920/#

http://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2009/05/12/beware-the-bursting-of-the-health-care-bubble/
Some loud and whispered voices in medicine will say…. "we are not like those finance guys. We deserve our money; after all, we do good". American medical advances unquestionably do save lives. But I argue that medicine is still a learned profession, indeed still a service profession, and should perform as such. Asking the government to throw a lot more money medicine's way in order to cover the uninsured is thinking like those in the failed financial sector. Comparative international experience shows that there is enough money already in our system to care for the basic medical needs of all of our people, if we spent it right. Government has a responsibility NOT to make the health care bubble even bigger. I believe that our long overdue Health System Reform must care for the basic healthcare needs of all of our people as a moral imperative derived from our national culture of common compassion. And, now is the time for those of us in the American medical profession to do our patriotic duty to rein in our many egregious and habit-addicted members and lead the rest of the bloated medical-industrial complex to cut back on its vast waste. We can help to get the US back on track economically to benefit us and our children's children. But let's beware of the inevitable collateral damage that will result from the bursting of this bubble, and re-valuation of the healthcare industry at 60% current expenditures, and let's prepare for it. Or, will we learn that the American Disease-Medical-Industrial Complex has really been largely a sophisticated "jobs program" all along, and cannot change now since the already high US unemployment rate would rapidly reach double digits?
George D. Lundberg MD, is former Editor in Chief of Medscape, eMedicine, and the Journal of the American Medical Association. Currently Distinguished Consultant, Physicians Advocates, Berkeley, CA and Consulting Professor, Stanford University School of Medicine.

So what happens if/when this bubble explodes? Physicians will weather the storm certainly better than other people in the industry such as nurses, pharmacists, etc., but pay cuts are inevitable. The costs are simply unsustainable. What happens to people after the bubble bursts that still have huge amounts of outstanding loans?
 
When the bubble bursts...you'll realize that the 1 Canadian student you made fun of in your classes probably has the most secure future out of your whole class.

In all seriousness, you're being over dramatic. The crash is blown out of proportion, and out of all the jobs and lines of work out there, physicians are one of the most secure with probably excellent pay still. The current healthcare spending is unsustainable for long term projections, changes will come...all will still be well. But changes aren't coming for a while...not with Repubs and Dems disagreeing on every single little point.
 
A large part of the healthcare bubble is US gov spending (medicare, medicaid, tricare, VA, fed employeee health insurance). When the healthcare bubble explodes, it will be part of a general US economic collapse.

"So what happens if/when this bubble explodes?"

hyperinflation, unemployment above 30%, rioting in the cities, martial law
 
One of the biggest factors for exploding health care spending after paying for research and development of new medicines and technology are the costs of the workers themselves.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/12/the-health-care-employment-bubble/67920/#

http://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2009/05/12/beware-the-bursting-of-the-health-care-bubble/


So what happens if/when this bubble explodes? Physicians will weather the storm certainly better than other people in the industry such as nurses, pharmacists, etc., but pay cuts are inevitable. The costs are simply unsustainable. What happens to people after the bubble bursts that still have huge amounts of outstanding loans?

The thing is, everyone complains about the waste in the system but then there are no specific plans on what to cut. Somehow, physician salaries enters the equation always but it accounts for what? 15% or less, I can't remember the statistic. That strategy would be like preparing for an exam and ignoring the 85% high yield material only to focus on the 15% minutia.

The US has the highest administrative costs in the world. Insurance companies and executives clean up in this system, as do all the R&D people.
 
Doctors just stop taking insurance - especially medicare - and start charging pure fee for service?
 
Thunderdome...that's what will happen.
 
Physicians will always have jobs (hopefully) since our numbers are well regulated, but what happens when the pool of labor for professions like RNs, PharmDs, PAs, NPs, etc. etc becomes so large that hospitals and health care networks no longer have to hire full times staffs and can just hire temp or part time workers to run their entire operation? That way they can save huge amounts of labor costs by not having to pay health insurance or retirement benefits. Having an unstable revolving door of temp or part-time care givers would most likely not be optimal for the patient, and even if physicians won't be plagued with labor surpluses, we should still at least care how labor surpluses in other domains affect patient care. All you hear about time after time is the impending shortage of workers in health care due to the rapidly aging baby boomer population. Is this actually true? Does anyone even ever bother to double check and triple check the facts? Why are nursing students and pharmD students starting to have a lot of trouble finding employment if there is indeed such a severe shortage? If or when this bubble bursts, wages will decline across the board, physicians included. The amount we are currently spending on health care is unsustainable. The biggest way to reduce health care costs is to cut labor costs. If you have a huge pool of workers you can easily do that by doing the temp or part time model and cutting out their health care and retirement benefit costs. I'm really curious as to what organizations are the ones beating the drums that we have a shortage of health care workers. Wouldn't be surprised at all if it is hospitals or business sides of health care networks, the ones that stand to save the most money if they can convince the public to supply them with an overabundance of cheap labor.
 
take a gun and blow my dick off
 
Sometimes I wonder if I should have gone into the funeral industry instead. You guys can deal with the huge mess in health care red tape and politics. I'll just get paid for taking away all the corpses of the "rapidly aging baby boomers" 😀
 
Physicians will always have jobs (hopefully) since our numbers are well regulated, but what happens when the pool of labor for professions like RNs, PharmDs, PAs, NPs, etc. etc becomes so large that hospitals and health care networks no longer have to hire full times staffs and can just hire temp or part time workers to run their entire operation? That way they can save huge amounts of labor costs by not having to pay health insurance or retirement benefits. Having an unstable revolving door of temp or part-time care givers would most likely not be optimal for the patient, and even if physicians won't be plagued with labor surpluses, we should still at least care how labor surpluses in other domains affect patient care. All you hear about time after time is the impending shortage of workers in health care due to the rapidly aging baby boomer population. Is this actually true? Does anyone even ever bother to double check and triple check the facts? Why are nursing students and pharmD students starting to have a lot of trouble finding employment if there is indeed such a severe shortage? If or when this bubble bursts, wages will decline across the board, physicians included. The amount we are currently spending on health care is unsustainable. The biggest way to reduce health care costs is to cut labor costs. If you have a huge pool of workers you can easily do that by doing the temp or part time model and cutting out their health care and retirement benefit costs. I'm really curious as to what organizations are the ones beating the drums that we have a shortage of health care workers. Wouldn't be surprised at all if it is hospitals or business sides of health care networks, the ones that stand to save the most money if they can convince the public to supply them with an overabundance of cheap labor.


your post clearly shows your ignorance.
1. No hospital would only hire temps to run everything. ever. That is pure garbage.
2. if a nurse has a problem finding a job it is because she/he is inflexible in where they would like to work. Not every nurse can be at the local children's hospital.
3. health care costs are not high due to labor costs. In fact if everyone only paid what medicare pays it wouldn't be expensive. But a hospital can only save so much money by cutting staff. Yes it is easy to start with that, trimming the fat in a bloated hospital, but that leads to other problems as well such as poorer patient care and the possibilty for lawsuits and mistakes for example.
A doctor cannot simply cut his office staff to save money because that means he/she would spend more time doing the things they were paid to do thus not allowing him/her to see as many patients.

costs in the health system is a very complicated topic. It's more than just doctors, health staff, hospitals, but also all the drug manufacturers, insurace companies, and all the people that work for them. Health care in the US is a huge chunk of the pie but that doesn't necessarily mean it is bad. The system can be made more efficient. Ineffective screening and exams can be done away with. Emergency rooms can be expanded and include more mid level positions to make it more effecient and safe. Tax incentives for people with healthy weights, getting their screening tests, seeing their PCP for problems not needed in the ED, etc.

I think a great part of the cost is from people who do nothing about their health care and then go to the ED and get admitted with no way of being able to pay for their care. These people are generally of lower socioeconomic status, lower education levels, etc. These are the people who keep coming back to the ED in acute CHF because they stopped taking their meds. There are ways to adress these issues not just in the health care field but from a broader social sense. Understand though that not everyone can be rich, smart, own a home, etc. There will always be poor people. There should also be a point at which a person needs to take responsibility for themselves. If that person who keeps coming in for CHF does so because he hasn't even tried getting a job, education, never went to essentially free followup appointments, that person should be turned away. Yes it sounds bad but there has got to be a point. But by then the person will have been set up by social work for jobs, education, f/u, calling to check in, etc and if that person then does absolutely nothing how is it fair to everyone else who tries their best to stay healthy and move up?
And then what about that person who gets sick and just goes straight to the ED? And be mindful their illness is not some acute condition. Then that person has no ability to pay. They go because it is free. Then what about all those unnecessary tests run for people with vague complaints. Drug seekers. Somatization disorder patients. The list goes on.

Unfortunately the reality is that there are some people who are abusing the system and hurting those who do not.
 
Walmart eliminates health care benefits for future part-time employees
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/arti... care benefits for future part-time employees

Wal-Mart is reducing the company’s expenses on healthcare by announcing on Thursday a series of changes that will affect future employees. The world’s largest retailer justified the changes to rising operating costs.


Among the highlights of the change is that future part-time employees who clock in less than 24 hours a week on average would no longer be given health insurance coverage. Those who would work from 24 to 33 hours a week could no longer include a spouse on their health plan, but they could still add their children.
 

good. It's time people start taking more responsibility for their own health care. An employer should not have to pay in any way for the health care of their workers if it does not want to. It can have the option to get good people to work there, yes, but why should a part time cashier at walmart get health care coverage from walmart, oh and include his/her spouse and children? ridiculous.

little do people know it's stuff like this that make goods more expensive. The costs are passed on to consumers. So if something like this bothers you, then you should be willing to pay a certain percentage more for items you are used to getting cheap.
 
good. It's time people start taking more responsibility for their own health care. An employer should not have to pay in any way for the health care of their workers if it does not want to. It can have the option to get good people to work there, yes, but why should a part time cashier at walmart get health care coverage from walmart, oh and include his/her spouse and children? ridiculous.

little do people know it's stuff like this that make goods more expensive. The costs are passed on to consumers. So if something like this bothers you, then you should be willing to pay a certain percentage more for items you are used to getting cheap.

walmart is notorious for treating its employees like absolute **** and you are an awful person who deserves a traumatic brain injury or something similar that only allows you to work as a part time cashier or in some other job where your chance of attaining health insurance is slim to none

do you really think that your lot in life was all your hard work? or do you think luck had something to do with it
 
walmart is notorious for treating its employees like absolute **** and you are an awful person who deserves a traumatic brain injury or something similar that only allows you to work as a part time cashier or in some other job where your chance of attaining health insurance is slim to none

do you really think that your lot in life was all your hard work? or do you think luck had something to do with it

typical liberal response. why don't you just give them more of your own money instead of forcing everyone to?
 
typical liberal response. why don't you just give them more of your own money instead of forcing everyone to?

Since when is wishing traumatic brain injury on a person a typical liberal response?

In any case, just keep wishing for that idealistic world you have up there in your mind's eye. The result is going to be you holding onto your ideals as 300+ million pissed off Americans take all your **** and pop a cap in your ass at any sign of resistance.

The haves having more and more will inevitably lead to the have-nots becoming the new haves, by force.
 
Since when is wishing traumatic brain injury on a person a typical liberal response?

In any case, just keep wishing for that idealistic world you have up there in your mind's eye. The result is going to be you holding onto your ideals as 300+ million pissed off Americans take all your **** and pop a cap in your ass at any sign of resistance.

The haves having more and more will inevitably lead to the have-nots becoming the new haves, by force.

I wasn't really referring to vor violent tendencies... but it appears that is kinda a theme running around here with all you mad libs... no pun intended.

I do not have an "idealistic world". It's actually the way things used to be. Asking for people (who are perfectly able) to take more responsibility for themselves is a problem with you people??? wow. no wonder the US is in so much financial trouble. Just give them taxpayer money. no taxes for them. Social security for all. Free health care for all. Homes and high paying jobs for everyone. Rich can pay more and more taxes! From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

Ha and then you all sit back and wonder why companies hire overseas, why unemployment is so high, and why our government is broke. fools.
 
And then what about that person who gets sick and just goes straight to the ED? And be mindful their illness is not some acute condition. Then that person has no ability to pay. They go because it is free. Then what about all those unnecessary tests run for people with vague complaints. Drug seekers. Somatization disorder patients. The list goes on.

Unfortunately the reality is that there are some people who are abusing the system and hurting those who do not.

You forgot to mention Medicare fraud - estimates range anywhere from 10-30% of all Medicare spending every year.
 
typical liberal response. why don't you just give them more of your own money instead of forcing everyone to?

you're such a socialist -- here's to hoping we can go back to the halcyon days of medicine before WWII when there was little government regulation of or pay to physicians and they had to fight for patients like starving dogs.

god bless free market capitalism!
 
A large part of the healthcare bubble is US gov spending (medicare, medicaid, tricare, VA, fed employeee health insurance). When the healthcare bubble explodes, it will be part of a general US economic collapse.

"So what happens if/when this bubble explodes?"

hyperinflation, unemployment above 30%, rioting in the cities, martial law

That's pretty much what I expect. At least as a physician I will have services I can offer my community in the event of the collapse of the government/economic system. Barring that, healthcare is still probably the safest bet you can take in terms of your future career - almost all other fields are unstable right now.
 
That's pretty much what I expect. At least as a physician I will have services I can offer my community in the event of the collapse of the government/economic system. Barring that, healthcare is still probably the safest bet you can take in terms of your future career - almost all other fields are unstable right now.

Defense contractors. Get a job of some sort working for an aerospace or defense contractor and you will never have to worry about job security. The military-industrial machine has just as much momentum and support as the healthcare complex.
 
Defense contractors. Get a job of some sort working for an aerospace or defense contractor and you will never have to worry about job security. The military-industrial machine has just as much momentum and support as the healthcare complex.
According to my friend at Northrop you are incorrect about job security.
 
According to my friend at Northrop you are incorrect about job security.

It does tend to be cyclical, but usually you can move around within the company, if you're willing to relocate. Most people in my industry wind up moving from company to company. Boeing -> Northrop -> Boeing -> Lockheed Martin -> Aerospace.
 
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