What is a lucky state?

[freak7]

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*sigh* I think we're beginning to talk past each other here. Plus I don't know where you're getting your stats from but I'm getting mine from MSAR.

Let's define "lucky state". Psicorps did this in the 2nd post of this thread. My definition of a lucky stats is one that highly favors IS vs OOS. The odds of someone from CT getting into a seat at U Conn is > 15%. the odds of someone from OOS getting in is < 1%. And Rutgers accepts OOsers in the single digits.

I don't care how many Nutmeggers or Garden Staters have to go OOS to med school. CT, NJ and WA are NOT CA. Hence, to me, they are lucky states. CA is not. VA (for VCU) or VT aren't either,
They are states where residents have a higher chance of getting accepted to medical school. They typically have a larger number of seats available for in-state students compared to the number of applicants they get. You can look at this table for data on each state.
https://www.aamc.org/download/321466/data/factstablea5.pdf

And c'mon, PossibleDOC I was discussing odds, period. Not the caliber of applicants, or applicant pools.

TBF UW seems to have a big discrepancy between the numbers for the same statistics that they report to AAMC. When you show the MSAR numbers to UWSOM staff, a lot of times the answer is "well those aren't the numbers that I've been shown" and you'll get blown off. For the life of me, I've never been able to reconcile two separate statistics for the same thing in the same year from different parts of the AAMC's tables/data for UW.

 

[efle]

TBF UW seems to have a big discrepancy between the numbers for the same statistics that they report to AAMC. When you show the MSAR numbers to UWSOM staff, a lot of times the answer is "well those aren't the numbers that I've been shown" and you'll get blown off. For the life of me, I've never been able to reconcile two separate statistics for the same thing in the same year from different parts of the AAMC's tables/data for UW.

I can think of many reasons for differences. MSAR counts submitted primaries, not apps that hit full completion, so they may see different total numbers. Matriculant vs accepted values are often different, mean vs median are often different, "instate" according to the MSAR is different from the WWAMI definition of instate used by UW, UW calculates GPA in a way that deviates significantly from AMCAS where they weight more recent semesters more heavily...

basically you can trust the MSAR 100% because it's not possible for the AAMC to get most of it wrong - it's their own AMCAS system they're pulling it straight from. However you might hear different values cited by UW people and they are legit too, just differently calculated.

 

[blackroses]

Still not that obvious to me that it's disproportionate favoritism. There were collectively 902 WA apps to U WA Med, and U WA undergrad produced 471 MD applicants. They should be taking up a majority of the interviews looking at those numbers.

Taking it further, in total the other members of WAMI produced 441 medical applicants last cycle. Even if every single one of them applied to U WA med, they'd be outnumbered just by the premeds from the U WA undergrad.

471 / (902 + 441) = approx 35% of applications to U WA med were from their own undergrad. Only 20% of U WA med matriculated class came from their own undergrad.

If anything it looks like they keep the level of inbreeding lower than would be appropriate!

Right, but things start to change when you bring into consideration the number of WAMI seats and the fact that those students couldn't have graduated from UW. A bit of quick math:

245 seats total - 110 WAMI seats = 135 seats that could possibly be populated by Washington state students
Now factor in the ~18 seats they award to OOR applicants each year, and you're at ~128 seats populated by Washington state students

Those 128 seats are the only ones that could possibly be populated by Washington state students, so even though the MSAR reports that 20% of their total 245 seats (which is 49 seats) are filled from their own undergraduate program, recognize that those 49 seats are actually closer to 40% of the seats (38% if you prefer exact numbers) that are actually available to Washington state students.

 

[efle]

Right, but things start to change when you bring into consideration the number of WAMI seats and the fact that those students couldn't have graduated from UW. A bit of quick math:

245 seats total - 110 WAMI seats = 135 seats that could possibly be populated by Washington state students
Now factor in the ~18 seats they award to OOR applicants each year, and you're at ~128 seats populated by Washington state students

Those 128 seats are the only ones that could possibly be populated by Washington state students, so even though the MSAR reports that 20% of their total 245 seats (which is 49 seats) are filled from their own undergraduate program, recognize that those 49 seats are actually closer to 40% of the seats (38% if you prefer exact numbers) that are actually available to Washington state students.

Ok so 20% / 40% = about half of the seats available for WA residents get filled by their own undergrad

471 / 902 = about half of the WA applications to the school come from their own undergrad

how is this disproportionate favoritism ??

 

[mwsapphire]

KS is a lucky state, as are MS, NM, OR, ND, SD, TN, GA, MO, MA, CT, NJ, AR, WA (for WWAMI), SC and a few others.

What makes you say MA?

 

[Lawpy]

What makes you say MA?

Yeah i doubt MA is a lucky state. Applicants and matriculants there have strong LizzyM scores.

 

[efle]

Goro defines "lucky" as "their state school draws very heavily from instate." U of Mass fits this, they were 95% populated by instate residents last cycle. Personally I think that is only one thing you should look at, because other things - like the median admitted MCAT of 33 or the instate interview rate of 45% - paint it as pretty competitive.

As an example, Indiana is only 74% populated by instate residents, but with a median accepted MCAT of 31 and an instate interview rate of 61%, I would consider it a little luckier to be a resident there.

 

[Goro]

How many times do I have to explain these things? 94% of U MA students are from the state. Again, my definition is NOT how hard it is for a native to get in overall, but how many natives vs non-natives get IIs and accepts.

~45% of MA applicants get IIs to U MA. About 1/3rd of them matriculate.

What makes you say MA?

Yeah i doubt MA is a lucky state. Applicants and matriculants there have strong LizzyM scores.

 

[Lawpy]

How many times do I have to explain these things? 94% of U MA students are from the state. Again, my definition is NOT how hard it is for a native to get in overall, but how many natives vs non-natives get IIs and accepts.

~45% of MA applicants get IIs to U MA. About 1/3rd of them matriculate.

Ok but as a state overall, MA is a net exporter of applicants like CA.

 

[Goro]

What I am looking at is how easy it is for a native to get into med school, period.

EDIT: also considering the typical accept: matriculant rate (which is ~ 2:1 to 3:1), that tells me that Bay Staters are leaving MA by choice, whereas Californians are not.

Ok but as a state overall, MA is a net exporter of applicants like CA.

 

[mwsapphire]

Yeah i doubt MA is a lucky state. Applicants and matriculants there have strong LizzyM scores.

That's what I was thinking.
I know UMASS med has a high accept rate on paper, the applicants still have amazing LizzyM scores, so you still need those to get in.
Also, in 2015, they opened their doors to all of New England, so now there's more competition.
Edit: Goro, you're right, baystaters do leave b/,c they want to, I'm just saying UMASS med is *not* a shoo-in.

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[cactusman]

VT is the only truly lucky state.

Last year, 96 IS students applied. 34 matriculated.

 

[tessellations]

I wonder if Baystaters choose to leave because they are more likely to get into top schools? I'm only thinking this might be the case because of their high LizzyM scores. I get the sense as a Baystater that UMass is generally a very attractive option, especially for students who aren't very competitive for Top 20 schools.

 

[Lawpy]

VT is the only truly lucky state.

Last year, 96 IS students applied. 34 matriculated.

Applicants from Vermont have strong LizzyM scores

 

[Lawpy]

What I am looking at is how easy it is for a native to get into med school, period.

EDIT: also considering the typical accept: matriculant rate (which is ~ 2:1 to 3:1), that tells me that Bay Staters are leaving MA by choice, whereas Californians are not.

Could you tell me where you got the bold and reached that conclusion? Sorry i got lost

 

[Goro]

There have been lots of threads about classes being overbooked. This is nothing new. Med schools accept more people than they have seats because they know from historic norms that more people go elsewhere...from Albany to Yale; from JAB to Harvard, from ACOM to Western.

For example, at my school

We get 5000+ apps
We interview ~500
We accept ~300-350
We seat ~100.

Other schools have similar numbers, whether MD or DO.

Could you tell me where you got the bold and reached that conclusion? Sorry i got lost

 

[cactusman]

Applicants from Vermont have strong LizzyM scores

True, but it's a giant bonus that it's the smallest state to have its own public med school. UVM is obligated to take a bunch of IS students, but since there are so few residents, they will always have an unusually high IS acceptance rate.

 

[freak7]

VT is the only truly lucky state.

Last year, 96 IS students applied. 34 matriculated.

Applicants from Vermont have strong LizzyM scores

True, but it's a giant bonus that it's the smallest state to have its own public med school. UVM is obligated to take a bunch of IS students, but since there are so few residents, they will always have an unusually high IS acceptance rate.

Yeah plus they have maple syrup.

Isn't VT the second least populous state though?

 

[cactusman]

Yeah plus they have maple syrup.

Isn't VT the second least populous state though?

Yes, but WY's only med school is shared with 4 other states. Could be wrong, but I doubt UW gives 32 seats to WY residents each year (which would be the same as VT's per capita IS seats). That would be 13% of the UW class, and WY has well below 13% of the total WWAMI population.

 

[blackroses]

Yes, but WY's only med school is shared with 4 other states. Could be wrong, but I doubt UW gives 32 seats to WY residents each year (which would be the same as VT's per capita IS seats). That would be 13% of the UW class, and WY has well below 13% of the total WWAMI population.

20 seats to Wyoming.

 

[Lawpy]

There have been lots of threads about classes being overbooked. This is nothing new. Med schools accept more people than they have seats because they know from historic norms that more people go elsewhere...from Albany to Yale; from JAB to Harvard, from ACOM to Western.

For example, at my school

We get 5000+ apps
We interview ~500
We accept ~300-350
We seat ~100.

Other schools have similar numbers, whether MD or DO.

my bad i got confused with something else.

so by "also considering the typical accept: matriculant rate (which is ~ 2:1 to 3:1), that tells me that Bay Staters are leaving MA by choice, whereas Californians are not.", CA has a lower accept:matriculant ratio and so aren't leaving by choice unlike MA?

 

[DokterMom]

Texas can be considered lucky for a number of reasons --

• There's a full range of schools from lower-stat to top-tier, so there will be at least two schools that are a good fit (stats-wise) for every qualified applicant.
• Because of insanely high in-state preferences and separate application, fewer OOS applicants flood the application pool, so qualified IS applicants are more likely to get their applications read and to get interview invitations. (Less application-reader fatigue)
  
• Some of the lowest tuition and total cost of attendance figures in the nation.
• There is a large enough number of schools with a high enough likelihood of extending an interview that the majority of well-qualified IS applicants do not even really need to apply OOS.
  • Candidates with marginal stats can apply IS and DO and know their bases are covered.
  • Candidates with high stats can apply IS and Dream School and know their bases are covered. (Dream schools do still interview Texans.)
• Being able to apply to fewer schools means fewer secondaries, so a cheaper, easier application cycle.
• The Match. A blessing and a curse, but at least you know.

That said, getting into a TX medical school is statistically no more likely than average, even after all of the new schools.

 

[mwsapphire]

But I feel like texans get less slack for numbers though. Like generally, a 3.6 with an UW trend is still very competitive with a strong MCAT, but I feel like in TX GPA doesn't get any slack,even with an amazing MCAT.
I may be wrong though,I'm not a TX, but that seems to be what I see on SDN.


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[freak7]

20 seats to people in Wyoming.

FTFY

 

[libertyyne]

FTFY

Those Tetons tho.

 

[Goro]

Nope, I believe it's because there are even more talented Californians. ..so it's not voluntary.

my bad i got confused with something else.

so by "also considering the typical accept: matriculant rate (which is ~ 2:1 to 3:1), that tells me that Bay Staters are leaving MA by choice, whereas Californians are not.", CA has a lower accept:matriculant ratio and so aren't leaving by choice unlike MA?

 

[libertyyne]

I wonder if rigor of the schools in the state is the determining factor that leads to LizzyM point difference between them.

 

[Dagrimsta1]

Is mayonnaise a state?

 

[mwsapphire]

I do think rigor of school is a major factor-because a lot of MA residents end up going to top UGrad schools .

 

[deleted446889]

Anyone have any insight on FL schools? UF, USF, UCF, FSU, UM, FIU, Nova, Lecom?

 

[all things possible]

But I feel like texans get less slack for numbers though. Like generally, a 3.6 with an UW trend is still very competitive with a strong MCAT, but I feel like in TX GPA doesn't get any slack,even with an amazing MCAT.
I may be wrong though,I'm not a TX, but that seems to be what I see on SDN.


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Yes Texas seems to favor SLIGHTLY higher GPAs.

High Gpa, high MCAT > high GPA, average MCAT > average GPA, high MCAT in my opinion.

Example: 3.8, 509 > 3.6 512

 

[habitualgreatness]

.

 

[glass-animal]

They are states where residents have a higher chance of getting accepted to medical school. They typically have a larger number of seats available for in-state students compared to the number of applicants they get. You can look at this table for data on each state.
https://www.aamc.org/download/321466/data/factstablea5.pdf

Do tables like this that are published by the AAMC only include data on MD schools or also DO?


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[libertyyne]

Do tables like this that are published by the AAMC only include data on MD schools or also DO?


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Only MD.DO schools are not part of the AAMC, rather they have their own group AACOM.

 

[efle]

How much higher of a chance to would an URM (Black), Female, UW pre-med have at getting into UWSOM then?

Very, very good odds if the rest of your app is in order. You're in very short supply up in the far northwest, usually the few people that UW considers from outside the WWAMI pool are URMs

 

[Lardy Boy]

Hawaii!!!


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[skeptastic]

WA only has 24% IS matriculant rate

14%

 

[freak7]

14%

Omg it's even worse??

 

[skeptastic]

Omg it's even worse??

It's interesting. They interview an extremely high percentage of IS applicants, so that is a huge plus. That 14% matriculation stat for IS applicants is a tough one though. One of the lowest in the country without question.

The way I see it, if you're a WA resident you've got to be comfortable both applying and moving OOS for medical school in order to be as competitive as possible. The probability of being accepted to just one school (though WSU is now open) is so unlikely that OOS has to be a major consideration at the very least.

 

[freak7]

It's interesting. They interview an extremely high percentage of IS applicants, so that is a huge plus. That 14% matriculation stat for IS applicants is a tough one though. One of the lowest in the country without question.

The way I see it, if you're a WA resident you've got to be comfortable both applying and moving OOS for medical school in order to be as competitive as possible. The probability of being accepted to just one school (though WSU is now open) is so unlikely that OOS has to be a major consideration at the very least.

Yeah and that's not even accounting for their questionable class composition.

 

[vellez]

Now for the "WAMI" people, they get very lucky. Wyoming, Alaska, Montana and Idaho end up with acceptance numbers that are similar to the rest of the country. Washingtonians get screwed.

I'd like to clear up the air that the other WAMI states make it a disadvantage for Washington residents. This is ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY not the case. Each state funds their own seats; each state coordinates education in their home state for the pre-clinical years. So the other WAMI states add to UW's prestige--they do not disadvantage WA residents.

 

[skeptastic]

Yeah and that's not even accounting for their questionable class composition.

What do you mean? Just curious about what you're seeing in the stats.


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[unicornshadow888]

KS is a lucky state, as are MS, NM, OR, ND, SD, TN, GA, MO, MA, CT, NJ, AR, WA (for WWAMI), SC and a few others.

I wouldn't call insider GA a lucky state if you look at the stats and consider that there are only 4 medical schools (only one of which is public) in the state.

 

[precisiongraphic]

I'd like to clear up the air that the other WAMI states make it a disadvantage for Washington residents. This is ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY not the case. Each state funds their own seats; each state coordinates education in their home state for the pre-clinical years. So the other WAMI states add to UW's prestige--they do not disadvantage WA residents.

I don't agree that Washingtonians are not disadvantaged. UW, if it had never created/been part of WWAMI, could have ~175 spots that Washington funds itself reserved 90% for residents.

 

[cactusman]

I don't agree that Washingtonians are not disadvantaged. UW, if it had never created/been part of WWAMI, could have ~175 spots that Washington funds itself reserved 90% for residents.

But then it would have to find the seats itself...

Coming from New Hampshire, I do love watching people with more than 5 reserved seats complain about their disadvantage.

 

[freak7]

But then it would have to find the seats itself...

Coming from New Hampshire, I do love watching people with more than 5 reserved seats complain about their disadvantage.

Look at it from a seats per capita perspective.

 

[On_The_Way_Up]

The thing that really matters is a lucky bed. If you know what I mean.

 

[pioneer22]

Washington

 

[vellez]

I don't agree that Washingtonians are not disadvantaged. UW, if it had never created/been part of WWAMI, could have ~175 spots that Washington funds itself reserved 90% for residents.

If WWAMI had never been created, then WA residents couldn't rotate in Idaho, Alaska, MT and Wyoming. Places to rotate don't just appear out of thin air. Often that's the major limitation for how many seats a school can have. How many seats the AAMC will *let* that school have based on clerkship opportunities. Not all of med school is how many seats there are for lectures or shiny new buildings.

Also, ID, MT, AK and WY residents do all their preclinical years in their respective states. They certainly aren't taking up seats in lecture halls in Seattle.

 

[freak7]

If WWAMI had never been created, then WA residents couldn't rotate in Idaho, Alaska, MT and Wyoming. Places to rotate don't just appear out of thin air. Often that's the major limitation for how many seats a school can have. How many seats the AAMC will *let* that school have based on clerkship opportunities. Not all of med school is how many seats there are for lectures or shiny new buildings.

Also, ID, MT, AK and WY residents do all their preclinical years in their respective states. They certainly aren't taking up seats in lecture halls in Seattle.

Missing. The. Point.