What will the future look like in the healthcare field?

[Coffee-Bean-Counter]

My local hospital recently enacted temporary employee pay cuts and benefit suspensions and it caught me off guard. As a nontraditional student who is working towards the goal of becoming a physician, it made me wonder what the economy/job market will look like once I complete. Now I have three years before I even apply to medical school (1 year left of bachelor's & 2 years for DIY), but I would like to fully understand what I am getting into. Is this happening everywhere? Should I be concerned about employment/financial stability? I also read the government is cutting Medicare/Medicaid reimbursements, which from my understanding, affects physicians’ salaries. Are we going to see a large decrease in physicians’ salaries in the future?

I am not going to change my mind about becoming a physician. My classes and volunteering are going great, but I don’t have anyone to ask these types of questions to.

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[Goro]

More women will be doctors than men

 

[Mr.Smile12]

We cover elements of this in Becoming a Student Doctor. Not everyone has a clue how doctors even get paid when they start medical school... they mostly see the salaries from the job surveys.

 

[Coffee-Bean-Counter]

We cover elements of this in Becoming a Student Doctor. Not everyone has a clue how doctors even get paid when they start medical school... they mostly see the salaries from the job surveys.

Okay, I can look into that! I honestly was just curious about what people thought about all the changes being made and the side effects of these changes in this economy. I just thought it would be an interesting topic, but I was wrong due to the lack of people responding to my post lol

 

[Myopicvisions]

As long as there are sick people- there will be doctors. I think AI will be a major part of health care in the future so perhaps doctors will be more operators than actual doctors in some specialities.

 

[Hollow Knight]

So there is a bit to unpack here.

Worrying about AI is kind of like people who worry about NPs and PAs "takin our jerbs." I worried too when I was premed, but now that I'm actually in school, I realize there is absolutely no way a machine or a less educated person can do the job of a residency-trained, board-certified physician.

Our salaries might fall for sure, especially if we enact universal healthcare. You may have to open a cash practice). But even if society completely collapses, people will always pay to be seen by a physician when they're sick, even if they're paying with farm-fresh eggs or something.

And as far as AI goes.... if it gets smart enough to replace a doctor (no way, but let's just assume it's possible), it will have replaced ALL cashiers, bank tellers, accountants..... basically, that's a complete restructuring of society you can't plan for. Don't worry about it. There are tons of people who won't have jobs before it gets to docs.

 

[RangerBob]

So there is a bit to unpack here.

Worrying about AI is kind of like people who worry about NPs and PAs "takin our jerbs." I worried too when I was premed, but now that I'm actually in school, I realize there is absolutely no way a machine or a less educated person can do the job of a residency-trained, board-certified physician.

Our salaries might fall for sure, especially if we enact universal healthcare. You may have to open a cash practice). But even if society completely collapses, people will always pay to be seen by a physician when they're sick, even if they're paying with farm-fresh eggs or something.

And as far as AI goes.... if it gets smart enough to replace a doctor (no way, but let's just assume it's possible), it will have replaced ALL cashiers, bank tellers, accountants..... basically, that's a complete restructuring of society you can't plan for. Don't worry about it. There are tons of people who won't have jobs before it gets to docs.

Universal healthcare would actually not decrease many physicians salaries. As a solo practice inpatient doc, I would actually see an increase. Private insurance more or less pays the same as Medicare. Medicaid pays maybe 30-40% of what Medicare pays. Many patients won't pay their copay/coinsurance. So universal healthcare would actually be quite a boon to physicians like me (and presumably every single hospitalist, likely any hospital-based physicians in general).

Obviously yes, cash will always pay the most.

I also don't worry about AI. I point out to people AI will be sorted out by then, because AI will threaten the jobs of lawyers and politicians before it threatens ours.

As Goro mentioned, there will be more female than male physicians. Med schools are typically majority female now (as are colleges--makes you wonder what happened to all the men...)

Medicine will change. So will every other field. Some things for the better, some for the worse. Every job is going to have annoying bureaucracy/issues, so whatever you do, make sure you find meaning in what you do, and that you enjoy (or can tolerate) the everyday stuff that is part of the job.

 

[Coffee-Bean-Counter]

Universal healthcare would actually not decrease many physicians salaries. As a solo practice inpatient doc, I would actually see an increase. Private insurance more or less pays the same as Medicare. Medicaid pays maybe 30-40% of what Medicare pays. Many patients won't pay their copay/coinsurance. So universal healthcare would actually be quite a boon to physicians like me (and presumably every single hospitalist, likely any hospital-based physicians in general).

Obviously yes, cash will always pay the most.

This is an interesting insight because when I investigated this subject the responses were very mixed. Even one of my professors for my degree program mentioned how universal healthcare will financially hurt professionals in the medical field and could lead to poorer quality of care. Then of course he went over the pros as well. I do not want to be a physician for financial stability, it's a plus, but I can also obtain that in another field without as much debt. I just like to have a general foundation/understanding of what is happening in whatever field I work in.

I also don't worry about AI. I point out to people AI will be sorted out by then, because AI will threaten the jobs of lawyers and politicians before it threatens ours.

I am not worried about AI. I am not going to pretend to know how it will shape our future, it's out of my control. I am more concerned about how it will affect my children when they enter the workforce 16+ years from now.

As Goro mentioned, there will be more female than male physicians. Med schools are typically majority female now (as are colleges--makes you wonder what happened to all the men...)

Yes, I saw that, but that’s a substantial topic with multiple components to address. I feel like my questions were already on the boring side, no reason to completely bore everyone with my thoughts on that.

Medicine will change. So will every other field. Some things for the better, some for the worse. Every job is going to have annoying bureaucracy/issues, so whatever you do, make sure you find meaning in what you do, and that you enjoy (or can tolerate) the everyday stuff that is part of the job.

It would be boring if it didn't progress. Thanks for the response!

 

[RangerBob]

This is an interesting insight because when I investigated this subject the responses were very mixed. Even one of my professors for my degree program mentioned how universal healthcare will financially hurt professionals in the medical field and could lead to poorer quality of care. Then of course he went over the pros as well. I do not want to be a physician for financial stability, it's a plus, but I can also obtain that in another field without as much debt. I just like to have a general foundation/understanding of what is happening in whatever field I work in.

I should have really emphasized the many part of my post. Many providers will do worse, many would do better. Hard to tell... Hence why you get so many varied answers. And then there's the whole philosophical/ethical side of universal coverage.

I'm not sure how it would work for hospitals. Obviously safety-net hospitals that see mostly uninsured/Medicaid would do better (since now they get paid nothing or Medicare rates), and hospitals catering to the well-to-do would do worse (since Medicare does pay hospitals quite a bit less than private payors, in general).

I imagine the same would be true for surgeons/procedural.

Groups can often negotiate better rates with private payors than individual docs like me. So again, they might suffer more with Medicare for all if they have a higher percentage of privately insured patients.

I'm curious if Medicare for all could actually raise reimbursement for everyone, but cost the same due to the decreased overhead/fewer denials/etc. It's entirely possible hospitals and physicians could make more (or we make the same/patients save money). As a solo practice doc, I can't tell you how often my billers tell me that insurance companies deny a payment just because they can and it lets them hold onto the money longer and accrue interest. Plus there's always the chance we forget to appeal/send in clinical notes to get the money. One company still sends paper checks to my hospital, not my billers (despite my billers requesting the checks go to them), which I presume is to lengthen the amount of time they hold onto their money/increase the odds the check never gets to me.

It's all just ridiculous.

Simplicity. We need more of it (the whole world does). EMRs had that potential but unfortunately that got messed up.

 

[Myopicvisions]

So there is a bit to unpack here.

Worrying about AI is kind of like people who worry about NPs and PAs "takin our jerbs." I worried too when I was premed, but now that I'm actually in school, I realize there is absolutely no way a machine or a less educated person can do the job of a residency-trained, board-certified physician.

Our salaries might fall for sure, especially if we enact universal healthcare. You may have to open a cash practice). But even if society completely collapses, people will always pay to be seen by a physician when they're sick, even if they're paying with farm-fresh eggs or something.

And as far as AI goes.... if it gets smart enough to replace a doctor (no way, but let's just assume it's possible), it will have replaced ALL cashiers, bank tellers, accountants..... basically, that's a complete restructuring of society you can't plan for. Don't worry about it. There are tons of people who won't have jobs before it gets to docs.

The only thing I would add is that NPs and PAs are actually running most of the urgent care clinics that I have been to in NYC. There is usually a physician who is "over " the site but mostly NPs and PAs.

In 2030 there will be a shortfall of physicians. This is a fact. There are just over 1 million practicing physicians in the US right now with a population of 330 million and climbing.

AI may not take over a job but things will get more digitalized. I spoke to my cousin in the UK who told me they don't see a doctor directly anymore. Everything is done online initially - to the point that they upload photos of their physical ailments if possible. Then they will get a phone call from the doctor who will assess if they are worthy or an actual visit. A novel way to deal with underfunding.
I could see that approach translating well in the US.