The decision where to apply is very personal, based on the things you find important. A lot of people are very set on a certain location- ie NYC, West Coast, Chicago, Midwest. A lot of people want a place with a perceived ranking- ie Wilmer, Wills, Bascom, etc. A lot of people look for certain program characteristics- call schedule, surgical volume, etc. A lot of people would be happy matching anywhere.
If you feel you are a long shot, well, there are 116 total programs. I'd try to apply broadly. Do a little research on specific programs- some receive 500 applicants, some receive 250. Obviously your chances might be better at a program not dealing with a giant crush of applications. If you've already registered for match, go to the website and log in to look at program specifics- websites, app deadlines, interview dates, resident numbers, city locations, etc.
My final word would be with matching is really no one knows who programs will like and not like. A lot of it is luck so it is hard to call anyone a long shot. Be yourself and find programs that suit your passions and desires. Good luck.
