This may be sort of a tangent but is something I've been thinking about that I want to get other people's input on. Keep in mind that I'm just a premed student that came up with this as a theory so please don't think I think everything I'm saying is a fact. I'm merely presenting a theory and asking if it has any validity.
https://www.aamc.org/download/321516/data/factstablea24-3.pdf
This table shows that there were 507 Asian applicants and 472 accepted for 2 application cycles (what I assume it is but correct me if I'm wrong) that that had a GPA that was 3.8 or higher with a 39-45. Dividing that number by 2 for a rough estimate of how many Asian applicants have these stats per cycle we get about 254 applicants and 236 acceptances. Since schools seek to have diversity for each class they admit, we can assume that each class will admit an x number minimum of Asian applicants. Now I'm not saying that number has to be high, it could even be just 1, but I'm saying it's highly unlikely they won't admit at least 1. If we divide 236 by 20 (for the Top 20 schools) we get 11.8 Asian applicants with these stats admitted per Top 20 school. I understand that calculating it like this would assume that each Asian applicant gets a single acceptance from a single Top 20 school and that many Top 20s accept the same top applicants, but again these schools know that in the end an applicant can only choose 1 school so they will admit more applicants than will matriculate. Also factoring in the fact that many of these applicants would be yield protected from the vast majority of mid to low tiers, is it safe to say having stats in this range as an Asian applicant will close to guarantee a top 20 acceptance (assuming the applicant has checked all the EC boxes but may not have anything really amazing and has no significant red flags)?
