which schools from the following list do I have the best shot at?

It's hard to say which schools you have a better chance at because those that have lower averages tend to have way more applicants. If I were you I wouldn't apply somewhere you wouldn't be happy spending 4 years at. Averages are just that...averages, so plenty of students have higher and lower stats. My advice is apply where you would like to go BUT if you strictly want to know which of those schools people tend to view as "easier" to get in when you are comparing GPA and MCAT then I would say vermont, jefferson, st louis, and maybe boston univ. Good luck to you.