Actually, I have a little time... and I'll help you with your reading comprehension from that NEJM, throwing in my own analysis when appropriate.
Quoted from
your source, a "Perspective" article (i.e., an opinion piece and not a study) in the NEJM:
Now, entering [U.S. MD-granting] classes are projected to reach 21,434 students by the 2016–2017 academic year, almost a 30% increase over 2002 [sic].
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1306445
That means that the
2021 graduating class of traditional MD-granting schools in the U.S. will have only 21,434 students vying for match positions.
Colleges of osteopathic medicine have been growing for the past 20 years, doubling in number from 15 to 30 and increasing enrollments from 6892 students in 1990 to 21,743 in 2012.
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1306445
Wrong
and misleading as written! There are not 21,743 students
per class starting in 2012. There were 20,633
total students in
all levels of training across all schools in 2011-2012, i.e. MS1-4. So, not exactly sure how he referenced his numbers.
In 2011-12, first-year enrollment rose by 7 percent, to 5,788 students.
http://www.aacom.org/data/Documents/Trends-apps-enroll-grads.pdf
So, that means in
2016 that will be
5,788 osteopathy student graduates added to the mix, not 21,743, of
independent applicants in the NRMP (that's what they consider them, just like US-IMGs).
Let's look at the projected number of U.S. allopathic (i.e. MD-granting) applicants in 2016.
Table 1: Summary of Baseline and Current First-Year Enrollment, and Projected First-Year Enrollment through 2017
2012 First Year Enrollment: 19,517 (page 6)
https://members.aamc.org/eweb/upload/12-237 EnrollmSurvey2013.pdf
So, in the
2016 graduating (and thus Matching)
class, there will be U.S. MD + U.S. DO a total of
25,305 graduates alone from these two groups vying for residency via the Match. This is
still far less than the total number of spots available even this past year's (2013) Match cycle.
Now, forget the NRMP all-in nonsense for a minute, and let's look at the growth trend of the total number of ACGME spots to 2013:
Number of Residents, by Academic Year (page 13)
2010-2011: 113,142
2011-2012: 115,293
2012-2013: 117,717
https://www.acgme.org/acgmeweb/Port...s/2012-2013_ACGME_DATABOOK_DOCUMENT_Final.pdf
So, over the past three cycles, the total number of spots has
increased at a rate of
1.9% and
2.1% per year respectively. So, let's call that
two percent growth per year (and this has been more or less consistent over the past ten years).
That means we should expect a similar number in growth of first-year spots. So, extrapolating this, we would expect by
2016 that there would be growth of the total spots (i.e., across all training levels) to reach about
124,922 spots or
7,205 additional physicians in GME training programs - and that is if
nothing else is done. Even with a giant injection of U.S. medical graduates, there is no reason to believe that training programs won't adjust their numbers up.
However, the bottom line - as I've said before
numerous times - is that the overall growth of U.S. medical schools and expansion of U.S. osteopathy schools is
good for applicants and
bad for Caribbean schools. This means there are more spots for near misses rather than ever before for people who otherwise should've gotten into a U.S. medical school but had to go Caribbean. How is this a bad thing for the student?
You guys are living in the now. That's your problem. And, this alarmist propaganda piece written in the NEJM is nothing to worry about because the problem will take care of itself.
Yes, if you decide to enroll in a Caribbean school
starting in 2016, you might want to make sure that you've exhausted all possibility of getting into a U.S. school first (which will be much easier then than it is now because there will be a lot more spots). But, until then, you've got little to worry about. Don't let anyone scare you away from your dream. Just be smart, work hard, and you'll do fine. And, you should expect the numbers of spots to continue to adjust upwards in the meantime, despite what the NEJM opinion piece says.
-Skip