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According to AAMC the correlation between MCAT and USMLE 1 is only between the PS and BS sections, each contribute statistically equivalently (the correlation is about 0.03 higher on PS - insignificant). VR correlates slightly. Writing does not correlate at all.
For the majority of URMs I know personally, it was the VR that hurt them on the MCAT. A close friend of mine was rejected because a low VR score put them under the minimum score to get an interview, but the PS and BS were just fine. And this points to what I am talking about; we are qualified, but many times it is this one section that barely correlates that gets us.