Will initial US applicants dip below 152?

[fiji128]

At this time we probably should be graduating about 80 people a year, if that. Almost all of the current 190 residency positions will ultimately fill with someone. We have so many non essential and unnecessary programs out there that will never go away because there are zero mechanisms in place for a serious market driven contraction to take place.

Really the only question is when will things really start imploding and not if.

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Members don't see this ad.

 

[jondunn]

A penis clamp on each ear to keep head still to couch. Ears are mostly clean and quick spray after can reuse on a penis. Admin bean counters will love the idea

many claiming KEY

 

[elementaryschooleconomics]

I am hearing from a bird significant drop with even more IMGs. This is a “top” program with about 125ish total applications. Man this will be a great SOAP to watch while I bask in our field’s swamps. Get your sippy cups folks!

I don't know the breakdown (MD, DO, FMG, etc) but my crew tells me a similar number (110-120).

Make RadOnc great again!

 

[Mandelin Rain]

I am hearing from a bird significant drop with even more IMGs. This is a “top” program with about 125ish total applications. Man this will be a great SOAP to watch while I bask in our field’s swamps. Get your sippy cups folks!

Like the diminutive mangrove, our roots run deep in the briniest and most brackish swamps. But never worry, our strength is in our numbers. Enough mangroves can hold a coast together. We too must #expandallresidencies.

 

[Doctorer]

Anyone else hearing numbers?

 

[MegaVoltagePhoton]

I just got word. Mid tier program, <100 applicants

 

[fiji128]

Wonder if any of this will cause those in "leadership" to put on their big boy pants now. I won't be holding my breath.

 

[OTN]

Wonder if any of this will cause those in "leadership" to put on their big boy pants now. I won't be holding my breath.

They never really cared about the canaries after all.

 

[thecarbonionangle]

I just got word. Mid tier program, <100 applicants

Great SOAP ahead.

 

[jondunn]

Great SOAP ahead.

Don’t drop the soap, etc etc

 

[thecarbonionangle]

Don’t drop the soap, etc etc

It seems to me some of these places will find out what happens when the SOAP drops!

 

[jondunn]

It seems to me some of these places will find out what happens when the SOAP drops!

most likely to match zero: UTMB, SUNY Upstate, Baylor, Tennessee, and Kentucky!

 

[CurbYourExpectations]

Yeah, wouldn't get hopes up. Last year the average program got 100 invites, which seems to be pretty consistent with what you all are saying.

 

[thecarbonionangle]

Yeah, wouldn't get hopes up. Last year the average program got 100 invites, which seems to be pretty consistent with what you all are saying.

Usual suspect hellpits will take ANYBODY with a pulse.

 

[medgator]

most likely to match zero: UTMB, SUNY Upstate, Baylor, Tennessee, and Kentucky!

I'd add SUNY downstate, LIJ, Henry Ford and Mississippi to the list

 

[Baws]

Got word from my program's PGY5s: 67 applicants (low/mid-tier, large city midwest); around 30 US MD

 

[Sheldor]

Got word from my program's PGY5s: 67 applicants (low/mid-tier, large city midwest); around 30 US MD

What would they have gotten a few years ago (for reference.)? That seems insane to only get 30 US applicants, dang

 

[Baws]

When I was in residency, it was usually greater than 150 applicants; I quite frankly cannot put a number on the number of US MDs/DOs, but I will tell you, we NEVER interviewed a IMG/FMG or Carribean graduate (we probably interviewed around 75ish?)

Also there are a few FMGs/IMGs that are using radonc a stepping stool to staying on as a IM resident in their prelim years once they come to America and find out the intricacies of what is happening to our speciality (if you look at the residencies that are posting PGY2 spots, it's fairly easy to make out)

I am glad that SDN has gotten the word out; I post infrequently here compare to some of you giants, but keep doing what you are doing (also you lemmiwinks); our leadership in pathetic, senile, and ineffective, but the talks that happen here make it back to the ivory towers (trust me: I have to zoom into the physician meetings at our main campus)

 

[Baws]

Also let me be very clear here: I have met some FMG/IMG students last year in the interviews; I distinctly remember two as being absolutely incredible (far smarter than I am) and will no doubt make excellent clinical scientists (if they can find a job in 5 years)

Our leadership unfortnately is preying on their vulnerable VISA status and social situations to fill spots; they are NOT doing this for diversity or inclusion reasons (see my previous comment about us never interviewing a single FMG/IMG during peak radonc)

 

[TheWallnerus]

Shocking news re: drop in applicants

TMZ's on it guys

 

[jondunn]

Many FMGs will go anywhere to work, at least historically. I live in an undesirable area making bank. Our last recruitment effort was tough, but we did find someone from the region who wanted to be there.

Many of my colleagues in other fields where I work are foreign-born and trained, and are awesome.

In the future we could see this happen in rad onc. Maybe 25 years from now every rad onc working at CARTI will be FMG!

 

[Baws]

Many FMGs will go anywhere to work, at least historically. I live in an undesirable area making bank. Our last recruitment effort was tough, but we did find someone from the region who wanted to be there.

Many of my colleagues in other fields where I work are foreign-born and trained, and are awesome.

In the future we could see this happen in rad onc. Maybe 25 years from now every rad onc working at CARTI will be FMG!

I’m uncertain of FMG desire to work on the middle of nowhere, because some of the applicants brought up concerns about how they would feel isolated in a rural Midwest area with no ties to their culture/no worship place for them/ no community /etc

It was quite enlightening to me, and made me even more disheartened how our leadership is preying on this vulnerable population (regardless of who is in the White House)

 

[Mandelin Rain]

If you've ever worked in the middle of nowhere, like true BFE, you've seen a lot of FMGs working. Whether they desire it or not. It's easy to take advantage of them because of visa status. Admins know this and target them.

I agree with what most here have said. Often times FMGs are excellent doctors, but just as often, it's hard to get the local patients on board.

 

[jondunn]

If you've ever worked in the middle of nowhere, like true BFE, you've seen a lot of FMGs working. Whether they desire it or not. It's easy to take advantage of them because of visa status. Admins know this and target them.

I agree with what most here have said. Often times FMGs are excellent doctors, but just as often, it's hard to get the local patients on board.

yes true. but also for some, they are fine with priotiziing money over location of where they live. i know this from personal experience.

 

[thecarbonionangle]

Shocking news re: drop in applicants

TMZ's on it guys

Is that beach estate where PW houses all his baby mamas?

 

[RickyScott]

yes true. but also for some, they are fine with priotiziing money over location of where they live. i know this from personal experience.

If you are not from USA and don’t have family here, may as well go where you can make most money?

 

[Baws]

Agreed with what’s being said above; FMGs have been taken advantage of by hospitals for decades

Now our leadership is doing this too

 

[deleted941485]

Is that beach estate where PW houses all his baby mamas?

Maybe he was friends with R Kelly

 

[Neuronix]

If you are not from USA and don’t have family here, may as well go where you can make most money?

You assume rural America will pay them well... Well known rad onc groups out there underpay FMGs who have no other options including rural. Bad job market means they can't get out of that exploitation.

 

[thecarbonionangle]

Maybe he was friends with R Kelly

Maybe even Epstein and Marianne

 

[medgator]

You assume rural America will pay them well... Well known rad onc groups out there underpay FMGs who have no other options including rural. Bad job market means they can't get out of that exploitation.

Certain job in the Midwest used to get posted every year looking for docs with visa issues and low balled salary

 

[Neuronix]

Certain job in the Midwest used to get posted every year looking for docs with visa issues and low balled salary

Even within the same shop people can have dramatically different pay. Visa issue or thick accent can mean non-negotiable contract, whereas they will negotiate with someone else.

 

[jondunn]

Even within the same shop people can have dramatically different pay. Visa issue or thick accent can mean non-negotiable contract, whereas they will negotiate with someone else.

Happens at your Academic shop or not?

 

[Neuronix]

Happens at your Academic shop or not?

I plead the fifth.

 

[evilbooyaa]

Certain job in the Midwest used to get posted every year looking for docs with visa issues and low balled salary

Yup, was clearly a place looking for FMGs with visa issues to massively lowball on salary growth opportunities.

 

[elementaryschooleconomics]

I would like to consider the opening day RadOnc numbers in the setting of this:

Not only is the overall raw number of RadOnc applicants significantly down as compared to ~5 years ago, but most specialties have seen a significant increase in raw applicants because of the shotgun approach many students feel they have to take.

I would be encouraged by the low opening day numbers, however, I am certain that nearly every available RadOnc spot will be filled by the start of July 1st, either by the SOAP or by people taking spots outside the Match.

The canaries died long ago; the mines collapsed and are perpetually on fire. Alas, the economy of residents is propped up by a supernatural force, making Radiation Oncology the Silent Hill of medicine.

 

[Ray D. Ayshun]

I would like to consider the opening day RadOnc numbers in the setting of this:

View attachment 344048

Not only is the overall raw number of RadOnc applicants significantly down as compared to ~5 years ago, but most specialties have seen a significant increase in raw applicants because of the shotgun approach many students feel they have to take.

I would be encouraged by the low opening day numbers, however, I am certain that nearly every available RadOnc spot will be filled by the start of July 1st, either by the SOAP or by people taking spots outside the Match.

The canaries died long ago; the mines collapsed and are perpetually on fire. Alas, the economy of residents is propped up by a supernatural force, making Radiation Oncology the Silent Hill of medicine.

Yeah, I applied in the "apply to every program" era only 7 years ago, and was reasonably competitive, though I stopped at 30. Are applicants told a number these days?

 

[seper]

Radonc used to be much harder to get into than Ortho! Mid-2000’s when I was applying

 

[Chartreuse Wombat]

Top 10-15 program. 100 US MD applicants. Five years ago 175-200 US MDs. 25 FMG (this number has been stable for a decade)

 

[CurbYourExpectations]

Top 10-15 program. 100 US MD applicants. Five years ago 175-200 US MDs. 25 FMG (this number has been stable for a decade)

About as many as last year, thought it would be less.

 

[radiation]

Percentage of First-Year Fellows by Gender and Type of Medical School Attended | ABIM.org

ABIM provides accurate data for the percentage of first-year fellows by gender and type of medical school.

www.abim.org

Using img/do percentage is useful only to assess relative trends in the popularity of the field, and not necessarily determine how that field willl do. Heme/onc is still only 60% US grads (and historically has hovered around 50%)

 

[radiadouken]

Hearing from a top 10 program they got about 130 total apps, about 30 FMGs

 

[radonconogs]

Hearing from a top 10 program they got about 130 total apps, about 30 FMGs

Very similar with what I heard with another top 10–20 program

 

[jondunn]

surprised its not more FMGs. per what CW said above, 25 FMG has been stable for a while.

 

[CurbYourExpectations]

surprised its not more FMGs. per what CW said above, 25 FMG has been stable for a while.

I believe it's because RadOnc isn't super prevalent in a lot of countries. The other thing is that FM, IM and some surgical specialities have a healthy job market and lots of jobs which gives FMGs a higher likelihood of staying here even though they've likely already been trained in their home country and are much more proficient in residency than us. Even Pathology has a lot more jobs than RadOnc in the hospital, everywhere needs a pathologist. Radiation Oncology is super Niche, finite amount of machines, and likely will employ a USMD or Do over supporting a Visa. Does anyone know more about this? I'm just giving my thoughts

 

[brushbeamscanning]

Does that mean there's likely only 150 or so applicants for 200 ish spots? There's definitely going to be way more unfilled programs this year pre soap.

 

[Neuronix]

Anonymous PM sent to me. I have no connection with that institution.

Institution is upper mid-tier(?) in large city in southeast
115 applications
25 FMGs
12 advanced (e.g. applying from a prelim position or switching residencies)
6 DO
6 not authorized to work in US
5 with fewer than 3 LOR
44 with Step1 score <232 (average this year)

 

[jondunn]

That US MD percentage is actually pretty high compared to what I was expecting. Will have to see what the trash programs like SUNY Upstate get

 

[medgator]

That US MD percentage is actually pretty high compared to what I was expecting. Will have to see what the trash programs like SUNY Upstate get

Honestly, the upstate NY programs aren't terrible training wise imo, really the locations are more hellpit than anything else. Often they are the tertiary care centers for a wide swath of area.

If you want to really look at trash hellpit NY programs, Columbia, Methodist or downstate are likely far worse since the best cases are going to end up at better programs in the city like Sloane or NYU

 

[ramsesthenice]

I finally looked over our stack. Things actually look better than last year in terms of the ratio of US to foreign MD and quality of the applicants. Of course, with an overall small number of applicants to go around, that may not be a good thing for less competitive programs. But hopefully good news for the field. Too small of a sample to tell but waaaaay less depressing than this time last year. At least for me.