... and every year, someone who is "ranked to match" doesn't. And the explanation is "well, we usually go down to number 20 but this year we filled at #15 and you were #17. Sorry".
Point is, these communications are not binding. You should make up your own mind. YOu cannot hurt yourself by ranking programs highly that you think you have no chance of matching at. You should simply rank the programs in the order you want to go to them.