2012-2013 Rank Order List Power Score and Compilation Thread

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ianjustlellis

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As was suggested, this is the official thread for the 2012-2013 Rank Order List Compilation Spreadsheet and Power Score, updated daily. Any discussions on how to improve the algorithm should occur here.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnzZUifXW_SgdDRocV9WTUNkM1AwQm9DUWVkZDgtaWc#gid=0

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As was suggested, this is the official thread for the 2012-2013 Rank Order List Compilation Spreadsheet and Power Score, updated daily. Any discussions on how to improve the algorithm should occur here.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnzZUifXW_SgdHZobW5UbUpzMEZuQmNPNnB3enAyS3c#gid=0

Someone brought up the problem with number of interviews. I was thinking a partial fix for this would be to divide the score by the resident quota for each program.
 
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I updated the spreadsheet with the number of interviews and the number of PGY1 positions. Any thoughts on how to incorporate that info?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnzZUifXW_SgdHZobW5UbUpzMEZuQmNPNnB3enAyS3c#gid=0

FREIDA has info concerning how many people were interviewed the year before if you're interested in more accurate numbers. For example, CMC reports 140 ints like you have but Vandy has 138 and Indy does 164. Some like Utah don't have it public though
 
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I believe Texas A&M and Scott and White are the same program.
 
This power ranking formula is ridiculous. The old one kinda made sense but now it's gone over the edge. Before long, we're gonna be integrating and doing partial derivatives...
 
This power ranking formula is ridiculous. The old one kinda made sense but now it's gone over the edge. Before long, we're gonna be integrating and doing partial derivatives...

YES! lol
 
This power ranking formula is ridiculous. The old one kinda made sense but now it's gone over the edge. Before long, we're gonna be integrating and doing partial derivatives...

Any suggestions on how to "integrate" those things into the formula? ;)
 
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This power ranking formula is ridiculous. The old one kinda made sense but now it's gone over the edge. Before long, we're gonna be integrating and doing partial derivatives...

The sooner the better. This is fun!

I look forward to the correction factors for the SDN bias.
 
Thanks for all the suggestions guys!

Here is the updated link with the completed new algorithm. It takes into account the number of spots in the program as a measure of its competitiveness (i.e., all other variables being equal, a program with less PGY1 spots is more competitive).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnzZUifXW_SgdHZobW5UbUpzMEZuQmNPNnB3enAyS3c

I've stated my opinion many times on the how relevant this is. But I do think this is a pretty nifty little accomplishment ianjustlellis, so definitely congrats on that!
 
I've stated my opinion many times on the how relevant this is. But I do think this is a pretty nifty little accomplishment ianjustlellis, so definitely congrats on that!

Aww thanks! :) I've had fun, and I LITERALLY have nothing else to do with my time as I'm on vacation and my wife is working every day this week. It's this or the dishes....
 
Tweaked algorithm...I decided that too much weight was given to how many people had ranked them total, no matter where they were ranked (the way it was before, if 200 people ranked a program but they all ranked them number 9 the power score would increase, whereas it should probably have decreased). New algorithm in title of spreadsheet.
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ianjustlellis
I think it's useful for at least three things--

1. For future applicants to get a sense of how many people ranked what and programs' true competitiveness from this year based on some data and not just hearsay.

2. Also, for people to be realistic about their planning and expectations for match day. Based on the ROL's posted so far, if I was an average, or even above average applicant who had put Carolinas number one and had been counting on it being in the envelope, I would start adjusting my expectations to not be disappointed on Match Day if a different name comes out. Conversely, if I have put a program that is lower on the list number one, I can start to become a little more confident about what's coming.

3. I've been enjoying seeing certain patterns. For example, Orlando Health is the single most ranked program at this point, but not a single person has ranked it 1 or 2--mostly 5s and 6s. Everyone that ranks Carolinas ranks it highly--conversely, a lot of people have ranked Vandy really high, but some people clearly didn't like it at all and ranked it like number 12.

Just my two cents. And I think it's just fun to see actual data coming out of the craziness that has been the last 6 months.
It did seem very helpful... until I saw "ranked first multiplying bonus" and "power score" ranking (with the top school having 81 points and anyone below 10th isn't even above 20.

There's nothing scientific about the data gathering, so why try to make the data mean more than it does. It's such a random sampling that you can hardly make any meaningful conclusions.

So yeah, somewhat useful - alongside a juvenile poorly designed pissing contest. You should add a few more categories: Weeks @ #1, Associated Press poll, warm weather multiplier, and great real estate market booster ranker intensifier.

Edit; How does this even make sense?

U of North Carolina 1 1 2 4 4 4 6 6 9 11 12 13 - Twelve ranked (Power score 14.8);
U of Iowa 1 1 5 - Three ranked (Power score 32.1)

How in the world do you compare those 2 with those stats and get those power scores? Lol.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by JShephard
It did seem very helpful... until I saw "ranked first multiplying bonus" and "power score" ranking (with the top school having 81 points and anyone below 10th isn't even above 20.

There's nothing scientific about the data gathering, so why try to make the data mean more than it does. It's such a random sampling that you can hardly make any meaningful conclusions.

So yeah, somewhat useful - alongside a juvenile poorly designed pissing contest. You should add a few more categories: Weeks @ #1, Associated Press poll, warm weather multiplier, and great real estate market booster ranker intensifier.
DISCLAIMER: just answering a post here people, and he didn't put it on the dedicated thread.

Because it's fun and I've been bored! I like your category suggestions, I'll see what I can do haha.

I'll say it one more time--the big idea was just to have a place where people can look at ONE page instead of scrolling through 200 posts to see who has ranked their favorite program. Clearly people have been interested in it because over 1500 people have viewed it in the last 3 days.

I have to organize it SOMEHOW, and it seemed like a fun idea to come up with a "Power Score". Believe it or not, I put a lot of thought into the categories (and a lot of people have made suggestions). The reasons the "ranked first multiplier" affects the score so much is because someone else ranking their favorite program first is the single thing that affects another applicant most, i.e., I don't care if 30 people rank it second, as long as nobody else ranks it first, I'm golden! That's the idea anyway. Hence, program "1" with 5 people ranking it first (i.e., Carolinas) is way more "powerful" than a program which may have many more people ranking it but not as many ranking it first (i.e., Orlando) and will be harder to match into.

REGARDLESS, The whole thing is tongue in cheek, because it's just a self-parody of how we all act on SDN anyway.



EDIT: just saw your edit above. The reason it makes sense is because the AVERAGE ranking for UNC is lower (i.e., some people who interviewed there clearly didn't like it and ranked it low, whereas we have no evidence that this is true about Iowa). Also, Iowa has 8 PGY1 spots, and UNC has 10, which by definition makes it more competitive and harder for any one person to get a spot there. Indianapolis has 3 poeple that ranked it number one, but they are offering 19 positions. Maine Medical only has two number ones, but they are offering only 8, so 1/4 of their positions would already filled just by people on this forum. Hence, higher power score (though both are clearly in the upper tier so far).

Regardless, it's obviously silly to put too much stock in a few spots different, but the programs quite nicely stratify themselves into different groups. The more people that post their ROLs, the more significant the data becomes.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by JShephard
It did seem very helpful... until I saw "ranked first multiplying bonus" and "power score" ranking (with the top school having 81 points and anyone below 10th isn't even above 20.

There's nothing scientific about the data gathering, so why try to make the data mean more than it does. It's such a random sampling that you can hardly make any meaningful conclusions.

So yeah, somewhat useful - alongside a juvenile poorly designed pissing contest. You should add a few more categories: Weeks @ #1, Associated Press poll, warm weather multiplier, and great real estate market booster ranker intensifier.
DISCLAIMER: just answering a post here people, and he didn't put it on the dedicated thread.

Because it's fun and I've been bored! I like your category suggestions, I'll see what I can do haha.

I'll say it one more time--the big idea was just to have a place where people can look at ONE page instead of scrolling through 200 posts to see who has ranked their favorite program. Clearly people have been interested in it because over 1500 people have viewed it in the last 3 days.

I have to organize it SOMEHOW, and it seemed like a fun idea to come up with a "Power Score". Believe it or not, I put a lot of thought into the categories (and a lot of people have made suggestions). The reasons the "ranked first multiplier" affects the score so much is because someone else ranking their favorite program first is the single thing that affects another applicant most, i.e., I don't care if 30 people rank it second, as long as nobody else ranks it first, I'm golden! That's the idea anyway. Hence, program "1" with 5 people ranking it first (i.e., Carolinas) is way more "powerful" than a program which may have many more people ranking it but not as many ranking it first (i.e., Orlando) and will be harder to match into.

REGARDLESS, The whole thing is tongue in cheek, because it's just a self-parody of how we all act on SDN anyway.



EDIT: just saw your edit above. The reason it makes sense is because the AVERAGE ranking for UNC is lower (i.e., some people who interviewed there clearly didn't like it and ranked it low, whereas we have no evidence that this is true about Iowa). Also, Iowa has 8 PGY1 spots, and UNC has 10, which by definition makes it more competitive and harder for any one person to get a spot there. Indianapolis has 3 poeple that ranked it number one, but they are offering 19 positions. Maine Medical only has two number ones, but they are offering only 8, so 1/4 of their positions would already filled just by people on this forum. Hence, higher power score (though both are clearly in the upper tier so far).

Regardless, it's obviously silly to put too much stock in a few spots different, but the programs quite nicely stratify themselves into different groups. The more people that post their ROLs, the more significant the data becomes.

Power Score thing is entertaining...so far from perfect that its not even funny...but I do agree with ianjustle that a few, really high rankings are more signficant (couldn't get myself to type "more powerful" lol) than a handful of mediocre 7,8,9,10 ranks. Do think this supports my theory though that certain places tend to attract a personality-type or whatever that may be more-inclined to post their lists...i.e., to use your UNC vs. Iowa example, perhaps applicants who really like UNC or interviewed at UNC-similar places are more inclined to rank vs. applicants who like Iowa-type places...on the other hand....perhaps I'm bat-bleep f*cking crazy for even posting on such stupid notions myself....or....maybe Iowa still doesn't have internet yet ahahahahhahahahhahahaha...

That was stupid. What is happening to me?
 
Power Score thing is entertaining...so far from perfect that its not even funny...but I do agree with ianjustle that a few, really high rankings are more signficant (couldn't get myself to type "more powerful" lol) than a handful of mediocre 7,8,9,10 ranks. Do think this supports my theory though that certain places tend to attract a personality-type or whatever that may be more-inclined to post their lists...i.e., to use your UNC vs. Iowa example, perhaps applicants who really like UNC or interviewed at UNC-similar places are more inclined to rank vs. applicants who like Iowa-type places...on the other hand....perhaps I'm bat-bleep f*cking crazy for even posting on such stupid notions myself....or....maybe Iowa still doesn't have internet yet ahahahahhahahahhahahaha...
That was stupid. What is happening to me?

Feel bad now, normally I'd save such high praise for West Virginia.:D..or wherever Moonshiners was filmed.
 
How closely are the top 10 programs in the country ranked in the "Power Rankings"? I am an MS1 so I don't know much about what programs are considered elite and which are not, at least for EM.
 
How closely are the top 10 programs in the country ranked in the "Power Rankings"? I am an MS1 so I don't know much about what programs are considered elite and which are not, at least for EM.

The problem is In-N-Out, arguably the most powerful program in the country, isn't even on the list and neither is Chipotle's which even though a distant second in power is still second.

/thread jacking

PS: Sorry for the thread jacking Ian, I was bored, but I enjoyed your spreadsheet (gottem all laid out on my bed sheets - catch that reference).
 
How closely are the top 10 programs in the country ranked in the "Power Rankings"? I am an MS1 so I don't know much about what programs are considered elite and which are not, at least for EM.

There's no real consensus as to which programs are the "top 10" in the country--however, almost all the historical "big names" are in the top 20 or so in the current power score rankings. Off the top of my head based off reputation I would say Cinci, Denver, Carolinas, Vanderbilt, Harbor, LAC+USC, UNC, and Pittsburgh are probably in the "historical" top 10 and are all highly ranked in this highly arbitrary ranking :).

What I have found interesting is some programs that are not historical big names that have clearly garnered a lot of interest this season (such as Utah, Maine Medical, Indianapolis, etc).
 
The problem is In-N-Out, arguably the most powerful program in the country, isn't even on the list and neither is Chipotle's which even though a distant second in power is still second.

/thread jacking

PS: Sorry for the thread jacking Ian, I was bored, but I enjoyed your spreadsheet (gottem all laid out on my bed sheets - catch that reference).

Love the reference, I did get it :).
 
There's no real consensus as to which programs are the "top 10" in the country--however, almost all the historical "big names" are in the top 20 or so in the current power score rankings. Off the top of my head based off reputation I would say Cinci, Denver, Carolinas, Vanderbilt, Harbor, LAC+USC, UNC, and Pittsburgh are probably in the "historical" top 10 and are all highly ranked in this highly arbitrary ranking :).

What I have found interesting is some programs that are not historical big names that have clearly garnered a lot of interest this season (such as Utah, Maine Medical, Indianapolis, etc).

MMC is as strong as UNC. It's been around for 17 years now and the leadership is from Carolinas. Their former chair is now the chair at Carolinas. Personally I didn't think UNC was in the super elite group (however Emory would be if you're in the South.)
 
There's no real consensus as to which programs are the "top 10" in the country--however, almost all the historical "big names" are in the top 20 or so in the current power score rankings. Off the top of my head based off reputation I would say Cinci, Denver, Carolinas, Vanderbilt, Harbor, LAC+USC, UNC, and Pittsburgh are probably in the "historical" top 10 and are all highly ranked in this highly arbitrary ranking :).

What I have found interesting is some programs that are not historical big names that have clearly garnered a lot of interest this season (such as Utah, Maine Medical, Indianapolis, etc).

Thanks! It is definitely an interesting list, I was surprised to see Hopkins ranked so lowly. Appreciate the info!
 
Thanks! It is definitely an interesting list, I was surprised to see Hopkins ranked so lowly. Appreciate the info!

Top medical schools do not always top great residencies. This goes for all the different fields of medicine.
 
What I have found interesting is some programs that are not historical big names that have clearly garnered a lot of interest this season (such as Utah, Maine Medical, Indianapolis, etc).

You say that, and yet it's based on a non-random biased sample. And since when is Indy not a historical big name?

BTW, does anyone here seriously think UIC is anywhere near the least competitive EM program in the country?
 
Top medical schools do not always top great residencies. This goes for all the different fields of medicine.

Agreed. Remember, EM is a field different than almost any other field of medicine. In surgery, you want to be at the top institution in the country with that surgeon who is only 1 of a few to perform a certain procedure. If you're going to be at Neurosurgeon, you want to be at Johns Hopkins. For internal medicine, you want to be at the place with the world experts on certain disorders. You want to be at Mass General with that RheumoDermatoProctologist. However, with EM, this is not necessarily the case. In EM, applicants oftentimes want a program where they feel as if they will not have to compete with residents from other programs and where they feel as if EM has a lot of weight within the hospital. If you are at the super specialized hospital, that shoulder reduction might have to be done by the ortho PGY1 or 2, the peritonsilar abscess drained by the ENT resident, and the trauma run by the chief surgery resident.
 
Top medical schools do not always top great residencies. This goes for all the different fields of medicine.

Yes, I realized this, was just a casual observation. Baltimore has a ton of trauma and so I'd imagine that an EM resident there would be exposed to anything and everything. Not to mention they are building a brand new huge ED if I remember correctly. Hopkins is also a top hospital, not just a top medical school.
 
ugh... with every refresh of this excel file, I see my chance at my top program go down.... :scared:
 
Yes, I realized this, was just a casual observation. Baltimore has a ton of trauma and so I'd imagine that an EM resident there would be exposed to anything and everything. Not to mention they are building a brand new huge ED if I remember correctly. Hopkins is also a top hospital, not just a top medical school.

-99% of trauma in the state gets flown to shock trauma (which is at University of Maryland). Most of the trauma in Baltimore also goes to shock trauma as it is a world renowned facility. If I had a brain tumor, I would want to go to Hopkins. If I had been in an MVA or been stabbed/shot, I would want to go to shock trauma.

-I would say 50% of the programs I interviewed at were currently building a new ED or had finished one within the last few years. At the end of the day, the actual facilities should be low on your list. Obviously, there comes a point where the facilities become unacceptable to train in, but I never saw a program with this problem. If a program had 2 way mirrors, live music in the ED, and girls on roller skates providing food and drinks throughout my shift, I might factor in the facilities a little more.....oh, and some live animals while we are at it.

-Your parents will be more impressed if you say you did your residency at Hopkins, Mass General, or Columbia. Your future employers will be more impressed if you say you did your residency at Denver, Cinci, or Carolinas. The traditional power houses of EM aren't the same as other fields. With this being said, it all comes down to fit. If you find that you will be most comfortable at one of the well known hospitals and you really enjoy what their program has to offer rank them number 1. You will have made the right choice and will likely get wonderful training as there really are not any bad EM programs and they are all more similar than dissimilar. However, if you rank the program simply for the name, you will be making a huge mistake. When you interview at programs, you will get a "gut feeling" that tells you whether or not the program is right for you. I cannot explain how this works, and I don't know the science behind it, but everyone who interviews will tell you it exists.
 
-99% of trauma in the state gets flown to shock trauma (which is at University of Maryland). Most of the trauma in Baltimore also goes to shock trauma as it is a world renowned facility. If I had a brain tumor, I would want to go to Hopkins. If I had been in an MVA or been stabbed/shot, I would want to go to shock trauma.

-I would say 50% of the programs I interviewed at were currently building a new ED or had finished one within the last few years. At the end of the day, the actual facilities should be low on your list. Obviously, there comes a point where the facilities become unacceptable to train in, but I never saw a program with this problem. If a program had 2 way mirrors, live music in the ED, and girls on roller skates providing food and drinks throughout my shift, I might factor in the facilities a little more.....oh, and some live animals while we are at it.

-Your parents will be more impressed if you say you did your residency at Hopkins, Mass General, or Columbia. Your future employers will be more impressed if you say you did your residency at Denver, Cinci, or Carolinas. The traditional power houses of EM aren't the same as other fields. With this being said, it all comes down to fit. If you find that you will be most comfortable at one of the well known hospitals and you really enjoy what their program has to offer rank them number 1. You will have made the right choice and will likely get wonderful training as there really are not any bad EM programs and they are all more similar than dissimilar. However, if you rank the program simply for the name, you will be making a huge mistake. When you interview at programs, you will get a "gut feeling" that tells you whether or not the program is right for you. I cannot explain how this works, and I don't know the science behind it, but everyone who interviews will tell you it exists.

Mongo, thanks for this great post. I really appreciate the information. I will be sure to add to this forum in a couple of years when I am doing what you all are. Thanks again.
 
Just an update guys, updated the spreadsheet with about 10 new ranklists (most sent by PM). Carolinas has finally been surpassed by Utah, and Denver is making a late run! :) Enjoy...
 
Just an update guys, updated the spreadsheet with about 10 new ranklists (most sent by PM). Carolinas has finally been surpassed by Utah, and Denver is making a late run! :) Enjoy...

it would appear that the PGY 1 positions column doesnt line up to the correct programs
 
Just an update guys, updated the spreadsheet with about 10 new ranklists (most sent by PM). Carolinas has finally been surpassed by Utah, and Denver is making a late run! :) Enjoy...

I wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that these are lists posted to SDN. Because the classic SDN super power house EM names include Carolinas, Denver, Vanderbilt, Cinci, UNM, Harbor, USC and Indy and they all pop up in the top ten on your list.

I am not saying these programs aren't strong (heck I ranked one of them number 1), but I think it is one of those self perpetuating facts that had no bases other than showing up in a thread 10 years ago calling them power houses.

I think Utah is a legit season favorite as it is right on the mountains and is just a plain laid back group of people. UAB just got listed because it had three super high ranks and no bad ranks to weigh its average down.

In conclusion, I see this as a self perpetuating SDN cycle that someone said these programs are great, so SDN people are going to rank them accordingly.

Anyway, thanks for making the list, it was very fun to read and it is obvious it took a lot of work. Good luck on the match.
 
I wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that these are lists posted to SDN. Because the classic SDN super power house EM names include Carolinas, Denver, Vanderbilt, Cinci, UNM, Harbor, USC and Indy and they all pop up in the top ten on your list.

I am not saying these programs aren't strong (heck I ranked one of them number 1), but I think it is one of those self perpetuating facts that had no bases other than showing up in a thread 10 years ago calling them power houses.

I think Utah is a legit season favorite as it is right on the mountains and is just a plain laid back group of people. UAB just got listed because it had three super high ranks and no bad ranks to weigh its average down.

In conclusion, I see this as a self perpetuating SDN cycle that someone said these programs are great, so SDN people are going to rank them accordingly.


Anyway, thanks for making the list, it was very fun to read and it is obvious it took a lot of work. Good luck on the match.

:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:
 
Yes, I realized this, was just a casual observation. Baltimore has a ton of trauma and so I'd imagine that an EM resident there would be exposed to anything and everything. Not to mention they are building a brand new huge ED if I remember correctly. Hopkins is also a top hospital, not just a top medical school.

Not like Baltimore is any more special as a city than anywhere else though. I don't really get the med student notion that a place such as this will have "soo much more exposure!"....to what? Gunshot wounds? Assaults? Drug overdoses?....so what? A lot of this is pretty simple algorithm-type stuff.

The tough stuff is someone who walks in looking a just a little "iffy" but doesn't appear too sick.....and then bam...trainwreck city! and that can happen ANYWHERE, and sometimes is more common in more rural EDs.

But hey, if Baltimore is your kind of city, wow, more power to you bud!
 
I wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that these are lists posted to SDN. Because the classic SDN super power house EM names include Carolinas, Denver, Vanderbilt, Cinci, UNM, Harbor, USC and Indy and they all pop up in the top ten on your list.

I am not saying these programs aren't strong (heck I ranked one of them number 1), but I think it is one of those self perpetuating facts that had no bases other than showing up in a thread 10 years ago calling them power houses.

I think Utah is a legit season favorite as it is right on the mountains and is just a plain laid back group of people. UAB just got listed because it had three super high ranks and no bad ranks to weigh its average down.

In conclusion, I see this as a self perpetuating SDN cycle that someone said these programs are great, so SDN people are going to rank them accordingly.

Anyway, thanks for making the list, it was very fun to read and it is obvious it took a lot of work. Good luck on the match.

Quite a few in my class ranked UAB over Emory, Vandy, UNC, Wake, Michigan, SLU, Denver, UNM, Utah, OHSU, UW, etc. Seems like a nice place once you talk to them.
 
yep. UAB is a beast program. I kind of regret declining my interview, but I dont think Birmingham and me would have gelled.

Furthering the point, its about fit and location to most.
 
yep. UAB is a beast program. I kind of regret declining my interview, but I dont think Birmingham and me would have gelled.

Furthering the point, its about fit and location to most.

Concur with above--I'm regretting having to turn down my UAB interview. No issue with B'ham--interviewed there for med school and liked it, but couldn't fit it into my schedule this year. I'm hearing great things about it from several sources though, and had a chance to meet the PD at a conference and was impressed.
 
5 more rank lists submitted and updated! Thanks for all the PM rank lists, they will improve our super project! BTW, we finally found someone who DIDN'T like Carolinas, wreaking havoc on its POWER SCORE! Vote for your favorites by posting more ROLs!

:)
 
Also, ORMC finally received it's first number 1 vote! Hooray, I thought it would never happen.
 
out of curiosity I went into NRMP to see how many EM categorical spots are participating in the match, apparently there are 164, our list only has 154. Also, I found this weird EM category

EM/SACM -> Emory has one, Central Michigan, Baylor etc... with only 1-2 spots per program... anyone have any idea what this SACM is? Also there are some International EM residency spots again 1-2 per program. Hmmmmm
 
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