Advice: Investing path savings (after Coronavirus).

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I'm sure the economy will recover. But I'm not sure at all we've hit bottom yet. Our infection/death curves are still in the exponential growth phase of the chart, and we've only just begun locking down a small percentage of counties/states. To me that implies we're just starting, and from what we've seen in countries that are in later phases this is a 2-3 month (at least) process. I still believe many smaller companies or even large companies with large debts are going to start defaulting and everything has further to fall. I'm still about half exposed to equities but took some big losses on the other half and holding in cash for now. I plan to revisit in a month or so, and will likely only buy very safe stocks/index ETFs for now or do some small day trades.

The economy has not hit the bottom but the markets may have, given the massive liquidity and cash the FED and now Congress have pumped into the market.

It is hard to know. They could inflate the hell out of everything which would create HUGE UPSIDE RISK.

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The economy has not hit the bottom but the markets may have, given the massive liquidity and cash the FED and now Congress have pumped into the market.

It is hard to know. They could inflate the hell out of everything which would create HUGE UPSIDE RISK.
Got to agree here.

The market had its worst week last week since 1929- without ANY jobs data, without any earnings reports. People (and their automated algorithmic counterparts) dumped everything fearing the worst. OK, now the worst is realized- this will go on for a few months at least. But companies like Ford and GM were selling at 70% and 90% of book value, meaning the shares were cheaper that the assets on paper for these companies. So GM and Ford, who maintain a fair amount of cash on-hand, will have terrible (or no) sales for a few months at least. You are still buying them for cents on the dollar. They are likely to survive this mess no matter what. Yes, there will be more unemployed, and businesses will go under. But my guess all of this was already priced in to the current market conditions, so I acted. Now, only the future will tell if I was right or not, but I thought (LA's move) shorting the market after such a quick and deep loss seemed like a pretty desperate move. And you gotta be dispassionate here. you saw calamity and I saw opportunity. Herd mentality will dictate how this ultimately goes.

I took losses for tax purposes, cashing out of F and taking that same money and putting it in GM. The net effect is likely that they will both recover exactly the same, but on the books I took a 50% loss on my stake at F. I tried to do this as well with XOM and CVX but my limit sells didn't hit, now it's probably too late (I really missed out here as CVX is up like 30% since then).
 
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Getting killed atm, retirement is looking officially off the table for now....The Federal reserve is literally making the entire market, no fundamentals, no concern whatsoever consumer demand is going to zero and no clue that on the coastal areas the 1200 buck stimulus will eaten by just rent and food instantly.

Starbucks, leisure travel, new cars, upgraded homes are a thing of the past.

The thieves who engineered this crisis will remain wealthy, living on vast estates with income in tropical countries well hidden. No way to compete with mf'ers who have the power move a 50 trillion dollar capital market to be able to carve out $2.4 billion for themselves with just a 17 minute interview....

We are all suckers at the end of this. Going to get drunk. Peace out.
I thought you were making millions in VIX trading-wish i'd bought BA Monday morning
 
I have used today's rally to buy IAU (Gold). I believe this limits my UPSIDE RISK in the event of inflation and has limited downside risk as a flight to protection. I recommend everyone have a years of expenses available in Cash and a fair amount of IAU also in addition to Equity. I also recommend that you have CASH AMMUNITION in the event we hit a NEW MULTI YEAR LOW IN EQUITIES.

I have used today's rally to sell 20% of my equities. Put half into cash for portential buying opportunities and half into GOLD.
 
I thought you were making millions in VIX trading-wish i'd bought BA Monday morning

This VIRUS was an ENORMOUS GIFT for BA. This bought them time to get their **** together and will give them CHEAP DEBT and BAILOUT MONEY.
 
Im almost done with the stock market...the game is completely rigged by all sensible limits.

Bill Ackman was allowed to go onto CNBC financial news during prime time and give an interview where he literally gets up choked up and cries about impending apocalypse and how "Hell is coming" only to have made 2.4 billion dollars in a short position at the same time. His buddies at a different hedge fund/private equity did the same thing the following day only to one-up Ackman by claiming "Hell is already here!"

Both interviews obliterated HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS EVEN TRILLIONS of dollars of company value and wealth for average hard working Americans, including many actually battling this virus and sick/dying patients.

Bernie Sanders is an old tired Communist, but on some key things he is absolutely dead on. We need a revolution, not an election.

In full disclosure: I have the mother of all short positions on the S&P and tomorrow is the jobs report (3/26/20). If I have nailed it, I will be wealthy by any yardstick, if I failed I stand to lose a literal fortune (and my brother stands to lose his entire net worth).

Holy cow. LA's monster S&P short position yesterday was a huge mistake. I am assuming he and his bro lost a dumptruck of cash today.

All I did today was do a little tax loss harvesting. If you're going to speculate, I would divide your assets into little 5% increments and play with small portions at a time.
 
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Investing and dealing with the nuances of the market used to be challenging and time consuming. To make it easy and require essentially no time, I chose an asset mix that would support my lifestyle, let me sleep at night, left it alone and gave it all to Vanguard. This will never change.


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Holy cow. LA's monster S&P short position yesterday was a huge mistake. I am assuming he and his bro lost a dumptruck of cash today.

All I did today was do a little tax loss harvesting. If you're going to speculate, I would divide your assets into little 5% increments and play with small portions at a time.


Im not getting shaken out of my short position just yet. But yah, taking a beating from hell. Still up 650K total since Feb 23rd tho.

Now tell me, is a market functioning well when the biggest unemployment numbers in all of American history are unveiled and the market instead RALLIES?? Who is buying stocks? What idiot is calling a bottom here? When our numbers are nowhere near having peaked, many places are still behind the infection grow curve from NYC and not just the mortgage back security market is teetering on the edge, but all of industry. This is 2008 on steroids and there we got a 60% drop from top to bottom. So Im guessing 70-85% top to bottom is very fair and even conservative.

There is a 100% chance that all these jobs are not coming back even if the crisis ended today at 5pm. If it goes on for months, then most of the jobs will not come back.

I may stay in short position until I need to cover, because I can pretty bet the farm the real ****show hasnt even remotely kicked off yet.
 
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I thought you were making millions in VIX trading-wish i'd bought BA Monday morning

The feds are actively manipulating the VIX, short positions on the S&P and Dow and likely commodity prices as well as obviously the bond market.

If anyone is still long stocks, now will be THE time to get out. Trust me.
 
Im not getting shaken out of my short position just yet. But yah, taking a beating from hell. Still up 650K total since Feb 23rd tho.

Now tell me, is a market functioning well when the biggest unemployment numbers in all of American history are unveiled and the market instead RALLIES?? Who is buying stocks? What idiot is calling a bottom here? When our numbers are nowhere near having peaked, many places are still behind the infection grow curve from NYC and not just the mortgage back security market is teetering on the edge, but all of industry. This is 2008 on steroids and there we got a 60% drop from top to bottom. So Im guessing 70-85% top to bottom is very fair and even conservative.

There is a 100% chance that all these jobs are not coming back even if the crisis ended today at 5pm. If it goes on for months, then most of the jobs will not come back.

I may stay in short position until I need to cover, because I can pretty bet the farm the real ****show hasnt even remotely kicked off yet.
I agree. I bet the S&P will drop tomorrow. I would still cover my short position ASAP. This degree of short term volatility is unprecedented.
 
"Don't fight the Fed." - Marty Zweig

In my nontrading accounts I have been buying tech both at a sector level (QQQ) as well as some individual stocks (TWLO, PS, NTNX).

In the funny money account, I've started nibbling at some SPXS OTM LEAP puts. Hedging with a small TVIX position.
 
The feds are actively manipulating the VIX, short positions on the S&P and Dow and likely commodity prices as well as obviously the bond market.

If anyone is still long stocks, now will be THE time to get out. Trust me.

Absolute confirmation that the two emotions that control the market are fear and greed.


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"Don't fight the Fed." - Marty Zweig

In my nontrading accounts I have been buying tech both at a sector level (QQQ) as well as some individual stocks (TWLO, PS, NTNX).

In the funny money account, I've started nibbling at some SPXS OTM LEAP puts. Hedging with a small TVIX position.

Nope. I doubled down. I now have a 1 million dollar short position on the S&P. I know am I right. And I will leave this train wreck either CARRYING MY SHIELD OR ON IT.

This is the single most absurd rally I have yet seen. It has bear trap written on every side of it in glowing neon letters with flashing signs and fireworks overhead.
 
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Welcome to Hose Town, USA. You're about to experience a massive rectal prolapse, LaDoc00 ... don't be like Mortimer Duke from Trading Places shouting, "Turn those machines back on!!! Turn those machines back on!!!" when this doesn't go in your favor.
 
Folks- what is a relatively straightforward way to insure my stock portfolio against possible, further catastrophic meltdown of SPY500? Am mostly an index, diversified AA kind of guy with 80% stock and 20% bonds+cash in my 401ks. Still, the 20% portfolio paper loss last month feels brutal, and am more worried about a further and steeper crash over next 2 months (as obliterated EPS, still further declining employment and other virus bad news show up). Of course I could be wrong and we may see new ATHs as Fed money lifts everything up....but want to put up a hedge to soften the blow if it comes.

Never traded options and maybe I don't have enough time to learn it...Was looking into some leveraged, inverse ETFs but realize they come with their own unique compounding / decay issues to serve as good hedges? Maybe I should just shift a portion of stocks into bonds/ cash or defensive sectors? Generally try to avoid market timing but feel in this scenario it may be worth deviating from my usual rules.

Any input appreciated- thanks!
 
Folks- what is a relatively straightforward way to insure my stock portfolio against possible, further catastrophic meltdown of SPY500? Am mostly an index, diversified AA kind of guy with 80% stock and 20% bonds+cash in my 401ks. Still, the 20% portfolio paper loss last month feels brutal, and am more worried about a further and steeper crash over next 2 months (as obliterated EPS, still further declining employment and other virus bad news show up). Of course I could be wrong and we may see new ATHs as Fed money lifts everything up....but want to put up a hedge to soften the blow if it comes.

Never traded options and maybe I don't have enough time to learn it...Was looking into some leveraged, inverse ETFs but realize they come with their own unique compounding / decay issues to serve as good hedges? Maybe I should just shift a portion of stocks into bonds/ cash or defensive sectors? Generally try to avoid market timing but feel in this scenario it may be worth deviating from my usual rules.

Any input appreciated- thanks!

If you are YOUNG, then your HEDGE IS TIME and you are actually LONG CASH AND SHORT EQUITY right now.

If you are OLD, then you should NOT have 80% stock.
 
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Of note, I don't think the US stock markets have bottomed yet.
 
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Holy cow. LA's monster S&P short position yesterday was a huge mistake. I am assuming he and his bro lost a dumptruck of cash today.

All I did today was do a little tax loss harvesting. If you're going to speculate, I would divide your assets into little 5% increments and play with small portions at a time.


Coming back today. I dont have near term expirations and IF we test the lows next week or the week after as many think we will....one word: WINNING
 
I guess there seem to be two groups of stock investors. One group believes Trump - that the crisis will be short-lived. The other group believes that the crisis will be longer-lived with significant numbers of bankruptcies, high unemployment, and a global recession (possible depression).

As physicians, we can better see / understand the severity of the coronavirus pandemic. Others (mostly non-physicians) are in denial or unrealistically optimistic.
 
I guess there seem to be two groups of stock investors. One group believes Trump - that the crisis will be short-lived. The other group believes that the crisis will be longer-lived with significant numbers of bankruptcies, high unemployment, and a global recession (possible depression).

As physicians, we can better see / understand the severity of the coronavirus pandemic. Others (mostly non-physicians) are in denial or unrealistically optimistic.
I'm not sure that summarizes the opinions. I think that "short lived" is obviously both loaded and open to interpretation. The question is, even if a lockdown ensues nationwide (quite possible) and lasts a month, when that is over, what will ensue? will things get back to normal? No one can argue that the conditions that brought on the great depression and the market crash in 1929 have anything in common with what is happening now. Or even what happened in 2008. Why would the market behave the same way? And even if the conditions were EXACTLY the same, would the market react the same? I would think absolutely not.
And if this is end of times type scenario wherein the virus wipes out 5% of the population, targeting medical professionals, and sends everything into chaos for 35+ years- then there is unlikely to be any type of winning strategy because we are all in for a world of hurt.
 
Rather than just give people free money, I wish they would make people earn it. Let's get people outside planting trees, working on roads and infrastructure. Like my daddy taught me "many hands make light work".
 
Rather than just give people free money, I wish they would make people earn it. Let's get people outside planting trees, working on roads and infrastructure. Like my daddy taught me "many hands make light work".
Sounds like the "new deal"... I wholeheartedly agree. If I was dictator of this "republic" this is what I would do for the stimulus (I call it the New New Deal Deal):

Jobs program:
1. Appeal directly to low-income wage workers who have lost their jobs to become the engine of the works program. Wages commensurate with level of service performed and experience required
2. Stimulate the Path market by offering serology-based COVID-19 testing to all applicants. Only those that have seroconverted and are thus immune from infection can be hired. This number will be low at first but eventually become sufficient. I estimate based on current numbers that there are about 600K IgM positive individuals.

Food Aid and Essentials program:
1. Buy large quantities of staple food and necessary items from US farms and producers: flour, eggs, potatoes, toilet paper, etc.
2. Use workers to create a food creation and food distribution network
3. Allow qualified individuals (who have lost their income or are below a certain household income level) to register for basic essential items
4. Deliver basic food items (bread, flour eggs, etc) and household items to qualified households
5. After the crisis this program can be maintained to support low-income families if needed

Housing Mortgage and Rent Support program:
1. For households that have at least one head of household wage and are below an established household income (determined by region), they qualify to: forbear on their loans until the economic crisis is declared over
2. All mortgage fees or interest accrued over forbearance period is paid by the government
3. Evictions will be suspended for these individuals if they fail to meet Rental requirements over this same period.
4. Property owners who lose Rents as above will be entitled to the same Forbearance of mortgage payments

Business Support program:
1. Delay Tax payments until the end of the economic crisis
2. Businesses that are shut down due to "shelter in place" will have the ability to take similar Rental/Mortgage support as above to not lose their place of business during the crisis
3. Businesses in sectors that are selected as hart hit by this crisis that remain open and keep a minimum of 75% of their workforce will be granted special tax incentives

/all I got for now
 
Screw all this, we’re all “special” and “ rich doctors”.what is the problem?Just sell at the bottom( you know, the bell ) and then, with the collective “ Doctor wisdom and experience phenomenon “ Just buy when our physician puppet masters have said it is time.

Again, I posit, I have and continue to follow sensible strategy like Vanguard. Just don’t do STUPID things out of fear or greed.


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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Lost the opportunity to take advantage of all the whacked out NAVs on the bond ETF/CEFs. The muni discounts were ridiculous, and I missed out on adding to my PML positions because I was too busy fiddling with the vol products. That's what happens when you hold off on your rebalancing.

SPXS short working. Vol might get crushed soon. But if you don't know what I'm talking about, just continue your regular contributions to your Vanguard target date fund.
 
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Lost the opportunity to take advantage of all the whacked out NAVs on the bond ETF/CEFs. The muni discounts were ridiculous, and I missed out on adding to my PML positions because I was too busy fiddling with the vol products. That's what happens when you hold off on your rebalancing.

SPXS short working. Vol might get crushed soon. But if you don't know what I'm talking about, just continue your regular contributions to your Vanguard target date fund.

i can’t contribute anymore adrian. too old. live off dividends and cg distributions. enough to replace my income.that was kinda my financial goal.


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Question: Why are stocks so pricey when the US is at risk for 32% unemployment (source: CNBC)?

Answer: Denial... caused by human stupidity + mis-information spread by politicians, financial experts, and some news outlets.

Perspective: Stocks rallied and remain pricey at the news of the risk of 32% unemployment in the US.

Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates
 
Question: Why are stocks so pricey when the US is at risk for 32% unemployment (source: CNBC)?

Answer: Denial... caused by human stupidity + mis-information spread by politicians, financial experts, and some news outlets.

Perspective: Stocks rallied and remain pricey at the news of the risk of 32% unemployment in the US.

Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates
Agree, and I am definitely not buying much yet. I don't see any indicator that makes me believe this market has truly bottomed yet. I don't trust China's numbers saying their manufacturing increased last month (selling those goods to who in this global shutdown??), and I don't think the reality of this shutdown has even hit businesses/banks/investors yet.
 
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Now: The DJIA is around 22,000.

Future: Where will the DJIA be once coronavirus has spread throughout the USA? When everyone directly knows someone who died of the virus? When denial is replaced with depression?

Bottom Line: DJIA is living in fantasy land. Wait until reality sets in. (Denial is powerful.)
 
Now: The DJIA is around 22,000.

Future: Where will the DJIA be once coronavirus has spread throughout the USA? When everyone directly knows someone who died of the virus? When denial is replaced with depression?

Bottom Line: DJIA is living in fantasy land. Wait until reality sets in. (Denial is powerful.)

Sell everything you have and go off the grid and stay there for 15 years. After YOUR reality has set in my cohort will do fine.


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The USA will survive the coronavirus pandemic - but denial will make things worse.

America will recover! I support America 100%!
 
Sell everything you have and go off the grid and stay there for 15 years. After YOUR reality has set in my cohort will do fine.


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The problem is denial.

"Nine cruise ships and nearly 8,000 passengers are stranded at sea as major ports deny access to the vessels as the coronavirus continues to spread."

Why is ANYONE on a cruise???

Is this party-time?

No, this is a VIRAL PANDEMIC!

 
The problem is denial.

"Nine cruise ships and nearly 8,000 passengers are stranded at sea as major ports deny access to the vessels as the coronavirus continues to spread."

Why is ANYONE on a cruise???

Is this party-time?

No, this is a VIRAL PANDEMIC!


Settle down! Certainly it is panic, confusion, meltdown, etc.
Fortunes are built out of this.


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Exactly, act like a one percenter and make your fortune now. This is a time of opportunity.

Anyone know anything about starting a crematorium?
 
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I smell blood in the markets gentlemen. There will be blood.

In the end I'm just an oil man, plain speaking.
SS.ThereWillBeBlood.jpg
 
Are there ETFs of companies with solid balance sheets that will survive the pandemic? Mega cap ETF? Large cap with high yields?

Thoughts? Recommendations?
 
Sounds like the "new deal"... I wholeheartedly agree. If I was dictator of this "republic" this is what I would do for the stimulus (I call it the New New Deal Deal):

Jobs program:
1. Appeal directly to low-income wage workers who have lost their jobs to become the engine of the works program. Wages commensurate with level of service performed and experience required
2. Stimulate the Path market by offering serology-based COVID-19 testing to all applicants. Only those that have seroconverted and are thus immune from infection can be hired. This number will be low at first but eventually become sufficient. I estimate based on current numbers that there are about 600K IgM positive individuals.

Food Aid and Essentials program:
1. Buy large quantities of staple food and necessary items from US farms and producers: flour, eggs, potatoes, toilet paper, etc.
2. Use workers to create a food creation and food distribution network
3. Allow qualified individuals (who have lost their income or are below a certain household income level) to register for basic essential items
4. Deliver basic food items (bread, flour eggs, etc) and household items to qualified households
5. After the crisis this program can be maintained to support low-income families if needed

Housing Mortgage and Rent Support program:
1. For households that have at least one head of household wage and are below an established household income (determined by region), they qualify to: forbear on their loans until the economic crisis is declared over
2. All mortgage fees or interest accrued over forbearance period is paid by the government
3. Evictions will be suspended for these individuals if they fail to meet Rental requirements over this same period.
4. Property owners who lose Rents as above will be entitled to the same Forbearance of mortgage payments

Business Support program:
1. Delay Tax payments until the end of the economic crisis
2. Businesses that are shut down due to "shelter in place" will have the ability to take similar Rental/Mortgage support as above to not lose their place of business during the crisis
3. Businesses in sectors that are selected as hart hit by this crisis that remain open and keep a minimum of 75% of their workforce will be granted special tax incentives

/all I got for now

I bet we end up with a version of the new deal pretty soon. I don't see any other way to survive this.
 
Are there ETFs of companies with solid balance sheets that will survive the pandemic? Mega cap ETF? Large cap with high yields?

Thoughts? Recommendations?
Why are some ETFs who own tankers such as TNK doing so well in this adversarial environment ??????????????????????PS-NEVERMIND-they are being rented as storage for oil contango- now on to LUCKIN COFFEE
 
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At this point investing strategy should hinge most on whether or not you’ll have a job / usual steady income flow in the next month and beyond.

If your job is secure keep investing regularly into the market, while keeping a cash: equity ratio that suits your comfort level & with at least enough cash to live 12 months without touching equities.
 
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I am honestly thinking about getting into the cremation business. Seems like a no brainer.
 
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At this point investing strategy should hinge most on whether or not you’ll have a job / usual steady income flow in the next month and beyond.

If your job is secure keep investing regularly into the market, while keeping a cash: equity ratio that suits your comfort level & with at least enough cash to live 12 months without touching equities.

I am more comfortable with about 3 years of cash. Markets can be pretty slow.(retired)


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1 year of cash? 3 years of cash? damn I've got to get out of academics. But at least for now it's relatively stable. Too big to fail?
 
I am honestly thinking about getting into the cremation business. Seems like a no brainer.

by the time you get your business set up death rates will drop. Not worth the headache. Probably have to get certification as well which will prob be delayed, deltaying your business from being set up and ready to go even further.
 
by the time you get your business set up death rates will drop. Not worth the headache. Probably have to get certification as well which will prob be delayed, deltaying your business from being set up and ready to go even further.
How about hoarding all shovel supplies? Maybe quicker way to maximize profits?
 
How about hoarding all shovel supplies? Maybe quicker way to maximize profits?

lol cant imagine the looks on people’s faces if you bought all the shovels from the local stores. Burial folks already have shovels. It’s reusable. Not like toilet paper
 
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