NRMP Match Data 2015

[TheaterOfTheme]

The amount of AMGs is still 9,000 less than residency spots. I understand that school expansion is faster than ever right now, but won't it just ultimately push IMGs out? Even if there are 10 new DO and MD schools opening in the next 5 years with an avg. of 200 students and no new residency spots, there will still be 7,000 more residency spots than AMGs.

"In addition to U.S. allopathic seniors, 2,949 osteopathic medical school students and graduates submitted program preferences for this year’s Match, an increase of more than 200. Their match rate to first-year positions rose to 79.3 percent, the highest ever."

What happens to the rest of the DOs if there is only an 80% NRMP match rate? Do they wait until the next cycle?

http://www.nrmp.org/press-release-2...r-30000-residency-positions-in-4756-programs/

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[IslandStyle808]

Your calculations are not including AOA positions which will be fully accounted for by 2020. Even with those new schools opening, there will still be spots left over if you include the AOA match. For the DO students that don't match, they can choose to SCRAMBLE or SOAP. The placement rate of DOs is still at 99.41%. This number won't tank anytime soon.

 

[TheaterOfTheme]

Your calculations are not including AOA positions which will be fully accounted for by 2020. Even with those new schools opening, there will still be spots left over if you include the AOA match. For the DO students that don't match, they can choose to SCRAMBLE or SOAP. The placement rate of DOs is still at 99.41%. This number won't tank anytime soon.

Right--in this case there will be more than the surplus that I calculated after the initial match. Is this a 'sky is falling' mentality to fear new DO schools for this particular reason?


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[Rekt]

Right--in this case there will be more than the surplus that I calculated after the initial match. Is this a 'sky is falling' mentality to fear new DO schools for this particular reason?


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I think most people are aware there's currently enough spots.
More people are concerned with how DO graduate placement will be allocated, essentially being pushed mainly into primary care only by the merger.

 

[IslandStyle808]

Right--in this case there will be more than the surplus that I calculated after the initial match. Is this a 'sky is falling' mentality to fear new DO schools for this particular reason?


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The issue is as stated above by @Rekt, that DO students may be pushed into primary care spots. This and the fact that DO students could be filtered out of top to mid tier programs in both primary care and specialty spots, due to the increase of both MD and DO students. It is more of an issue for the below average DO student though.

 

[deleted564680]

The overall sense of the merger is definitely one of decreased DO specialization. This is for multiple reasons:
1. The main path for specialization in surgical fields for DOs was through the AOA match and anywhere from 10-40% of these will close with another 10-20% of them "merging" with an existing ACGME program. Both outcomes leave less spots for DOs
2. All specialties so far have not applied for "osteopathic distinction" and thus there is no barrier for MDs to gain entry into these spots
3. Upper and mid-upper tier ACGME programs are not going to get rid of their DO bias anytime soon

Likely, DOs will be upwards of 70-80% primary care/ less competitive specialists in the coming years. Extremely competitive specialties will become VERY hard for DOs to get in the future.

 

[GUH]

The issue is as stated above by @Rekt, that DO students may be pushed into primary care spots. This and the fact that DO students could be filtered out of top to mid tier programs in both primary care and specialty spots, due to the increase of both MD and DO students. It is more of an issue for the below average DO student though.

About half of DO students are below average, which is quite a few. Maybe not on SDN though.

 

[NurWollen]

The overall sense of the merger is definitely one of decreased DO specialization. This is for multiple reasons:
1. The main path for specialization in surgical fields for DOs was through the AOA match and anywhere from 10-40% of these will close with another 10-20% of them "merging" with an existing ACGME program. Both outcomes leave less spots for DOs
2. All specialties so far have not applied for "osteopathic distinction" and thus there is no barrier for MDs to gain entry into these spots
3. Upper and mid-upper tier ACGME programs are not going to get rid of their DO bias anytime soon

Likely, DOs will be upwards of 70-80% primary care/ less competitive specialists in the coming years. Extremely competitive specialties will become VERY hard for DOs to get in the future.

Just curious where you got that stats on the number of surgical spots closing and/or merging with other programs.

Either way, I think the AOA did grossly overestimate the amount of interest there would be in AOA recognition. O think they (and many of us) assumed all the existing AOA programs would become Osteopathic-recognized programs. Obviously not true at all.

 

[kenjixshadow]

Just curious where you got that stats on the number of surgical spots closing and/or merging with other programs.

Either way, I think the AOA did grossly overestimate the amount of interest there would be in AOA recognition. O think they (and many of us) assumed all the existing AOA programs would become Osteopathic-recognized programs. Obviously not true at all.

This tells us how popular OMM is.

 

[TheaterOfTheme]

I guess this all demonstrates the power of the ACGME. So rads, surgery specialties, and derm will be hit -- what about EM, PM&R, psych etc? Couldn't the merger promote more DOs in specialties like these as they already take so many?


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[kenjixshadow]

I guess this all demonstrates the power of the ACGME. So rads, surgery specialties, and derm will be hit -- what about EM, PM&R, psych etc? Couldn't the merger promote more DOs in specialties like these as they already take so many?

Switch Rads and EM. Yes for PM&R and Psych and no for EM in the current climate -- DOs will still be fairly well represented in EM, but don't expect an increasing of number of DOs matching into EM each year. Anything from moderate to ultra competitive residencies will squeeze out DOs to the lesser ones, according to SDN.

 

[Postictal Raiden]

I guess this all demonstrates the power of the ACGME. So rads, surgery specialties, and derm will be hit -- what about EM, PM&R, psych etc? Couldn't the merger promote more DOs in specialties like these as they already take so many?


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I've said this before. For every Derm/ENT/Ortho/Uro/Ophtho spot that is lost to an MD applicant, a potential solid IM/Neuro/Gas/EM/etc... spot becomes available for grab. Yeah, DOs will probably get the shorter end of the stick when it comes to these super competitive fields, but I anticipate that other specialties will be more attainable for DOs.

 

[GUH]

I've said this before. For every Derm/ENT/Ortho/Uro/Ophtho spot that is lost to an MD applicant, a potential solid IM/Neuro/Gas/EM/etc... spot becomes available for grab. Yeah, DOs will probably get the shorter end of the stick when it comes to these super competitive fields, but I anticipate that other specialties will be more attainable for DOs.

This is a good point. However, we should remember that former AOA programs in those mid-tier specialties will also now be taking MDs, which will counter the effect you mentioned.

 

[GUH]

This tells us how popular OMM is.

I'm not convinced that it's as much opposition to OMM as it is just not wanting to have to jump through any extra hoops for a benefit of questionable added value.

 

[IslandStyle808]

I've said this before. For every Derm/ENT/Ortho/Uro/Ophtho spot that is lost to an MD applicant, a potential solid IM/Neuro/Gas/EM/etc... spot becomes available for grab. Yeah, DOs will probably get the shorter end of the stick when it comes to these super competitive fields, but I anticipate that other specialties will be more attainable for DOs.

This is a good point. However, we should remember that former AOA programs in those mid-tier specialties will also now be taking MDs, which will counter te effect you mentioned.

It is a bit more than this. Ibn Alnafis MD's scenario would be true if the amount of students stays the same. However, the amount of students are increasing on both the MD and DO end. So with the AOA spots up for grab, this helps (if only slightly) those MD student who would not matched into those competitive specialties only ACGME match existed for them. The problem is that DO students "could be" shafted in both the specialty and quality of residencies, considering that programs have to find a way to filter its applicants (there is the potential not getting a solid IM/Neuro/Gas/EM because of the filtering of DO students altogether for certain programs). However, this is a worst case scenario and may not happen.

 

[IslandStyle808]

I guess this all demonstrates the power of the ACGME. So rads, surgery specialties, and derm will be hit -- what about EM, PM&R, psych etc? Couldn't the merger promote more DOs in specialties like these as they already take so many?


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PM&R and psych don't need anymore promotion, you got DOs matching into top tier residencies pre-merger. However, what it could do potentially is having those applicants who were stolen by the AOA match actually matching into these ACGME residency that would have taken them (and I mean the highly competitive specialities when I say this). So in a best case scenario it would mean one more applicant matching into a former AOA spots that would have been taken by the person who would have matched into an ACMGE residency. [Yep, this contradicts my last post and I have no problem with that]

 

[IsWhat]

With the reimbursement cuts to specialists - does no one else see the irony in all of this? DO's are flooding primary care specialties with increasing reimbursement and better lifestyle's, which are characteristics of specialties that are becoming more and more enticing to millennials. DO's will be fine in the future I presume, and doors will be open for the DO's who choose to enter the more historically competetive specialties - such as surgery, etc.

 

[the argus]

Likely, DOs will be upwards of 70-80% primary care/ less competitive specialists in the coming years. Extremely competitive specialties will become VERY hard for DOs to get in the future.

Extremely competitive specialties are already, and always have been, very hard for DOs. The amount of DOs matching in these specialties through the allo route is negligible (i.e. 3 in ortho last year, 2 in ENT, 5 derm, 1 rad onc, 0 neurosurg). And the number of positions in these fields through the AOA match is exceedingly small (13 neurosurg, 121 ortho, 19 ENT, urology 22, derm 56, ophtho 16) compared to the number of DO grads each year (>5000).

The vast majority of DO grads already go into primary care specialties.

 

[GUH]

Extremely competitive specialties are already, and always have been, very hard for DOs. The amount of DOs matching in these specialties through the allo route is negligible (i.e. 3 in ortho last year, 2 in ENT, 5 derm, 1 rad onc, 0 neurosurg). And the number of positions in these fields through the AOA match is exceedingly small (13 neurosurg, 121 ortho, 19 ENT, urology 22, derm 56, ophtho 16) compared to the number of DO grads each year (>5000).

The vast majority of DO grads already go into primary care specialties.

It was more like 2/3 last I heard. And that included IM. And your own numbers show that losing the DO-only spots would make a large impact on top DO students trying to match into those specialties.

 

[TheaterOfTheme]

It was more like 2/3 last I heard. And that included IM. And your own numbers show that losing the DO-only spots would make a large impact on top DO students trying to match into those specialties.

So basically, mid-ranked MDs take the top specialties from the AOA and DOs grab up their ACGME spots in IM/EM/etc. It is like a switch, essentially. And this assumes the the mid-ranked MD wants derm/ortho/etc (sure many do).


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[GUH]

So basically, mid-ranked MDs take the top specialties from the AOA and DOs grab up their ACGME spots in IM/EM/etc. It is like a switch, essentially. And this assumes the the mid-ranked MD wants derm/ortho/etc (sure many do).

Again, this does not take into account the fact that lower to mid-ranked MDs will also now be competing for the IM/EM/etc. spots that used to be only for DOs.

 

[Goro]

The major purpose of the AOA/ACGME merger was to squeeze out the IMGs, particularly the Carib diploma mill grads who went there to skirt the rigor of the med schools screening process.

So yes, in time the IMGs will be squeezed out. That bus is coming.

What we will probably also see is that DOs will match predominantly into Primary Care, and MD grads into specialties. It's an evolutionary process. remember, at one time, surgeons were to be considered physicians. Don't believe me? Look at the official name of Columbia's med school.

The amount of AMGs is still 9,000 less than residency spots. I understand that school expansion is faster than ever right now, but won't it just ultimately push IMGs out? Even if there are 10 new DO and MD schools opening in the next 5 years with an avg. of 200 students and no new residency spots, there will still be 7,000 more residency spots than AMGs.

"In addition to U.S. allopathic seniors, 2,949 osteopathic medical school students and graduates submitted program preferences for this year’s Match, an increase of more than 200. Their match rate to first-year positions rose to 79.3 percent, the highest ever."

What happens to the rest of the DOs if there is only an 80% NRMP match rate? Do they wait until the next cycle?

http://www.nrmp.org/press-release-2...r-30000-residency-positions-in-4756-programs/

 

[TheaterOfTheme]

Again, this does not take into account the fact that lower to mid-ranked MDs will also now be competing for the IM/EM/etc. spots that used to be only for DOs.

Good point. So ones that would have been FM otherwise? There always has to be exchange, somehow...

 

[TheaterOfTheme]

The major purpose of the AOA/ACGME merger was to squeeze out the IMGs, particularly the Carib diploma mill grads who went there to skirt the rigor of the med schools screening process.

So yes, in time the IMGs will be squeezed out. That bus is coming.

What we will probably also see is that DOs will match predominantly into Primary Care, and MD grads into specialties. It's an evolutionary process. remember, at one time, surgeons were to be considered physicians. Don't believe me? Look at the official name of Columbia's med school.

Didn't mean to turn this into a merger thread--I was referring to expansion. But I suppose expansion and the merger will have a cumulative effect. Yes--I guess we will have to see. Mostly primary care makes sense. And thats interesting "College of Physicians and Surgeons". haha

 

[the argus]

It was more like 2/3 last I heard. And that included IM. And your own numbers show that losing the DO-only spots would make a large impact on top DO students trying to match into those specialties.

The post I originally responded to was saying 70-80% in the future. I was just pointing out that we are basically already there, with you yourself saying 67%. I would count ~70% as the vast majority, but maybe you would be happier if I said strong majority instead?

And he was also saying it was going to be very hard, in the future, for DOs in those specialties. I was just pointing out it's already very hard. The number of DOs going into those specialties is <5% of DO students, and if you get rid of ortho, it's like <3%. I would rate that as already very hard.

The major purpose of the AOA/ACGME merger was to squeeze out the IMGs, particularly the Carib diploma mill grads who went there to skirt the rigor of the med schools screening process.

So yes, in time the IMGs will be squeezed out. That bus is coming.

What we will probably also see is that DOs will match predominantly into Primary Care, and MD grads into specialties. It's an evolutionary process. remember, at one time, surgeons were to be considered physicians. Don't believe me? Look at the official name of Columbia's med school.

My favorite Goro claim. Still has never explained why the residency merger would squeeze out IMGs... great sound bite though!

 

[Goro]

I beleive in England, surgeons are still referred to as "Mr or "Ms", not "Dr".

Didn't mean to turn this into a merger thread--I was referring to expansion. But I suppose expansion and the merger will have a cumulative effect. Yes--I guess we will have to see. Mostly primary care makes sense. And thats interesting "College of Physicians and Surgeons". haha

 

[TheaterOfTheme]

My favorite Goro claim. Still has never explained why the residency merger would squeeze out IMGs... great sound bite though!

I would also like the reasoning


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[Prehealth1011]

The major purpose of the AOA/ACGME merger was to squeeze out the IMGs, particularly the Carib diploma mill grads who went there to skirt the rigor of the med schools screening process.

So yes, in time the IMGs will be squeezed out. That bus is coming.

What we will probably also see is that DOs will match predominantly into Primary Care, and MD grads into specialties. It's an evolutionary process. remember, at one time, surgeons were to be considered physicians. Don't believe me? Look at the official name of Columbia's med school.

Can you, yourself, explain this with statistics/numbers?
Rather than waiting for someone to post on your behalf and putting a "like" to the posts like you usually do?
It's hard to take someone seriously who copies and pastes the same message everywhere and never replies once quoted about this topic.

 

[Goro]

I'm not making the news, just reporting it, as conveyed to me from people with contacts high up in both AOA and ACGME...y'know, Clinical Deans and Dep't Chairs?

Can you, yourself, explain this with statistics/numbers?
Rather than waiting for someone to post on your behalf and putting a "like" to the posts like you usually do?
It's hard to take someone seriously who copies and pastes the same message everywhere and never replies once quoted about this topic.

 

[the argus]

I'm not making the news, just reporting it, as conveyed to me from people with contacts high up in both AOA and ACGME...y'know, Clinical Deans and Dep't Chairs?

so basically, you got nothing.

 

[235009]

The major purpose of the AOA/ACGME merger was to squeeze out the IMGs, particularly the Carib diploma mill grads who went there to skirt the rigor of the med schools screening process.

The ACGME forced the AOA to hand over residency accreditation under the threat that they would no longer allow poorly trained AOA residency grads into their fellowships. There's nothing in there about IMGs. In fact IMGs stand to profit from this by making more residencies available for them to apply to. The only ones skirting a rigorous process were those students who went to DO schools and got shuffled into DO residencies without having to take any of the USMLE exams or be subjected to the same standard as everyone else.


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[asdf123g]

what graduating year of DO's will be the first to be affected by this merger?

 

[IslandStyle808]

what graduating year of DO's will be the first to be affected by this merger?

The most recent year should be 2017, not sure by how much though.

 

[ERDOC555]

Extremely competitive specialties are already, and always have been, very hard for DOs. The amount of DOs matching in these specialties through the allo route is negligible (i.e. 3 in ortho last year, 2 in ENT, 5 derm, 1 rad onc, 0 neurosurg). And the number of positions in these fields through the AOA match is exceedingly small (13 neurosurg, 121 ortho, 19 ENT, urology 22, derm 56, ophtho 16) compared to the number of DO grads each year (>5000).

The vast majority of DO grads already go into primary care specialties.

Wow! This is great information. I had no idea how many spots there were for the competitive specialties. 121 Ortho and 56 Derm are not small numbers.

What percentage of these residencies do you all think will survive the merger? Adding all 56 Derm spots to the current 400 would be quite significant!

 

[asdf123g]

Is it predicted that it will be better or worse for DO's in terms of matching into competitive specialties? (an opinion, I know) im confused, it sounds like some of you are saying it will get harder and most will be forced into Primary care while others say it will become next to impossible to land an ultra competitive specialty but easier to land a mid-competitive specialty?

 

[IslandStyle808]

Wow! This is great information. I had no idea how many spots there were for the competitive specialties. 121 Ortho and 56 Derm are not small numbers.

What percentage of these residencies do you all think will survive the merger? Adding all 56 Derm spots to the current 400 would be quite significant!

I believe a lot of derm residencies won't survive this merger. As stated by residents, some of them are done in such lowly conditions such as doctors offices or clinics. So I don't think they will meet the bare minimums required of most derm ACGME residencies. However, you can check the ACGME ADS system to see which residencies have been approved so far.

https://apps.acgme.org/ads/Public/R...reditation=true&IncludePreAccreditation=false

The link shows that 1 derm residency has been approved so far, and a few others are on a pre-accredidation pathway.

 

[67552931811]

Is it predicted that it will be better or worse for DO's in terms of matching into competitive specialties? (an opinion, I know) im confused, it sounds like some of you are saying it will get harder and most will be forced into Primary care while others say it will become next to impossible to land an ultra competitive specialty but easier to land a mid-competitive specialty?

If you look over the history of medicine, taking heed in prognostications is a fool's errand.

 

[ERDOC555]

I believe a lot of derm residencies won't survive this merger. As stated by residents, some of them are done in such lowly conditions such as doctors offices or clinics. So I don't think they will meet the bare minimums required of most derm ACGME residencies. However, you can check the ACGME ADS system to see which residencies have been approved so far.

https://apps.acgme.org/ads/Public/R...reditation=true&IncludePreAccreditation=false

The link shows that 1 derm residency has been approved so far, and a few others are on a pre-accredidation pathway.

Thanks so much for the info. It will be interesting to see how many are approved come 2020.

I have to say, I got quite the interesting year to get accepted into med school with so many changes happening! Can't wait to see how things look in a few short years!

 

[IslandStyle808]

Is it predicted that it will be better or worse for DO's in terms of matching into competitive specialties? (an opinion, I know) im confused, it sounds like some of you are saying it will get harder and most will be forced into Primary care while others say it will become next to impossible to land an ultra competitive specialty but easier to land a mid-competitive specialty?

It is tough to say at this point, since there are so many factors to consider. DO candidates are not as competitive as MD candidates in general. So this may hurt a lesser DO candidate when applying to a previously AOA residency. However, most MD students don't realize that for AOA residencies most like candidates who rotate with them. So with DOs having this inside knowledge can have the inside track when matching into such competitive residencies.

Also, there were those DO applicants who may have been competitive in the past for an ACGME residency, but were pulled out of the AMCGE match due to the AOA match. Now with the residencies using the NRMP system, this will mean those who stood a chance at an ACGME residency won't be pulled out of the NRMP match for an AOA residency. So it could potentially benefit those who are very competitive.

In the end, it will be all a matter of seeing how this plays out.

 

[hallowmann]

OP, what you aren't seeing are the schools that already have students in the pipeline. Your estimate of 10 schools opening has already been surpassed by the number of schools that have opened in the past 4 yrs. In my year alone, there were 3 brand new DO schools as well as 1-2 MD schools. By 2020 there will be about 3000 more grads to begin with, and given the way things are going, that will continue to 3000 more in 4 more years. The point is that at this rate, in about a decade, the number of residency spots will only be marginally greater than the number of US graduates.

That all said, spots expand by ~1%/yr anyway, so it will still delay the inevitable in time for school expansion to reduce, but still its very different from the times when 1/2 to 1/3 of residency spots were filled with international grads. There will still be an excess of residency spots, but the idea is that the excess is dropping, and we really don't know what long term effects that's going to have on graduates.

Is it predicted that it will be better or worse for DO's in terms of matching into competitive specialties? (an opinion, I know) im confused, it sounds like some of you are saying it will get harder and most will be forced into Primary care while others say it will become next to impossible to land an ultra competitive specialty but easier to land a mid-competitive specialty?

The reason you're seeing completely opposite predictions is that no one knows for sure. This is purely speculation by any one on here (those saying everything will be fine and those saying that DOs will be "stuck" doing only FM). No one knows for sure how the previously DO residencies will act (and the truth is it'l probably vary from program to program), no one knows what DO match stats will look like once all DOs are participating in the NRMP match. The bottom line is that its unprecedented, and as such unpredictable.

As for the 20% that don't match, some small number will SOAP, others will scramble into open AOA spots, either TRIs or categorical. Only a small percentage will have nothing and wait for next year. One of the concerns with the merger and school expansion is that this safety net of available positions that are available to DOs that fail to match will shrink, which has even happened to some small degree over the last few years with school expansion. That said, if DO schools continue to expand GME in order to at least accommodate the percentage of their grads that will scramble, I doubt this will be an issue. Again, we'll have to wait and see to be sure.

 

[22031 Alum]

However, most MD students don't realize that for AOA residencies most like candidates who rotate with them. So with DOs having this inside knowledge can have the inside track when matching into such competitive residencies.

This is a good point. However, one thing I've noticed during my time in academics is how robust the "get our students matched" mechanism is at MD compared to DO schools. For example, it doesn't take much effort to find posts by DO students who are getting precious little guidance from the clinical departments at their school- some who have no clinical department to turn to at all. I'd be willing to bet that the "inside knowledge" advantage won't last very long at all, and the competition for audition rotations will soar accordingly.

 

[TheaterOfTheme]

OP, what you aren't seeing are the schools that already have students in the pipeline. Your estimate of 10 schools opening has already been surpassed by the number of schools that have opened in the past 4 yrs. In my year alone, there were 3 brand new DO schools as well as 1-2 MD schools. By 2020 there will be about 3000 more grads to begin with, and given the way things are going, that will continue to 3000 more in 4 more years. The point is that at this rate, in about a decade, the number of residency spots will only be marginally greater than the number of US graduates.

I see what you mean--the overall cumulative effect of schools opening. I didn't think about this. Man...I really hope that residency expansion keeps up. Everyone knows we need more physicians but obviously residencies are the rate limiting step.

 

[NurWollen]

OP, what you aren't seeing are the schools that already have students in the pipeline. Your estimate of 10 schools opening has already been surpassed by the number of schools that have opened in the past 4 yrs. In my year alone, there were 3 brand new DO schools as well as 1-2 MD schools. By 2020 there will be about 3000 more grads to begin with, and given the way things are going, that will continue to 3000 more in 4 more years. The point is that at this rate, in about a decade, the number of residency spots will only be marginally greater than the number of US graduates.

That all said, spots expand by ~1%/yr anyway, so it will still delay the inevitable in time for school expansion to reduce, but still its very different from the times when 1/2 to 1/3 of residency spots were filled with international grads. There will still be an excess of residency spots, but the idea is that the excess is dropping, and we really don't know what long term effects that's going to have on graduates.



The reason you're seeing completely opposite predictions is that no one knows for sure. This is purely speculation by any one on here (those saying everything will be fine and those saying that DOs will be "stuck" doing only FM). No one knows for sure how the previously DO residencies will act (and the truth is it'l probably vary from program to program), no one knows what DO match stats will look like once all DOs are participating in the NRMP match. The bottom line is that its unprecedented, and as such unpredictable.

As for the 20% that don't match, some small number will SOAP, others will scramble into open AOA spots, either TRIs or categorical. Only a small percentage will have nothing and wait for next year. One of the concerns with the merger and school expansion is that this safety net of available positions that are available to DOs that fail to match will shrink, which has even happened to some small degree over the last few years with school expansion. That said, if DO schools continue to expand GME in order to at least accommodate the percentage of their grads that will scramble, I doubt this will be an issue. Again, we'll have to wait and see to be sure.

I'm both interested and scared to see how our match year plays out with those new schools. That's a not insignificant number applicants burdening the system. But you are right, AOA GME has expanded quite a bit so hopefully that will help.

 

[67552931811]

I see what you mean--the overall cumulative effect of schools opening. I didn't think about this. Man...I really hope that residency expansion keeps up. Everyone knows we need more physicians but obviously residencies are the rate limiting step.

No, we do not.

 

[the argus]

OP, what you aren't seeing are the schools that already have students in the pipeline. Your estimate of 10 schools opening has already been surpassed by the number of schools that have opened in the past 4 yrs. In my year alone, there were 3 brand new DO schools as well as 1-2 MD schools. By 2020 there will be about 3000 more grads to begin with, and given the way things are going, that will continue to 3000 more in 4 more years. The point is that at this rate, in about a decade, the number of residency spots will only be marginally greater than the number of US graduates.

Not sure where you are getting these numbers, but I'm pretty sure you are just making them up. Nowhere, other than your post, are those numbers being proposed. You are way overshooting the actual estimates of AMG expansion.

You should read this NEJM piece from 12/2015. The authors actually looked at the numbers and the proposed new schools. They came up with still ~4500 more residency positions than USMD/DO grads in 2023-2024. Currently the number is 6500-7000 more residency positions than USMD/DO grads.
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1511707?query=TOC&&

 

[asdf123g]

Is it reasonable to assume job security and pay going to drop significantly with the influx of so many new US grats? (supply and demand) Or will it remain close to the same now? (since it sounds like IMG's will just not get a US residency instead)

 

[GUH]

Is it reasonable to assume job security and pay going to drop significantly with the influx of so many new US grats? (supply and demand) Or will it remain close to the same now? (since it sounds like IMG's will just not get a US residency instead)

Job security will be fine. Pay is hard to predict since it's largely controlled by the government and insurance companies.

 

[DetectiveAlonzo]

IMGs will still get all of the IM, FM, or Psych positions that nobody else wants (whether it be due to location, training, or program's refusal to take in IMGs).

That's what has been happening. That's what will continue to happen.

It won't really push them out, but they will just have more programs to apply to now.

Instead of applying to 50-100 programs like the usual IMG applicant does (keep in mind that a US grad applies to MUCH less) ... they will essentially be applying to 150 now. Whoopty dooooo. They MAY have a greater chance of snagging a residency.... because they are applying pretty much everywhere.

IM, FM, and Psych have not been terribly hard for bottom of the barrel DOs to match into. They will fare better by taking the USMLE and doing more away rotations at the programs they are interested in. But they won't be throwing up hail mary passes to snag a match everytime like the usual IMG folk have to.

 

[hallowmann]

I'm both interested and scared to see how our match year plays out with those new schools. That's a not insignificant number applicants burdening the system. But you are right, AOA GME has expanded quite a bit so hopefully that will help.

Yeah, combination of curious, nervous, and a bit excited, pretty much exactly what I'm feeling.

Not sure where you are getting these numbers, but I'm pretty sure you are just making them up. Nowhere, other than your post, are those numbers being proposed. You are way overshooting the actual estimates of AMG expansion.

You should read this NEJM piece from 12/2015. The authors actually looked at the numbers and the proposed new schools. They came up with still ~4500 more residency positions than USMD/DO grads in 2023-2024. Currently the number is 6500-7000 more residency positions than USMD/DO grads.
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1511707?query=TOC&&

Between 2011 DO matriculation and 2015 DO matriculation there was an increase of ~1300 students. [1][2] Between 2011 and 2015 on the US MD side there was an increase of ~1400 students. [3] My numbers of ~3000 extra students in the pipeline is a bit of an overestimation, as the real number is around 2700 given matriculant stats from AACOM and AAMC, but I wouldn't call it "way overshooting... AMG expansion" estimates.

Expansion of schools and class sizes has persisted, if not increased, and assuming the same trend, we can expect a student increase of ~3000 every 4 years. Previous studies done now do not take into account new schools that have not even yet been proposed, therefore they can only look at a projection several (4-6) yrs out, as opposed to 10+ yrs out. Now obviously my numbers are not prophetic, but given the assumptions I stated (expansion continues, residencies stay at the rate they've been), we will see that surplus number shrink into the low thousands (1000-3000 maybe) over the next 10-14 yrs.

As far as your study goes, I actually think it underestimates the effect (combination of increasing estimation of GME expansion than I had seen, but I'll take their word for it - not sure this will persist though through the merger period, but we'll have to wait and see - and decreasing AMG expansion estimates, which may happen, but we'll see), and in the end their outlook is slightly better than mine with a reduction of only 35% of the extra spots, compared to my 71%. Now if we extend that out to 15-16 years from now as opposed to 7-8 yrs, it will be pretty close to my (guess)timate.

[1] 2011 DO Matriculant profile http://www.aacom.org/docs/default-source/data-and-trends/2011-aacomasmprofsummrpt.pdf?sfvrsn=8

[2] 2015 DO Matriculants by State http://www.aacom.org/docs/default-source/data-and-trends/2015_MatCOMState.pdf?sfvrsn=14

[3] 2006-2015 MD Matriculant profile https://www.aamc.org/download/321462/data/factstablea4.pdf

 

[235009]

However, most MD students don't realize that for AOA residencies most like candidates who rotate with them. So with DOs having this inside knowledge can have the inside track when matching into such competitive residencies.

The need for audition rotations is a symptom of the larger problem among DO schools regarding poor/variable clinical rotations. These residencies want to know who whether their future residents had an appropriate amount of training and a head start training them. When there are known commodities from US MD schools applying to these residencies I doubt these residencies will pass on these students. The fact that very few of the residencies that applied for ACGME accreditation have applied for osteopathic recognition is a good indication that they won't preferentially take DOs or give them a leg up just for the sake of osteopathy.