Poll: How will coronavirus affect the pathology job market?

[deleted915203]

Could coronavirus cause elderly pathologists to retire now? Or, lead to hospitals not hiring as many new pathologists?

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[coroner]

Could coronavirus cause elderly pathologists to retire now?

No. Especially given the market is tanking. Even if they contract the virus, it will give them more reason to cling on to their microscopes until their last dying breath to generate one more CPT code...

 

[Spikebd]

Definitely less jobs.
The older pathologists who survive COVID-19 will be pushing their retirements way back after this stock crash.

 

[deleted941485]

Definitely less jobs.
The older pathologists who survive COVID-19 will be pushing their retirements way back after this stock crash.

agreed. Things will get worse

 

[WEBB PINKERTON]

Less elective procedures=less specimens.

 

[Med Director New England]

We are seeing a drop in bread and butter type of AP specimen. I guess folks little skin mole, or scheduling their colonoscopy have taken a backseat. Outpatient CP work similarly down.

the RVP has come roaring back. Interesting that this test which was demonized by payers due to high cost and some cases of over use now is back in high use.

 

[univlad]

Agreed. Fewer jobs.
Around 2007-2008 pathologists were delaying retirement after the stock market drop.

 

[deleted915203]

@jmarkant #jmarkant

Can you share your thoughts as to why you think there will be more pathology job openings? I am curious.

 

[ClinPathDO]

@jmarkant #jmarkant

Can you share your thoughts as to why you think there will be more pathology job openings? I am curious.

I think it could lead to more medical microbiology and molecular pathology-infectious disease related jobs in the long run.

 

[LADoc00]

Depends. 2 scenarios.

One is where older pathologists actually all die. Im talking an entire cohort between 60 and 80 just kick off. This would create a substantial demand and actually break up some large groups.

We need to see the data for healthcare workers who have died in China AND now Italy. From my sources over 1000 healthcare workers died in China. We need to see the CFR for Pathologists in Italy. That will be key.

The other scenario is we will experience the singular greatest downdraft in surgical path volume EVER. They will end endoscopy, prostate biopsies, etc for several months in order to re-focus. Larger groups could even go negative on income, perhaps completely fold up. Here, it will be the worst job market of all time for pathology. Groups wont hire, individuals will open their 401K to find HALF their savings gone and tons of survivors in their 60s will postpone retirement for another 5-10 years as a result....

we will see. But I am very glad Im not looking for a job this year.

 

[WEBB PINKERTON]

We are going to lose many elective procedures. It is happening now. Be prepared for a slow few months.

 

[Guest8]

We are going to lose many elective procedures. It is happening now. Be prepared for a slow few months.

Yep. Our outpatient surgical center is closed this whole week and the hospital system is recommending cancelling all elective procedures until further notice. That's gonna hurt.

 

[KeratinPearls]

The job market was hard enough. It will be terrible in the next year. Knew of some pathologists who were going to retire in the next 1-2 years. Not happening now.

 

[deleted915203]

I think CAP will finally admit that the pathology job market is bad.

They will say that the pathology job market when from great to bad in the year 2020, due to coronavirus.

It is the perfect way out for them.

 

[Med Director New England]

Time to be nimble put on your CP hat if you aren’t already heavily involved in this. AP volume will be low, hospitals and systems will need help with logistics of Covid testing.

PCPs who haven’t set foot in a hospital in years are also losing their shirts - no one is coming to the doctor for routine stuff. If you are asked to help set up or direct an outside collection center for OP and NP swabs you should jump at the opportunity.

 

[WEBB PINKERTON]

Maybe Andrew Yang was right about universal basic income. I don't see how this country can avoid doing something drastic like that to get through this.

 

[Guest8]

Maybe Andrew Yang was right about universal basic income. I don't see how this country can avoid doing something drastic like that to get through this.

About the only thing that will help. Cutting interest rates won't do squat. Payroll tax cut won't do squat. But if you put money in the hands of people - especially poor people - they'll turn around and throw all of it right back into the economy to buy things they need, immediately boosting spending. Austerity makes recessions into depressions (ask Greece). Spending digs economies out of recessions.

 

[WEBB PINKERTON]

This country relies on waste and consuming. We are in deep trouble without some drastic measures.

It is a blood bath here at the moment. Lot of people being laid off or hours reduced and we haven't seen the worse yet. This is going to be bad for months. I have no doubt I will be laying off people at my businesses.

It is nice living rural with lots of farm animals and land.

A country boy can survive.

 

[LADoc00]

Okay it looks like my scenario #2 is happening this morning...God help us. I cant imagine how many OP based groups will collapse in the next year...TOTAL PARADIGM SHIFT?

 

[KeratinPearls]

Some people lining up to buy guns if you believe it.

 

[WEBB PINKERTON]

Governor of Indiana has ordered all hospitals surgery centers to stop elective surgeries.

 

[WEBB PINKERTON]

I already have lot of guns. Opponents of the second amendment will changing their tunes after this over.

 

[hesperion]

On a side note, I noticed on Friday, the CAP urged DHS to waive regulatory requirements including inspections. As of this morning, the website says they have postponed all international inspections but inspections in the US are on as scheduled. Does anyone else think this is ridiculous? Hopefully things are updated in the next few days and inspections are postponed here until May 1st, like the rest of the world.

 

[Alteran]

Okay it looks like my scenario #2 is happening this morning...God help us. I cant imagine how many OP based groups will collapse in the next year...TOTAL PARADIGM SHIFT?

We just got the letter from our hospital system CEO saying all non-emergency/elective procedures are on hold for at least a month. Malignant or rule-out malignant cases, which are a substantial bulk of our volume, should not be affected. Still, we're looking at 30-40% volume drop. We're definitely overstaffed for the drop we're anticipating. While we're not planning on letting anyone go because we know this is only a temporary thing, the drop in revenue will be severe and there are ZERO plans to hire for at least another year.

 

[deleted314957]

I think it could lead to more medical microbiology and molecular pathology-infectious disease related jobs in the long run.

I doubt it. This is routine viral testing. Tech level intensity.


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[deleted915203]

I already have lot of guns. Opponents of the second amendment will changing their tunes after this over.

If the pro-gun argument was explained for this very reason (an apocalypse), I would have been more understanding.

 

[deleted915203]

I predict a spike in the number of forensic fellows... Because forensics will be the only path field with job openings in the near term.

 

[deleted314957]

I predict a spike in the number of forensic fellows... Because forensics will be the only path field with job openings in the near term.

FP has always been an excellent “ fall back” option if you can deal with it.


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[KeratinPearls]

I predict a spike in the number of forensic fellows... Because forensics will be the only path field with job openings in the near term.

I don’t think so. Either ppl will still go into path despite our warnings or just avoid it completely. Most people you couldn’t pay $2 million to do that work.

 

[deleted915203]

Maybe Andrew Yang was right about universal basic income. I don't see how this country can avoid doing something drastic like that to get through this.

Romney proposes giving $1,000 to every American adult as coronavirus response measure

Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah on Monday outlined a list of proposals to address the coronavirus outbreak, including giving all American adults $1,000 in response to fallout from the spread of the disease.

www.cnn.com

Romney supporting a one time dividend of $1000 to adults?

 

[ClinPathDO]

I doubt it. This is routine viral testing. Tech level intensity.


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This pandemic shows the need for medical microbiologists and molecular pathologists who can develop and implement a LDT in the event of an outbreak. We still haven’t gotten past that stage currently, most of the country is still trying to get COVID-19 testing validated.

 

[LADoc00]

I am very concerned for what is going to come next in terms of mass social disorder. I have already given up on pathology and have my kids stuffing mags now to go full warfighter beast mode.

 

[path24]

I figure this crisis will be used to increase residency spots. "Leaders" will exploit it.

 

[KeratinPearls]

Received an email today one of the groups I applied to will be delaying their hiring process until Fall.

 

[Spikebd]

If you do big cancer resections I would think those cases still have to proceed, even in the COVID era. Outpatient biopsies will probably slow down some.
Idk, I feel most of our services are pretty essential and not really things that can be put off too long.

Elective Ortho procedures, cosmetic procedures... those things will get wrecked worst by COVID-19.

It’ll probably push back AI research and encroachment on our specialty back too.

CP focused jobs are still necessary...

One thing that could reduce volume is if there is a Thanos like situation where half of our super consumers of health care pass away.

Aside from that and the acute uncertainty with this situation i think path will come out of this OK on the other end.

 

[Spikebd]

Of all the reasons to chose Rads over Path, and there is alot..AI isnt one of them folks.

AI in radiology is an entire generation ahead of where it is in Pathology. To translate, AI radiology will appear decades before AI pathologists. Both will involve replacement of M.D.s eventually from these fields but the time frame could be even a century from now, who knows. Eventually our sun will die as well you realize.

I think pathologists maybe one of the last humans on the medical staff to be honest, we are few in number meaning AI replacements wont be cost efficient for a long time. You will have AI replacements of specialty surgery, radiology, emergency medicine/trauma and the like before path only because we are so niche its not really worth the Ominassiah/Machine God's time to eliminate us. Heck the Machine God may even keep us around as a servitor-type human to tend to all the AI robotic radiologists! there is hope!

I was reminded of this post by LADoc00 after thinking about it some more. Maybe COVID-19 is the Machine God's first move...

 

[WEBB PINKERTON]

Once the smoke clears, there is going to be a significant number of people out of work and with no insurance. It's going to be bad for quite some time.

 

[LADoc00]

Already got a call a mere 5 days into this a small OP path lab has collapsed and the larger lab that was considering buying them closed up shop the day before.

I think pretty much most of the large employee model groups with a large OP biz line like Affiliate Pathology, DMPG etc will be out of business if this goes the projected distance.

Will be interesting to see what happens at the other end of the Valley of Shadows, who is standing still and all.

 

[AZpath]

These are going to hard times for a while

 

[HeyDalaron]

How will China be held accountable?

 

[WEBB PINKERTON]

Holding China "accountable" could prolong this as well. Will there be a trade war etc? Hopefully cool heads will prevail.

Pathology groups better be prepared to adapt to the new reality that is here. To quote the architect of the matrix "there are levels of survival that the machines are willing to accept".

 

[gbwillner]

How will China be held accountable?

Accountable for what? The Democrat Hoax?

 

[Alteran]

Already got a call a mere 5 days into this a small OP path lab has collapsed and the larger lab that was considering buying them closed up shop the day before.

I think pretty much most of the large employee model groups with a large OP biz line like Affiliate Pathology, DMPG etc will be out of business if this goes the projected distance.

Will be interesting to see what happens at the other end of the Valley of Shadows, who is standing still and all.

Maybe I’m missing something here, but how does any AP lab who takes insurance and is looking forward to another 60-90 days of incoming insurance payments go under with just a 5 day pause in work? I get the part about a revenue stream drop and not hiring for the remainder of the year. But for this to be true, they would have to have such a low volume operating on very very narrow margins. Are there really that many labs like that out there?

 

[LADoc00]

Maybe I’m missing something here, but how does any AP lab who takes insurance and is looking forward to another 60-90 days of incoming insurance payments go under with just a 5 day pause in work? I get the part about a revenue stream drop and not hiring for the remainder of the year. But for this to be true, they would have to have such a low volume operating on very very narrow margins. Are there really that many labs like that out there?

First off this, this is in California which has both no elective surgery AND shelter in place, which has confused alot of people to degree people call me to ask whether they can go to a follow up appt with their urologist..

All of medicine typically runs on very low margins and many pathology groups operate, unwisely IMO, with HUGE employee costs/operating costs. This shutdown therefore is not a problem with small, thin volume groups as much as its a deathblow for big, multi-hospital, multi-pathologist ones.

Yes everyone in medicine has significant funds in AR, BUT if you burn those funds paying salary and hourly with no incoming work then you risk an inability to stay solvent 45 days from now even if work resumes. The groups I know that already shuttered, one was on the verge of the owner retiring and the other was one that needed additional volume to make their OP lab work. Both looked at the current situation and said "Let's call this, preserve cash and AR, and sit at home passively collecting any Medical Directorship we can for now"...they let all the employees go immediately, which IMO was THE smartest thing to do, especially if they planned to ever re-open.

The problem will be in larger mixed-type groups, groups where 5-6 folks are partners and they have 15 or so employed pathologists, 5 HTs, a marketing person, a CEO, COO, 3 couriers, an OP lab fixed overhead and 5-6 path assistants. Maybe an overhead of 600K a month or more. Yes you have AR to keep juggling the balls in the short term but whenever this ends you maybe looking at a cash flow gap of 750K...maybe a million dollars or much more for OVERHEAD and PAYROLL.

~If you lay off all the non-Pathologists you cant do anything anywhere so you keep some of the HTs as a firewall.

~You fire all the couriers, path assistants, but how do you fire all the executives you unwisely burdened your practice down with? They will want to "ride it out" with you knowing given current events they dont have ANY soft landing anywhere in the new economy that will come after this. They will resist being laid off using any tool in their toolbox.

~Then what do you do with all the employed pathologists?? If you fire or lay off some, then partners will need to scramble to move between hospitals because those hospitals are about to demand MORE for their medical directorship fees, not less. Some small little country hospital who might have produced 10 blocks a day in surgical specimens may now want a boarded pathologist onsite 12 hrs day while their ICUs and ward beds are slammed with sick patients.

Maybe at the end of this the partners of many larger groups actually make no income for the year or at least have their shareholder distribution portion slashed to zero. I think that will be a final straw for lot and lots of folks who had retirement on the near term.

Of course the counterbalance to this would be the fact their 401Ks are now 40% light (and about to get even lighter) so maybe they can never retire now...dark days for sure.

 

[Spikebd]

First off this, this is in California which has both no elective surgery AND shelter in place, which has confused alot of people to degree people call me to ask whether they can go to a follow up appt with their urologist..

All of medicine typically runs on very low margins and many pathology groups operate, unwisely IMO, with HUGE employee costs/operating costs. This shutdown therefore is not a problem with small, thin volume groups as much as its a deathblow for big, multi-hospital, multi-pathologist ones.

Yes everyone in medicine has significant funds in AR, BUT if you burn those funds paying salary and hourly with no incoming work then you risk an inability to stay solvent 45 days from now even if work resumes. The groups I know that already shuttered, one was on the verge of the owner retiring and the other was one that needed additional volume to make their OP lab work. Both looked at the current situation and said "Let's call this, preserve cash and AR, and sit at home passively collecting any Medical Directorship we can for now"...they let all the employees go immediately, which IMO was THE smartest thing to do, especially if they planned to ever re-open.

The problem will be in larger mixed-type groups, groups where 5-6 folks are partners and they have 15 or so employed pathologists, 5 HTs, a marketing person, a CEO, COO, 3 couriers, an OP lab fixed overhead and 5-6 path assistants. Maybe an overhead of 600K a month or more. Yes you have AR to keep juggling the balls in the short term but whenever this ends you maybe looking at a cash flow gap of 750K...maybe a million dollars or much more for OVERHEAD and PAYROLL.

~If you lay off all the non-Pathologists you cant do anything anywhere so you keep some of the HTs as a firewall.

~You fire all the couriers, path assistants, but how do you fire all the executives you unwisely burdened your practice down with? They will want to "ride it out" with you knowing given current events they dont have ANY soft landing anywhere in the new economy that will come after this. They will resist being laid off using any tool in their toolbox.

~Then what do you do with all the employed pathologists?? If you fire or lay off some, then partners will need to scramble to move between hospitals because those hospitals are about to demand MORE for their medical directorship fees, not less. Some small little country hospital who might have produced 10 blocks a day in surgical specimens may now want a boarded pathologist onsite 12 hrs day while their ICUs and ward beds are slammed with sick patients.

Maybe at the end of this the partners of many larger groups actually make no income for the year or at least have their shareholder distribution portion slashed to zero. I think that will be a final straw for lot and lots of folks who had retirement on the near term.

Of course the counterbalance to this would be the fact their 401Ks are now 40% light (and about to get even lighter) so maybe they can never retire now...dark days for sure.

It seems private practice for all medical fields is in grave danger.
Seems like my best case scenario is to be an employed path for some large local healthcare system. I guess I’ll hope they don’t abuse me too badly?

 

[LADoc00]

It seems private practice for all medical fields is in grave danger.
Seems like my best case scenario is to be an employed path for some large local healthcare system. I guess I’ll hope they don’t abuse me too badly?

If private path groups were merely in trouble before, Jason from Friday the 13th has now arrived and is beheading groups left and right....so yes.

 

[Alteran]

That makes sense and I figured that was the case for a protracted national lockdown. I was just wondering about those who already shuttered. That being said, I can’t imagine this going on for much longer honestly. From what I read, at about $500 billion lost/week in a $12 trillion economy, we’re not going to last much longer.

 

[LADoc00]

That makes sense and I figured that was the case for a protracted national lockdown. I was just wondering about those who already shuttered. That being said, I can’t imagine this going on for much longer honestly. From what I read, at about $500 billion lost/week in a $12 trillion economy, we’re not going to last much longer.

Also remember equities have lost 11.5 trillion from the peak in Mid Feb already.

As I have been saying to everyone in my area, even if the virus was gone tomorrow because even IF:
A. aliens landed and were friendly enough to give us the cure
B. the messiah comes and initiates the Rapture
The damage to the global economy is already done and so much will change, life post virus will be totally different.

My brother called me from a sat phone in an undisclosed part of the Mediterranean from the Navy fleet last week.

They went to sea before this kicked off and are gone for 9 months. They are disallowed from ANY port in that 9 months. 9 months on a ship at sea to return to a world totally different than the one they left. I told him to mentally prepare for what things will be like, the psychological readjustment will be intense. All this and he had 3-week old baby at home alone with the mom when he left...This would be like going on to tour to Afghanistan only to find on your return to the U.S., you now live in Afghanistan.

 

[D1b()4]

is would be like going on to tour to Afghanistan only to find on your return to the U.S., you now live in Afghanistan.

Don't exaggerate; it won't be that bad.

 

[Med Director New England]

Pathology groups, all types, small - large, academics - private - corporate, are in for a serious day of reckoning soon.

we all seen the various MD groups on Facebook what is happening to other specialists. Employed MDs in many areas are being furloughed leftand right. Imagine what will happened to an employed AP pathologist within a system that has stopped paying its employed PCPs b/c they are no longer seeing outpatients? An AP only pathologist or an AP/CP who only practices AP will be screwed soon. About 1 in 5 will be needed as basically all the usual sources of AP business are shuttered.

around me dept chairs in fields like surgery or anesthesia have told their staff -prepare to do some inpatient medicine if you want to conintue getting paid. Problem for pathologists is that most will have no role at all for a couple of months.