Stock, the economy and the Fed for 2023

[BLADEMDA]

Let’s start off with a prediction that gold catches a bid finally towards $2,000. This is just catch up for the inflation in 2022. It’s a slog in terms of stocks for the first half until the Fed drives inflation under 4%. That could happen this year. I predict a big rally at some point in 2023 of 10 percent or more. I’m a buyer of chip stocks this winter and expect an uptick in this sector for 2024.

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[Deanmonster]

I'm going with China continuing to reopen, millions die, but the increased manufacturing helps to ease inflation to 5%. Treasuries rise with 10y bond about 4.3% at the peak. Commodities outperform slightly, but gold drops to $1500. SP500 up 5-10% at year end with growth outperforming value. We have a mild recession, as predicted. Ukraine takes back part of the Donbas and Russia responds with a tactical nuke. Not sure what happens after that....

 

[BLADEMDA]

Tactical nuke? Not sure any stocks Rise in the scenario.

 

[wendalltwolf]

Vault-Tec might do ok

 

[thinkorswim]

This year will be bad.

China reopening and living with Covid means more supply chain constraints, leading to worsening inflation in the US. The Fed will continue to raise and keep rates high for longer since inflation won’t abate and the job market will remain resilient. Any escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and it will be game over here with a full blown recession. Oh yeah, and China has taken notes and will invade Taiwan. Earnings will disappoint and stocks will fall.

You all can have your bonds, I will be loading the boat with TQQQ/SOXL for a 3-5 year horizon.

And finally, TSLA will trade down below $50, an appropriate valuation for a lousy car company.

 

[DannyCo]

View attachment 364271


Vault-Tec might do ok

thinkorswim said:

This year will be bad.

China reopening and living with Covid means more supply chain constraints, leading to worsening inflation in the US. The Fed will continue to raise and keep rates high for longer since inflation won’t abate and the job market will remain resilient(you can already see inflation trends on most everyday goods like fuel, ammo and other stuff. Some folks I know that do guns for sale nearby told me prices going to keep rising). Any escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and it will be game over here with a full blown recession. Oh yeah, and China has taken notes and will invade Taiwan. Earnings will disappoint and stocks will fall.

You all can have your bonds, I will be loading the boat with TQQQ/SOXL for a 3-5 year horizon.

And finally, TSLA will trade down below $50, an appropriate valuation for a lousy car company.

Time to invest in bottle caps

 

[dannyboy1]

This year will be bad.

China reopening and living with Covid means more supply chain constraints, leading to worsening inflation in the US. The Fed will continue to raise and keep rates high for longer since inflation won’t abate and the job market will remain resilient. Any escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and it will be game over here with a full blown recession. Oh yeah, and China has taken notes and will invade Taiwan. Earnings will disappoint and stocks will fall.

You all can have your bonds, I will be loading the boat with TQQQ/SOXL for a 3-5 year horizon.

And finally, TSLA will trade down below $50, an appropriate valuation for a lousy car company.

If anything, given how things are going in Ukraine I thing china would not invade…

 

[thinkorswim]

If anything, given how things are going in Ukraine I thing china would not invade…

Why not?

China has now seen the tepid Western response to an invasion. They have a much more capable military than Russia and it would be an entirely different tactical approach since Taiwan is a small island.

Xi has consolidated power and is now openly talking about Taiwan belonging to China. An invasion may not happen this year, but I think it’s inevitable.

 

[coffeebythelake]

Why not?

China has now seen the tepid Western response to an invasion. They have a much more capable military than Russia and it would be an entirely different tactical approach since Taiwan is a small island.

Xi has consolidated power and is now openly talking about Taiwan belonging to China. An invasion may not happen this year, but I think it’s inevitable.

China's strategy of infleunce has been by investment and lending. To build infrastructure projects. We see this in SE Asia and Africa for instance. It creates jobs, it builds wealth, and no triggers need to be pulled.

The last 100 years has shown that China has rarely been an aggressor. Not in WW2. Not in Korean War. Not in Vietnam War.

China has always said Taiwan belongs to them. Unless something changes drastically in political landscape on the Taiwan side an invasion isn't going to happen. Plenty of families across the strait.

 

[sevoflurane]

View attachment 364271


Vault-Tec might do ok

that’s hilarious dude 😂😂
love me some fallout 😵

 

[coffeebythelake]

This year will be bad.

China reopening and living with Covid means more supply chain constraints, leading to worsening inflation in the US. The Fed will continue to raise and keep rates high for longer since inflation won’t abate and the job market will remain resilient. Any escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and it will be game over here with a full blown recession. Oh yeah, and China has taken notes and will invade Taiwan. Earnings will disappoint and stocks will fall.

You all can have your bonds, I will be loading the boat with TQQQ/SOXL for a 3-5 year horizon.

And finally, TSLA will trade down below $50, an appropriate valuation for a lousy car company.

China is going full steam ahead with reopening. I dont think they will pivot even when their numbers skyrocket. Why would China reopening lead to worsening inflation? If anythjng supply lines will ramp up. Add this to diminishing excess savings, downtrending inflation numbers and looming concerns of recession...

 

[dannyboy1]

Why not?

China has now seen the tepid Western response to an invasion. They have a much more capable military than Russia and it would be an entirely different tactical approach since Taiwan is a small island.

Xi has consolidated power and is now openly talking about Taiwan belonging to China. An invasion may not happen this year, but I think it’s inevitable.

Tepid? We have completely armed the Ukrainian military. It’s a disaster for Russia. Putin was envisioning some lightning quick victory. It’s a quagmire now and he needs an exit strategy.

 

[thinkorswim]

China's strategy of infleunce has been by investment and lending. To build infrastructure projects. We see this in SE Asia and Africa for instance. It creates jobs, it builds wealth, and no triggers need to be pulled.

The last 100 years has shown that China has rarely been an aggressor. Not in WW2. Not in Korean War. Not in Vietnam War.

China has always said Taiwan belongs to them. Unless something changes drastically in political landscape on the Taiwan side an invasion isn't going to happen. Plenty of families across the strait.

I disagree. Their investments through the Belt and Road Initiative are a separate foreign policy agenda aimed at global influence. It has nothing to do with their domestic reunification plans for Taiwan. Look no further than Hong Kong to see how far China is willing to go for reunification. It was just a more peaceful installation of a puppet government in that instance.

For Taiwan, they have been building up their military presence around the island for the past few years. In 2022 alone, China surrounded the island with their navy and conducted drills that simulate a total blockade of Taiwan. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping has consolidated his power and surrounded himself with loyalists. A number of US military and foreign policy leaders are also expressing concerns over China's increased aggression. As I said, it may not happen this year, but an annexation of Taiwan is inevitable.

China is going full steam ahead with reopening. I dont think they will pivot even when their numbers skyrocket. Why would China reopening lead to worsening inflation? If anythjng supply lines will ramp up. Add this to diminishing excess savings, downtrending inflation numbers and looming concerns of recession...

It's hard to ramp up a supply chain when the people working on it are staying at home sick. We won't know for sure how much they've been impacted for a few months.

Australia Braces for Supply Chain Hit From China Covid Surge

Australia expects a “substantial impact” on global supply chains from surging Covid cases in China and is monitoring the situation “very closely”, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[thinkorswim]

Tepid? We have completely armed the Ukrainian military. It’s a disaster for Russia. Putin was envisioning some lightning quick victory. It’s a quagmire now and he needs an exit strategy.

Yes, tepid. Xi has seen that the US has no interest in starting a war or sending in their military, instead opting for sanctions that won't hurt China nearly as much as they have Russia. With regards to military and humanitarian aid, how are you going to get it to Taiwan when they've been completely surrounded by the Chinese military?

The US needs China way more than they need Russia.

 

[coffeebythelake]

It has nothing to do with their domestic reunification plans for Taiwan. Look no further than Hong Kong to see how far China is willing to go for reunification. It was just a more peaceful installation of a puppet government in that instance.

Hong Kong is now China proper. And despite this decades after its transfer it still remains politically apart from the rest of China. The unrest and protests in Hong Kong were met by local riot police not military response from Guangzhou.

For Taiwan, they have been building up their military presence around the island for the past few years. In 2022 alone, China surrounded the island with their navy and conducted drills that simulate a total blockade of Taiwan. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping has consolidated his power and surrounded himself with loyalists. A number of US military and foreign policy leaders are also expressing concerns over China's increased aggression. As I said, it may not happen this year, but an annexation of Taiwan is inevitable.

I see China's military build up as a means of territorial defense and increase their regional sphere of military influence. Having American warships navigate the strait right up at PRCs boundaries has always been a sore point for the politburo. You call it Chinese aggression, but in China they see American aggression. Now China actually has the money and technological know how to develop their military to counter foreign powers. That's a big leap to saying an invasion is imminent especially when Taiwan has a defense pact with America

It's hard to ramp up a supply chain when the people working on it are staying at home sick. We won't know for sure how much they've been impacted for a few months.

Australia Braces for Supply Chain Hit From China Covid Surge

Australia expects a “substantial impact” on global supply chains from surging Covid cases in China and is monitoring the situation “very closely”, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said.

www.bloomberg.com

Worse than the lock downs?

 

[Mad Jack]

I'm going with China continuing to reopen, millions die, but the increased manufacturing helps to ease inflation to 5%. Treasuries rise with 10y bond about 4.3% at the peak. Commodities outperform slightly, but gold drops to $1500. SP500 up 5-10% at year end with growth outperforming value. We have a mild recession, as predicted. Ukraine takes back part of the Donbas and Russia responds with a tactical nuke. Not sure what happens after that....

If a tactical nuke is deployed it's going to be a big fat L for the economy and could possibly kick off a third, very nuclear, World War. I'm going to assume it doesn't happen, because if it does things are going to be very, very bad.

My predictions:
Gold floats between $1,900 and $2,050 throughout the year.

Ukraine war drags on throughout all of 2023 as Russia engages in a war of attrition with the goal of outlasting Ukraine's ability to keep the world's interest. There is an attempt to retake Crimea before the mud season kicks in. Russia makes another push from the North at the same time. Both sides fail and withdraw before things become a total meat grinder, and fighting refocuses on the East, which is and remains a meat grinder.

China escalates rhetoric toward Taiwan. The US continues to build chip infrastructure, which China views as a positive development internally because a US that doesn't need Taiwanese chips is less likely to risk a World War for the island. China does not realize that this will not cause the US to back off, because Taiwan isn't just about chips, so this will lead to further escalating tensions. China ultimately gets the message, but continues with the rhetoric regardless in order to give a unifying enemy to focus on at home. Xi continues to consolidate power and eliminate enemies domestically to show he is still the man in charge despite backing down from his zero COVID policies.

Europe enters a year of stagnation due to the fallout from Ukraine, but doesn't enter an all-out recession just yet. However, the US economy begins to falter as interest rates remain high and the demand for housing, new vehicles, and other large purchases is significantly reduced. Housing prices drop 10-30%, depending on the area, by the end of the year. The Fed levels off rates throughout most of the year but then makes slight cuts as late Fall and Winter come in an effort to prevent an implosion of the housing market. A recession begins. The stock market remains largely stagnant throughout this time, with no great growth or losses outside of the tech industry, which remains heavily depressed due to the multifactorial lack of available capital.

 

[Mad Jack]

Why not?

China has now seen the tepid Western response to an invasion. They have a much more capable military than Russia and it would be an entirely different tactical approach since Taiwan is a small island.

Xi has consolidated power and is now openly talking about Taiwan belonging to China. An invasion may not happen this year, but I think it’s inevitable.

China doesn't plan on Western timelines. Their approach to Taiwan is multigenerational, and they will not seek to take the island unless they are 100% confident they will be able to seize it without also destroying their nation or economy in the process. If they need to wait 50, 100, or 200 years they will. In the interim they will continue to attempt to soften the position of people in Taiwan on an eventual takeover by China. The big issue with an attempted seizure of the island is that a failure would result in the collapse of the CCP, most likely, as their entire deal is projecting competence, wisdom, and strength, all of which would be completely undermined by such a failure. They're sitting comfy in Beijing right now and allowing Taiwan to fester gives them a propaganda point by which to rouse and unite their people. The risk to benefit analysis just isn't favorable at this time.

 

[Dr. Rude]

China doesn't plan on Western timelines. Their approach to Taiwan is multigenerational, and they will not seek to take the island unless they are 100% confident they will be able to seize it without also destroying their nation or economy in the process. If they need to wait 50, 100, or 200 years they will. In the interim they will continue to attempt to soften the position of people in Taiwan on an eventual takeover by China. The big issue with an attempted seizure of the island is that a failure would result in the collapse of the CCP, most likely, as their entire deal is projecting competence, wisdom, and strength, all of which would be completely undermined by such a failure. They're sitting comfy in Beijing right now and allowing Taiwan to fester gives them a propaganda point by which to rouse and unite their people. The risk to benefit analysis just isn't favorable at this time.

Assuming Xi stays rational. Sounds like it’s his show.

 

[Mad Jack]

Assuming Xi stays rational. Sounds like it’s his show.

Xi is a fairly rational actor overall. He is all about maintaining power and stability for his wing of the CCP and he would do nothing to undermine that. Everything he has done over the past year has specifically been to further entrench that stability and I don't see him upsetting the balance any time soon.

 

[thinkorswim]

Hong Kong is now China proper. And despite this decades after its transfer it still remains politically apart from the rest of China. The unrest and protests in Hong Kong were met by local riot police not military response from Guangzhou.

Hong Kong is anything but politically independent from China these days. Their legislature is packed with pro-Beijing loyalists and the riots stemmed from laws they were trying to pass that were seen as too favorable to mainland China. The absence of the PLA on the ground in Hong Kong doesn't mean Beijing wasn't the one cracking down on the protests.

I see China's military build up as a means of territorial defense and increase their regional sphere of military influence. Having American warships navigate the strait right up at PRCs boundaries has always been a sore point for the politburo. You call it Chinese aggression, but in China they see American aggression. Now China actually has the money and technological know how to develop their military to counter foreign powers. That's a big leap to saying an invasion is imminent especially when Taiwan has a defense pact with America

I never said imminent. I said inevitable. It also doesn't have to be a traditional invasion, but Taiwan will be annexed in one way or another similar to Hong Kong. Taiwan independence and self-governance is immensely important to the US, and China understands this. The modernization of the PLA is clearly to establish regional dominance in the Asia-Pacific region and South China Sea. When you couple this with the recent rhetoric and actions of Xi to not only stay in power longer but tighten his control over the CCP, I don't see how you can argue this isn't an escalation in relations with Taiwan.

Worse than the lock downs?

I would assume so. I was under the impression supply chains were recovering despite the lockdowns in China. Now not only will more workers be out out sick, but there's a larger demand to meet from the Chinese economy at large. It's just a theory I've heard floated around and we'll have to see if holds true, but a slight notch up in inflation wouldn't surprise me.

 

[GassYous]

China is limited because of supply chain issues. They need raw materials - fuel, metals, agriculture mostly from Africa and the Middle East. They have a huge uneducated population and a lot of unrest with minority groups. Their biggest vulnerability is that ocean shipping is the cheapest way to move goods but to get ships through you have to go past India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, etc. all of who don't really like the Chinese. This fragile world order is held up by American military power so that you don't need a convoy of ships protecting all the slow, goods laded merchant vessels that traverse the globe. The biggest market is also in the United States.There is no realistic scenario in the near future in which China will be able to upset this power balance.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Assuming Xi stays rational. Sounds like it’s his show.

China will take Taiwan like they did Hong Kong...without firing a shot. I can even see a future US President "handing over" Taiwan just like the British did Hong Kong. China wants Taiwan intact as that grows the wealth of the Chinese as a whole. There is no war for Taiwan because we can't win the war and Taiwan can't defend itself. The US debt is so high and the dollar likely so weak in 10-15 years the Chinese won't even need our permission to take back THEIR Taiwan.

While I do feel sympathy towards those in Taiwan, as a staunch conservative I can't support any American losing his/her life over Taiwan, not today..not ever.
I prefer that US companies move out of China completely into neighboring countries like communist Vietnam. Taiwan is a lost cause even more so than the South in the Civil War. But, that's another post altogether.

 

[nimbus]

If only I had $10mil to invest…..

Citadel posts record revenues for hedge fund, securities ops in 2022 - source

Kenneth Griffin's Citadel marked record revenues in its hedge fund and electronic-trading businesses for 2022 despite turmoil in global capital markets, a source familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

 

[BLADEMDA]

If only I had $10mil to invest…..

Citadel posts record revenues for hedge fund, securities ops in 2022 - source

Kenneth Griffin's Citadel marked record revenues in its hedge fund and electronic-trading businesses for 2022 despite turmoil in global capital markets, a source familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

https://funds.aqr.com/funds/alternatives/aqr-managed-futures-strategy-hv-fund/qmhix#about

$5 million minimum. 50% return past 12 months. 1.7% expense ratio.

 

[pgg]

Why not?

China has now seen the tepid Western response to an invasion. They have a much more capable military than Russia and it would be an entirely different tactical approach since Taiwan is a small island.

Xi has consolidated power and is now openly talking about Taiwan belonging to China. An invasion may not happen this year, but I think it’s inevitable.

Taiwan has the benefit of a body of water between them and China. China is not going to swim to Taiwan.

They can raze and destroy the island, but that doesn't win them a prize. Taiwan has more antiship missiles than China has boats to float its Army over.

I'm agnostic regarding Taiwan ever becoming part of China again, but 100% it won't happen by force.

China is ****ed for at least a few more generations. They've made too many bad decisions in their master plan, which for some reason certain corners of the western world praise as if it's some kind of 4D chess long game. Their economic influence is in decline. They're decades away from becoming more than a regional military power - and that region only extends about 100 yards offshore.

 

[coffeebythelake]

Taiwan has the benefit of a body of water between them and China. China is not going to swim to Taiwan.

They can raze and destroy the island, but that doesn't win them a prize. Taiwan has more antiship missiles than China has boats to float its Army over.

I'm agnostic regarding Taiwan ever becoming part of China again, but 100% it won't happen by force.

China is ****ed for at least a few more generations. They've made too many bad decisions in their master plan, which for some reason certain corners of the western world praise as if it's some kind of 4D chess long game. Their economic influence is in decline. They're decades away from becoming more than a regional military power - and that region only extends about 100 yards offshore.

China isn't going to take Taiwan by force unless their hand is forced by political maneuvering across the strait. E.g. Taiwan explicitly declaring independence. They are happy with the current rhetoric and laying claim.

I wouldn't say China is in bad shape. The benefit of a one party system is that they can have a defined agenda that stretches decades rather than every 4 years. They have done very well for themselves over the past 30 years and will continue in that trajectory. Thry will have to focus on internal security issues, improving access to economic opportunities for its citizens and reducing the inequalities that exist now. They've already started to push to sustainable energies although they have a long way yet to go.

 

[Dr. Rude]

https://funds.aqr.com/funds/alternatives/aqr-managed-futures-strategy-hv-fund/qmhix#about

$5 million minimum. 50% return past 12 months. 1.7% expense ratio.

Risk and reward are linked. Just ask Cathy Wood’s investors.

 

[pgg]

China isn't going to take Taiwan by force

Agreed

unless their hand is forced by political maneuvering across the strait. E.g. Taiwan explicitly declaring independence. They are happy with the current rhetoric and laying claim.

Taiwan won't poke that bear because they too are happy with the current status quo of functional independence while China spouts delusional "one China" fairy tales in a face-saving act more transparent than the emporer's clothes. But even if they did attack with force, China would fail.

I wouldn't say China is in bad shape. The benefit of a one party system is that they can have a defined agenda that stretches decades rather than every 4 years. They have done very well for themselves over the past 30 years and will continue in that trajectory.

We'll have to just disagree. They have pulled hundreds of millions of people out of mud-hut subsistence poverty, so some credit is due, but the one-child policy set a demographic bomb that's going to screw them for the next 30+ years. They're already losing out on being the world's cheap labor / low-cost manufacturing hub to other South Asian nations. They made their progress at monumental environmental cost, the consequence sof which which will be a drag on their people and economy for the next century (at least). Their culture is not one of creation, competition, and innovation but rather derivative duplication, which can only get you so far. Their debt and other asset bubbles are so ginormously huge that they'd be visible from Mars, despite the CCP's lack of transparency.

They're ruled by a communist and totalitarian regime - it's lunacy to not see where that always ends.

Thry will have to focus on internal security issues,

What, like finishing the extermination of the Uyghurs?

improving access to economic opportunities for its citizens and reducing the inequalities that exist now.

Yeah, like that's going to happen! (Please read in Shrek's voice.)

Short of revolution, anyway.

They've already started to push to sustainable energies although they have a long way yet to go.

Yes, agreed, a long way to go - decades and generations. Even if they suddenly benefitted from a revolution that put Winnie the Pooh and friends out of business (unlikely) their problems are too deep, too wide, and too numerous.

Sure, a nation with a billion and a half people always has potential, but my point in discussing China here has always been that the conventional wisdom regarding China's inevitable Ascendency is not wise, it is not inevitable, and it certainly isn't imminent.

 

[dannyboy1]

Agreed



Taiwan won't poke that bear because they too are happy with the current status quo of functional independence while China spouts delusional "one China" fairy tales in a face-saving act more transparent than the emporer's clothes. But even if they did attack with force, China would fail.


We'll have to just disagree. They have pulled hundreds of millions of people out of mud-hut subsistence poverty, so some credit is due, but the one-child policy set a demographic bomb that's going to screw them for the next 30+ years. They're already losing out on being the world's cheap labor / low-cost manufacturing hub to other South Asian nations. They made their progress at monumental environmental cost, the consequence sof which which will be a drag on their people and economy for the next century (at least). Their culture is not one of creation, competition, and innovation but rather derivative duplication, which can only get you so far. Their debt and other asset bubbles are so ginormously huge that they'd be visible from Mars, despite the CCP's lack of transparency.

They're ruled by a communist and totalitarian regime - it's lunacy to not see where that always ends.


What, like finishing the extermination of the Uyghurs?



Yeah, like that's going to happen! (Please read in Shrek's voice.)

Short of revolution, anyway.


Yes, agreed, a long way to go - decades and generations. Even if they suddenly benefitted from a revolution that put Winnie the Pooh and friends out of business (unlikely) their problems are too deep, too wide, and too numerous.

Sure, a nation with a billion and a half people always has potential, but my point in discussing China here has always been that the conventional wisdom regarding China's inevitable Ascendency is not wise, it is not inevitable, and it certainly isn't imminent.

Are they really communists. I thought they had morphed into basically a capitalist dictatorship, just paying lip service to communism.

 

[pgg]

Are they really communists. I thought they had morphed into basically a capitalist dictatorship, just paying lip service to communism.

Well you're right of course, it's a brutal dictatorship like all others.

The USSR was a "capitalist dictatorship" too in which the leaders owned the means of production in every way but name, and lived lives of luxury and privilege, while the people were a starving, deprived class of slaves.

By the dictionary definition, there have never been any True communist regimes, in which the people peacefully work for the collective good, enjoy an equal share of economic output, and Party members are humble comrades in labor. Which is why dumb kids with Che shirts tell us it'll work, next time. No one's ever done communism right. Attempts always devolve into corrupt dictatorships. Like China.

The label is less important than the fact that having a non-democratic regime is utterly crippling to a nation's prospects. Exceptions that prove the rule might be hellholes like Saudi Arabia and the gulf states which survive on wealth extracted from the ground.

 

[dannyboy1]

Well you're right of course, it's a brutal dictatorship like all others.

The USSR was a "capitalist dictatorship" too in which the leaders owned the means of production in every way but name, and lived lives of luxury and privilege, while the people were a starving, deprived class of slaves.

By the dictionary definition, there have never been any True communist regimes, in which the people peacefully work for the collective good, enjoy an equal share of economic output, and Party members are humble comrades in labor. Which is why dumb kids with Che shirts tell us it'll work, next time. No one's ever done communism right. Attempts always devolve into corrupt dictatorships. Like China.

The label is less important than the fact that having a non-democratic regime is utterly crippling to a nation's prospects. Exceptions that prove the rule might be hellholes like Saudi Arabia and the gulf states which survive on wealth extracted from the ground.

Is that what is going on in china. I honestly don’t know. All governments, ours included, have a certain level of corruption. My impression was that china allows free enterprise to some degree and has a middle class with some amount of economic/social mobility.

 

[BLADEMDA]

Clear macroeconomic winner’​

Last year — a tough one for most asset classes — gold offered an effective hedge for investors, according to precious metals investment firm Sprott. It called the precious metal a “clear macroeconomic winner in relative and absolute terms.”
Bullion fell 0.28% over the course of the year compared to the S&P 500′s almost-20% slide, and has a track record of outperforming the market during downturns. Along with the flight to safety facilitated by soaring inflation and volatile financial markets, gold prices were also supported by central banks buying the precious metal at a rate not seen since 1967, according to WEF.

Gold trades near 8-month high and analysts expect its rise to continue

Gold notched an 8-month intraday high on Monday as the precious metal's strong start to 2023 continued, buoyed by lower yields and a weaker dollar.

www.cnbc.com

 

[lotsapain]

India is the new China, I wouldn't put all my eggs in the same basket

 

[BLADEMDA]

Tesla Drops Price of Model S and Model X by $5,000 as Biden’s New EV Tax Credit Rules Kick In

In January, Tesla cut its car prices in the U.S. and Europe by up to a whopping 20% on certain models. Now, it once again slashed prices, following the Biden administration's new guidance on which...

finance.yahoo.com

“We also note that Model Y will benefit from EV tax credits likely in 2023 now with these cuts which should be a further tailwind,” Ives wrote, adding that these price cuts could spur demand and deliveries by 12%-15% globally in 2023.

 

[cincincyreds]

Let’s start off with a prediction that gold catches a bid finally towards $2,000. This is just catch up for the inflation in 2022. It’s a slog in terms of stocks for the first half until the Fed drives inflation under 4%. That could happen this year. I predict a big rally at some point in 2023 of 10 percent or more. I’m a buyer of chip stocks this winter and expect an uptick in this sector for 2024.

if you know the market will go up in 2023 why not purchase calls on spy?

 

[anbuitachi]

2023 is off to a very strong start

 

[epidural man]

This year will be bad.

China reopening and living with Covid means more supply chain constraints, leading to worsening inflation in the US. The Fed will continue to raise and keep rates high for longer since inflation won’t abate and the job market will remain resilient. Any escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and it will be game over here with a full blown recession. Oh yeah, and China has taken notes and will invade Taiwan. Earnings will disappoint and stocks will fall.

You all can have your bonds, I will be loading the boat with TQQQ/SOXL for a 3-5 year horizon.

And finally, TSLA will trade down below $50, an appropriate valuation for a lousy car company.

Teach me.

I was going to get some TSLA at this price - but maybe I won't. I didn't know they were a lousy car company.

This is what I want to know.

Does their safety rating suck? Is it worse than Fords? or other cars?

What about their margins? Do they have much worse margins compared to GM, Ford, Toyota?

Are sales dropping each quarter?

What about EV's in general? Are they going away and we will go back to gas cars?

 

[GassYous]

Teach me.

I was going to get some TSLA at this price - but maybe I won't. I didn't know they were a lousy car company.

This is what I want to know.

Does their safety rating suck? Is it worse than Fords? or other cars?

What about their margins? Do they have much worse margins compared to GM, Ford, Toyota?

Are sales dropping each quarter?

What about EV's in general? Are they going away and we will go back to gas cars?

I don't know the answer to these but Elon musk is imploding, they just dropped their prices by thousands of dollars to shore up sales and I've heard so many complaints about their poor build quality and horrible customer service

 

[thinkorswim]

Teach me.

I was going to get some TSLA at this price - but maybe I won't. I didn't know they were a lousy car company.

This is what I want to know.

Does their safety rating suck? Is it worse than Fords? or other cars?

What about their margins? Do they have much worse margins compared to GM, Ford, Toyota?

Are sales dropping each quarter?

What about EV's in general? Are they going away and we will go back to gas cars?

I was simply referring to the valuation of the stock, which is still too expensive in my opinion. The company itself and EVs aren’t going anywhere.

Tesla had a P/E ratio over 200 last year and is sitting at around 40 right now. Toyota has a P/E of around 10 and other car companies are even lower. As much as people want to believe Tesla is ”more than a car company,” that just isn’t the case. At the end of the day, it turns out they only sell cars, and pretty cheaply made ones if you ask me.

 

[linkin06]

Teach me.

I was going to get some TSLA at this price - but maybe I won't. I didn't know they were a lousy car company.

This is what I want to know.

Does their safety rating suck? Is it worse than Fords? or other cars?

What about their margins? Do they have much worse margins compared to GM, Ford, Toyota?

Are sales dropping each quarter?

What about EV's in general? Are they going away and we will go back to gas cars?

They are consistently rated poorly in their reliability Tesla Jumps Four Spots, Still Near Bottom In Consumer Reports' Reliability Survey

Their margins are good but it’s about to shrink with these price drops.

People claim they are not a car company but a tech company, yet their self driving has never reached its original claims. It is rated lower than comma AI and super cruise by consumer reports

https://data.consumerreports.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/consumer-reports-active-driving-assistance-systems-november-16-2020.pdf

Largest automakers by market capitalization

List of the largest automaker companies by market capitalization.

companiesmarketcap.com

Just look at the market cap. It’s worth more than dozens of the other major car companies combined. Does it make sense? Are we all going to be driving only Tesla’s in the future? They are nice cars, but they’re about to face intense competitions. EVs IMO are the future. Much smoother ride, better torque, much easier to maintain. But I don’t envision an all Tesla future, which is what the market cap to me suggests.

 

[epidural man]

I was simply referring to the valuation of the stock, which is still too expensive in my opinion. The company itself and EVs aren’t going anywhere.

Tesla had a P/E ratio over 200 last year and is sitting at around 40 right now. Toyota has a P/E of around 10 and other car companies are even lower. As much as people want to believe Tesla is ”more than a car company,” that just isn’t the case. At the end of the day, it turns out they only sell cars, and pretty cheaply made ones if you ask me.

Speaking of Toyota, I saw a fuel cell car they make on the road the other day. I was shocked someone bought one.

 

[Lecithin5]

Taiwan has the benefit of a body of water between them and China. China is not going to swim to Taiwan.

They can raze and destroy the island, but that doesn't win them a prize. Taiwan has more antiship missiles than China has boats to float its Army over.

I'm agnostic regarding Taiwan ever becoming part of China again, but 100% it won't happen by force.

China is ****ed for at least a few more generations. They've made too many bad decisions in their master plan, which for some reason certain corners of the western world praise as if it's some kind of 4D chess long game. Their economic influence is in decline. They're decades away from becoming more than a regional military power - and that region only extends about 100 yards offshore.

If nothing other than their (historical) one child policy is catching up to them. China knows it made a catastrophic error in this policy

 

[anbuitachi]

If nothing other than their (historical) one child policy is catching up to them. China knows it made a catastrophic error in this policy

Don't underestimate. 1.4b ppl can accomplish a lot. China's outlook still looks very strong to me. This covid thing just proved it even more. Even with such extreme government controls (from lock down to sudden reversal) without major protests and instability shoes the government's control is very strong.

 

[Lecithin5]

Don't underestimate. 1.4b ppl can accomplish a lot. China's outlook still looks very strong to me. This covid thing just proved it even more. Even with such extreme government controls (from lock down to sudden reversal) without major protests and instability shoes the government's control is very strong.

Fair enough- I just think that something has to give (whether it’s population decline, uprising, etc). Nothing lasts forever. And I believe that we’ve got even bigger problems in this country…

 

[pgg]

Don't underestimate. 1.4b ppl can accomplish a lot. China's outlook still looks very strong to me. This covid thing just proved it even more. Even with such extreme government controls (from lock down to sudden reversal) without major protests and instability shoes the government's control is very strong.

You've got to remember that of those 1.4B people, a growing fraction are senior citizens who are worth negative economic output. Especially in a culture like China, in which elders are revered and supported by their children, this is a problem. This impending, growing burden on the younger generations is the essence of the One Child ****up.

Especially since younger generations aren't having lots of kids now that the policy has been lifted - like all other countries and cultures that have shifted from agrarian to industrial economies, population naturally grows more slowly as people choose to have fewer kids.

The grand irony of the problem is that China's people are presently choosing to have fewer kids (despite government incentives to have more!) just as they need to have more kids to make up for the enforced low fertility of the past few decades.

And this isn't even the biggest problem. China has. They're ****ed.

 

[Dr. Rude]

On the farm, kids are free labor. In the city they are an expensive indulgence.

 

[nimbus]

On the farm, kids are free labor. In the city they are an expensive indulgence.

They are practically free labor for a lot of business owners.

 

[pgg]

On the farm, kids are free labor. In the city they are an expensive indulgence.

Another big factor is that people living subsistence rural agricultural village lives generally don't have access to birth control the way city dwellers do. When women can choose when and how many kids they have, a lot fewer kids are born.

 

[NITRAS]

They are consistently rated poorly in their reliability Tesla Jumps Four Spots, Still Near Bottom In Consumer Reports' Reliability Survey

Their margins are good but it’s about to shrink with these price drops.

People claim they are not a car company but a tech company, yet their self driving has never reached its original claims. It is rated lower than comma AI and super cruise by consumer reports

https://data.consumerreports.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/consumer-reports-active-driving-assistance-systems-november-16-2020.pdf

Largest automakers by market capitalization

List of the largest automaker companies by market capitalization.

companiesmarketcap.com

Just look at the market cap. It’s worth more than dozens of the other major car companies combined. Does it make sense? Are we all going to be driving only Tesla’s in the future? They are nice cars, but they’re about to face intense competitions. EVs IMO are the future. Much smoother ride, better torque, much easier to maintain. But I don’t envision an all Tesla future, which is what the market cap to me suggests.

Honestly, we need two advancements for EV’s to become the future. One in energy storage (batteries) and energy production. Until then, internal combustion engines are as good or better in most practical ways.

 

[epidural man]

You guys talking about China should watch this short video. Opinions would be great.