P.S. DrMidlife, if you are reading this please don't kill me. I know you have advised me in the past, but that was before I heard from some ADCOMs! haha.
Not at all. I think assumptions getting thrown under the bus, periodically, are what keep me coming back. It's really interesting when this happens.
You have 2 schools that have given you inside scoop, which is fantastic. If you can get similar access to inside info at 10-20 schools, then you definitely don't need an SMP, right?
Problem is, the following are questions without answers, unless you know somebody inside:
1. Which schools will
keep looking at your app
after they see cumulative GPA?
2. Are schools that
don't screen before offering you a secondary (such as GW, which sends you the secondary invite about 30 seconds after you submit AMCAS)
more likely to consider trends behind cumulative GPA, or are schools that
do screen before offering secondaries (EVMS is on this list) more likely?
3. Are schools that get 5k+ apps worth applying to, if you need them to look past your top numbers?
The following anecdotal info, which (as with all anecdotes) is not to be confused with a body of relevant data, is what motivated me to get obsessed about GPA comeback details: with similar stats, in an otherwise strongly compelling app in '07, I applied to 36 well-researched MD schools, and only got partial love from my state's public school. For the record, that
sucked. Your postbac GPA is quite a bit better than mine, and I hope that's a huge screaming difference.
So what to do?
The cost of a bad bet, if you choose to
not do an SMP while you're applying MD, is that if you don't get an acceptance, you "lose" a year.
The cost of a bad bet, if you choose
to do an SMP while you're applying MD, is that your acceptance will likely be conditional on your completion of the SMP. If not (ie you can get your MD school to waive the requirement to complete programs in progress at time of acceptance), and your acceptance comes after 2nd semester starts, you're out the full cost of an SMP you ended up not needing. My classmates at EVMS, who got January/February acceptances back at their home state schools, had a really hard time being good sports about finishing the program. The SMP changed from being a hopeful challenging opportunity to being medicine you have to swallow. It's good for you regardless, but
wanting to do well is totally different from
having to finish.
I suggest that it's a waste of time to worry about deposits paid to SMPs. A couple hundred bucks to keep an option open is cheap insurance.
Pressure's on, big decisions!!!
Best of luck to you.