Hear me out, guys. As of now, we are polling at 36 to 1 for IS to OOS. This is an order of magnitude less OOS proportion of the total than what typically makes up the class (2% polled here versus 20% reality). Who is more likely to deny UNC's offer: IS or OOS acceptees? I would argue that OOS-accepted students would be more likely to go elsewhere. One, their other options will have comparable tuition costs since they are paying OOS tuition anyways. Two, they were accepted OOS which inherently have higher stats and open more doors to more prestigious programs around the country. I had an OOS friend committed to UNC, but ultimately backed out and went to Mayo.
If UNC planned on composing a WL based on the intention of filling A spots with those that back out with similar profiles (rural vs urban, ethnicity, sexual and gender orientation, etc.), then why would they have so few OOS WL spots? It would make sense for them to make the WL be composed of 20% OOS or arguably more. This fact (if true) challenges the claim that UNC refills A spots with WLers from similar profiles (assuming IS/OOS is a considered category in the profile). The claim that UNC refills spots based on who's in a similar category seems a little shaky now. I am not sure what that means for the WL selection process. But why would they ever have a transparent process? That's a crazy idea.
Limitations: maybe we have a selection bias towards IS on this thread for whatever reason, but a whole order of magnitude seems steep. Also, maybe the IS/OOS category is not heavily weighted. But if you look at MSAR statistics, UNC has hovered around 20% OOS for years, so idk.